UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham attributed recent threats to an RAF base in Gloucestershire to Iran on Monday, but this may cause further problems for him in future.
Five men were arrested near RAF Fairford, which hosted long range bombers for the United States, including B1 and B52 bombers, on 27 September, after the police received a call concerning suspicious activity in the area.
The men were arrested on suspicion of offences under the Explosives Act, and on suspicion of preparing an act of terrorism. Two other men were subsequently arrested in connection to the incident. The men have all been released on bail.
Rob Geist Pinfold, a lecturer in Defence Studies at King's College London, told The New Arab that linking the incident to Iran could end up putting Burnham in a "tough spot".
"There was this hyping up that this was an imminent terror threat. The residents were evacuated. They were hosted at a local leisure centre, and then we went from that to the suspects being released on bail," Geist Pinfold said.
The US responded to the attacks by removing their planes from the base. Shortly after the US and Israel's attacks on Iran in February, the UK granted permission for the US to use RAF Fairford for operations against Iran. The base is strategically important because it has a long runway from which long-range bombers, including B-1 and B-52 bombers, can take-off.
"The UK government has to walk a very, very strange tightrope here of not being part of the war effort but the same time, unlike other European countries, allowing the US to use the bases in its territory as part of that war effort, which is why Iran painted a target on Fairford," said Geist Pinfold.
Support for the war on Iran is low in the UK. In April, 65% of Brits disapproved of US military strikes against Iran, according to a poll by Ipsos.
The US President is also unpopular among Brits. In September, a YouGov poll found that just 10% of people in the UK have a favourable opinion of Donald Trump. By comparison, 85% have an unfavourable opinion of him.
"This is a tough spot for Andy Burnham," Geist Pinfold said, "[He] might find himself doing the same thing as [former Prime Minister] Kier Starmer, trying to pretend the special relationship is still alive and well when there are very clear cracks in the surface."
"[The UK] certainly doesn't think the war was a good idea now but at the same time it doesn't want to alienate the US and at the same time it does see Iran as a national security threat," Geist Pinfold told The New Arab.
When asked if the UK might become more involved in the Iran war, Geist Pinfold said, "I would suggest it depends on what happens with our Gulf partners because at the end of the day, the UK like other European countries sees the Iran conflict as a threat to national security, but also potential opportunity simply because Gulf states are looking to diversify the security partnerships."
"For a country like the UK with a strong defence industry that also is looking for a quick fix, or at least a boost to its economy ASAP, that's a very, very attractive potential."
