BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Monday, 19 October, 1:45 a.m. ET · Source: Band debate broadcast of 18 October; Metrópoles, Gazeta Brasil
Key Facts
- The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest country, elects its president in a runoff on Sunday 25 October between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
- What happened On Sunday 18 October, lobbyist Roberta Luchsinger answered President Lula by video while the two candidates were still debating on live television.
- The accusation She said Lula and his ministers are lying about their relationship with her and with Lula’s son.
- Her legal position She faces three Federal Police inquiries and says secrecy orders stop her from saying everything she knows.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 78.5% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 21.5% (19 October, 1:28 a.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 79% and Kalshi at 79% (Lula: 22% and 21%), as of 19 October, 1:20 am ET; prices are bets, not polls.
- Still open What her three inquiries contain has not been made public.
Lobbyist Roberta Luchsinger told Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s president, “You are the liar” in a video posted while he debated on Sunday 18 October, ahead of the Brazil election 2026 runoff. The broadcast was the runoff debate on the Band television network, where he faced Flávio Bolsonaro, senator for Rio de Janeiro.
The exchange matters because Flávio raised her name during the debate, and Lula answered that her case belongs to Brazil’s Federal Police. The vote on Sunday 25 October decides who runs Latin America’s largest economy, which matters for Brazilian stocks, the real and trade with Washington.
What Happened During the Band Debate
Flávio Bolsonaro pressed Lula about Luchsinger and the accusations she made in an interview with CNN Brasil the day before, Metrópoles reported. Lula replied that she is a matter for the Federal Police, which will deal with her.
While the debate was still on air, Luchsinger posted a video on her social media accounts, Gazeta Brasil reported. She said Lula was calling her a liar, and added that she was not the liar there.
What Luchsinger Said About Lula and His Son
In the video she said, in Portuguese: “Mentiroso é você, mentirosos são seus ministros que estão mentindo sobre a relação comigo e com seu filho.” In English: “You are the liar, your ministers are the liars who are lying about the relationship with me and with your son.”
She did not give evidence in the video. Metrópoles reported that she faces three Federal Police inquiries and says secrecy orders and precautionary measures stop her from saying everything.
Why the Exchange Reaches the Runoff Race
Flávio Bolsonaro, the conservative candidate, put the Luchsinger case to the president on live television a week before the vote.
Our latest Brazil election polls tracker shows a race that is close, so a late story can matter at the margin. No survey has yet measured the effect of this exchange.
What It Means for US Readers
If you hold Brazilian stocks, bonds or US-listed shares of Brazilian companies, a late scandal in a close race can add to price swings until the result is known. The winner will also set Brazil’s course with Washington on trade and tariffs for the next four years.
For anyone following the vote from abroad, the useful test is whether new polls move after this weekend’s debate. A single exchange on television rarely decides an election, and a video from a figure under investigation is not proof of anything.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, traders give Flávio Bolsonaro a 78.5% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 21.5% (19 October, 1:28 a.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has drawn about US$187.8 million in total bets.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 78.5% · Lula 21.5% (US$188 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 79% · Lula 21%
As of 19 October, 1:20 am ET (06:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
The contents of the three Federal Police inquiries into Luchsinger have not been made public, and she says she cannot reveal them. It is not known whether any claim in her video will be tested by investigators before the vote.
It is also not known whether Lula will answer her directly or whether the exchange will change voters’ minds. Polls measure opinion on the days of the interviews and do not forecast the result.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is Roberta Luchsinger?
She is a Brazilian lobbyist who faces three Federal Police inquiries. She gave an interview to CNN Brasil on 17 October accusing the president.
What did Lula say about her in the debate?
Lula said her case is a matter for the Federal Police. The debate was held on the Band network on Sunday 18 October.
What did Luchsinger reply?
In a video posted during the debate she said Lula is the liar and that his ministers are lying about her relationship with him and with Lula’s son. She did not publish evidence in the video.
When is Brazil’s runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro. The winner takes office as president for a four-year term.
Sources: Metrópoles, 19 October 2026; Gazeta Brasil, 19 October 2026; ND Mais, 19 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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