Jalen Hurts' frightening blood clot has ended his season. A full recovery is expected, so dynasty managers rostering Hurts should expect things to return to normal next season. But what exactly is "normal" for a dual-threat QB turning 29 next August? Can fantasy managers expect continued strong play from someone who's been a top-10 fantasy QB in each of the past five years?
His contract runs through the 2028 season. He, Saquon Barkley, and DeVonta Smith (along with the ascending Makai Lemon and perhaps Dallas Goedert) should continue to form a relatively solid offensive nucleus. But their schedule won't be ideal, with games against the entire NFC North and AFC West. That group includes plenty of tough defenses.
The bigger issue, however, is that Hurts' fantasy production historically has hinged largely on his rushing attempts, yards, and touchdowns. The more active he is on the ground, the higher his ceiling. That's true for run-friendly quarterbacks in general. It also inevitably slows down.
In his second full season as a starter in 2024, Hurts averaged 10.0 carries per game, finishing with an incredible 630-14 rushing line. That plummeted last year to 421 rushing yards on 6.6 carries per game. Still fantastic, but not elite.
In five starts this season, he's averaged only 4.6 carries. Across a 17-game season, he was on pace for a 364-3 rushing line. For context, Marcus Mariota had a 256-1 rushing line in eight starts last season; over 17 games, he was on pace for 544-2. One wouldn't think Mariota is more run-friendly than Hurts. But there you go.
If you're investing in Hurts long-term, don't assume a clean bill of health will automatically return him to top-10 form. He'll need to go back to being a true dual-threat QB. We'll see what happens.
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This article originally appeared on Touchdown Wire: Updated Jalen Hurts dynasty value ahead of his expected 2027 return