The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts solid growth in most Portuguese-speaking economies through to 2027, with Angola set to accelerate and Cabo Verde and Timor-Leste maintaining a robust pace, while Mozambique is projected to recover gradually, with growth of 1% in 2026 and 2% in 2027, according to the World Economic Outlook published on Tuesday.
According to IMF data for Sub-Saharan Africa, Angola is expected to grow by 4.4% in 2026, up from the 3.1% estimated for 2025, before slowing to 3.3% in 2027. Inflation is, however, expected to remain high, albeit on a downward trajectory, falling from 20.2% this year to 10.6% in 2026 and 10.2% in 2027.
The Cabo Verde archipelago will remain among the best-performing Portuguese-speaking African economies, with growth of 5% in both 2026 and 2027, following an estimated expansion of 6.3% in 2025.
Inflation is expected to remain under control, at 1.2% this year and 2.8% in 2027. The IMF also forecasts a stable unemployment rate of 8.5% over the three years analysed.
In Guinea-Bissau, economic growth is expected to slow slightly from 5.8% in 2025 to 4.7% in 2026, before recovering to 4.9% in 2027. Inflation is expected to range between 2.1% and 2.5%, whilst the current account deficit is expected to remain high, fluctuating between 5.7% and 7% of GDP.
Mozambique, meanwhile, is expected to see a gradual recovery following an estimated contraction of 0.2% in 2025. The IMF forecasts growth of 1% in 2026 and 2% in 2027. Inflation is expected to rise gradually to 5.6% and 6.8%, respectively, whilst the external deficit will remain very significant, equivalent to 41% of GDP in 2026 and 37.8% in 2027.
As for São Tomé and Príncipe, the IMF anticipates modest economic growth of just 0.4% in 2026, accelerating to 1.9% in 2027. In contrast, inflation is expected to rise to 11% this year, before falling back to 9.6% in 2027.
Among the other Portuguese-speaking economies, and outside Africa, the IMF forecasts a slowdown in Brazil’s economic growth, from 2.2% in 2026 to 1.9% in 2027, reflecting monetary conditions that remain restrictive in order to bring inflation back to target, the gradual withdrawal of fiscal stimulus and uncertainty in the global economy.
Timor-Leste’s economy is expected to expand by 4% in 2026 and 3.7% in 2027, following an estimated growth of 4.5% in 2025. Inflation is expected to remain contained, standing at 2.1% and 2.2% in 2026 and 2027 respectively. The current account deficit, however, is expected to remain very high, equivalent to 38.5% of GDP in 2026 and 38.4% in 2027.
Meanwhile, growth in the Portuguese economy has been revised down to 2.1% this year and 1.9% in 2027.
The IMF emphasised that global economic activity continues to show resilience, benefiting from the momentum of the technology sector, the availability of financial reserves and the ability of economies to adapt to the impacts of geopolitical tensions.
Nevertheless, the institution forecasts a slowdown in global growth to 3.1% in 2026, followed by a recovery to 3.4% in 2027. Global inflation is expected to rise to 4.7% in 2026 before falling back to 4.1% the following year.
According to the Fund, energy-importing economies that are not included in the technology value chain face the most challenging outlook.
Source: Lusa