BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Friday, 16 October, 4:01 p.m. ET · Source: Folha de S.Paulo, Meta court filing
Key Facts
- The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest country, elects its president in a runoff on Sunday 25 October between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
- What changed On Friday 16 October, Folha de S.Paulo reported internal Meta messages in which staff acknowledged restrictions that hurt Lula’s Instagram accounts.
- The numbers Lula’s campaign could not boost existing Instagram posts for about 24 hours from 9 October, and says about 1.3 million people missed its ads.
- Meta’s position Meta denies interfering in the election and blames technical faults that hit both campaigns.
- The court This week, Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE) ordered Meta to treat both campaigns equally or pay R$500,000 (about US$99,000) a day.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 76.4% chance of winning the 25 October runoff (16 October, 3:59 p.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 76% and Kalshi at 77% (Lula: 24% and 23%), as of 16 October, 4:20 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
- Still open The court has not said Meta manipulated anyone’s reach.
Internal Meta messages show that staff knew restrictions had hurt the Instagram accounts of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Folha de S.Paulo reported on Friday 16 October. Meta, the US owner of Instagram and WhatsApp, says technical faults caused the problems and that it favours neither side.
The vote on Sunday 25 October decides who runs Latin America’s largest economy, so a US platform’s reach rules are now part of the Brazil election 2026. Folha is one of Brazil’s largest newspapers, and its report follows a TSE order on Meta that we covered on Thursday.
What the Internal Messages Show
The messages were obtained by Folha and describe a period when Lula’s team could not boost existing Instagram feed posts for nearly 24 hours, from 9 October, ND Mais reported. The campaign estimates that about 1.3 million people missed its ads.
Meta’s own staff noted that Lula’s account looked “limited” compared with that of Flávio Bolsonaro, the conservative senator for Rio de Janeiro, according to Folha’s report. Staff also flagged unwanted Instagram and WhatsApp recommendations of profiles tied to Flávio, according to ND Mais.
Lula’s profile, meanwhile, had trouble appearing in searches, according to the same reports. Automatic profile recommendations of candidates are barred by the TSE, which is why the item matters.
How Meta Explains the Faults
Meta calls the claims of election interference “false and unsupported by facts”, according to Notícias ao Minuto. It blames global technical failures, one specific error corrected promptly, and equal application of Brazilian electoral rules.
In a filing to the electoral court on 14 October, Meta admitted it wrongly suspended Lula’s ad account on 23 September because of an error in automatic fraud detection, Correio da Manhã reported. The account came back after about an hour, and Meta removed seven irregular profiles.
Meta also said a global fault froze Reels view counters on 7 October in more than 100 countries. It says that fault hit both campaigns.
What the Electoral Court Has Ordered
Minister Marco Aurélio Bellizze of the TSE told Meta to treat both runoff campaigns equally, under a fine of R$500,000 (about US$99,000) a day. Our report on the court order on Meta explains that he found a flaw in Meta’s tool but no proof that it was deliberate.
Meta quoted the decision as saying the court does not claim, at this stage, that the company manipulated anything, Times Brasil reported. The new messages do not change that finding, but they give the court more to review before the vote.
What It Means for You
If you invest in Brazil or hold US-listed Brazilian shares, a dispute over a US platform can add noise to an already close race. Check the Brazil election odds alongside the polls rather than instead of them.
If you use Instagram or WhatsApp, the case shows how much of a modern campaign runs through reach rules written outside the country. A US company is now answering to a Brazilian court on how its code treats two candidates.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro a 76.4% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 23.5% (16 October, 3:59 p.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has drawn about US$184.8 million in bets.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 76.3% · Lula 23.5% (US$185 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 77% · Lula 23%
As of 16 October, 4:20 pm ET (21:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
The full text of the internal messages has not been published, so the exact wording and the staff involved are not public. It is also not known whether the TSE will ask Meta for more records before 25 October.
It is not known whether the restrictions changed any votes, and no poll measures that. Meta and Lula’s campaign each describe the same events differently.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did the internal Meta messages reveal?
Folha de S.Paulo reported that Meta staff acknowledged restrictions that hurt Lula’s Instagram accounts and noted unwanted recommendations of profiles tied to Flávio Bolsonaro. Meta says the causes were technical.
How many people missed Lula’s Instagram ads?
Lula’s campaign estimates about 1.3 million people missed its ads when it could not boost posts for nearly 24 hours from 9 October. Meta calls it a specific error that it corrected promptly.
Has the electoral court found that Meta favoured a candidate?
No. This week the TSE ordered equal treatment under a fine of R$500,000 (about US$99,000) a day, but it did not say Meta manipulated reach.
When is Brazil’s runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October. The winner takes office as president for a four-year term.
Who are the two candidates?
They are President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro, a conservative senator for Rio de Janeiro. Flávio is a son of former president Jair Bolsonaro.
Sources: ND Mais, 16 October 2026 (reporting Folha de S.Paulo); Times Brasil, 16 October 2026; Notícias ao Minuto, 16 October 2026; Correio da Manhã, 14 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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