Vanderbilt threw away the best chance remaining for a win this season. Almost literally. The Commodores were driving down the field with a chance to tie the game then Jared Curtis tried a disparation pitch towards Sedrick Alexander that was picked off. He also threw a pick 6 while up 7-0 in the 2nd quarter.
It was a painful game for a team that was trying to mount a late-season surge. They have put themselves into a situation where they have to beat 3 of #12 Kentucky, Mississippi State, #13 Alabama, #20 Florida, and #11 Tennessee to . Mississippi State is probably deserving of being ranked when they have QB Kamario Taylor, too. The Kentucky, Mississippi State, and Florida games are all on the road, too.
I am promoting a lot of topics to “Know Well” because at some point I have to start believing this team is who they are showing themselves to be.
Lessons We Know Well
Penalty issues are not just about total or yardage. Vanderbilt had a decent opening drive going until a Cole Spence False Start on 1st and 10 at the Arkansas 44 stalled it. After an incompletion and 3-yard run, Caleb Azubuike committed a False Start of his own. The 3rd and 17 pass went incomplete on a ripped throw up the middle that was just a bit too far behind Jayvontay Conner. That was a ruined chance for at least 3 since even the 44 is potentially in Brocket Launcher range. Lyndon Cooper was called for a hold to turn a 3rd and 10 into 3rd and 20, but the original play was an incomplete pass anyway. The 4th and final offensive penalty was an Illegal Snap to turn 3rd and 4 into 3rd and 9, which was converted. The defensive penalty was probably the most important though, as Miles Capers was called for a very sketchy Defensive Holding on a play that was a fumble by Arkansas and recovered by Capers. The edge rusher barely snagged a RB’s jersey trying to release into a route after feigning a block. The first two penalties, and the defensive holding likely had a big impact. It was a good improvement in penalty discipline, but the timing of the mistakes were disruptive.
Again, discipline moments go beyond just the fouls. And I think most of that was cleaned up except for the final Curtis interception and Junior Sherrill fumbling on the kick return right after the pick 6. It was 2nd and 12 at Arkansas’s 29 with Vanderbilt down 7 and holding all 3 timesout. A FG there is not the worst thing ever, even if they could not convert on 3rd down or get to short enough yardage to go for it on 4th down. Sherrill almost had his own Evan Hampton moment when he got the ball popped out in a moment that could have started an avalanche against Vanderbilt again. An experienced player like him has to be smarter.
Junior Sherrill had another big game. His 8 catches for 99 yards accounted for one third of Vanderbilt’s passing yards. That split is below the season average. He has 628 receiving yards while the team has 1,646. Outside of the kick return fumble, it was a very clean game by him.
Against a team allowing 4.37 yards per carry, Vanderbilt’s offensive line found some success on the ground for a 4.0 YPC average. Sedrick Alexander and Makhilyn Young averaged 5.7 and 5.0 yards, respectively. Jared Curtis at 1.6 YPC over 8 “carries” (Remember, sacks count as rushing attempts in college football.) and Jamezell Lassiter having 1 yards from 2 carries drug the average down significantly when there were only 29 rushing attempts in the game. For a team average just 3.58 YPC, it was a big improvement. They were forced into a couple of changes up front due to an injury to Gunner Givens. Orion Irving moved back to tackle in place of Beau Johnson, and CJ Williams slotted in at guard. Cooper was able to play the entire game, so Cade McConnel could stay at guard with Clinton Azubuike at the other tackle spot. They may have accidentally stumbled into a better front 5.
The kicking specialists are finding their groove. Brock Taylor did not have any FG attempts. Tyler Ebel was on it except for one kick. He had punts of 43, 41, 47, 27 (oof), and 57 yards. The first two were down at the Arkansas 8 and Arkansas 3. The third was returned for just 5 yards. The shorty was out of bounds at the Arkansas 47 and did lead to a TD. The 57-yard kick was only returned 6 yards. Without the one bad kick, it was a stellar day. He still managed to average a net of 40.8. Special teams getting on track would give this team a fighting chance.
The return game is not getting much done. Sherrill got a little bit of room on some kick returns thanks to Arkansas committing penalties after TDs or on PATs. He had 3 returns for an average of 26 yards with a long of 33. None of the punts were returnable. They just need to avoid the big mistakes like the fumbles on kick returns.
Jared Curtis is … doing talented freshman coming from bad high school competition things. He gets away with both interceptions 12 months ago because the competition was not good or smart enough to read and break on those plays. Curtis was 19 of 31 for 274 yards with 1 TD and 1 interception. He needs to do a lot better working through reads. The offense does often have 1- or 2-read passing concepts. He spends so much time locked on 1 option though. When he finds where the ball needs to go, it is going to get there with typically surgical precision and quickly. The arm talent is shown off more and more every game. The limitations, whether his or how the scheme is using him, are creating patterns opponents can key on too often. Curtis needs to show a bit more football IQ and get to secondary and tertiary options, who are often finding openings for Curtis to hit IF he finds them.
Lessons We Are Learning
The depth outside is starting to show up, especially Ja’Cory Thomas. Thomas is becoming almost automatic on sideline fades. His combination of strength and height is a major problem 1v1, and he uses that strength to beat press coverage while having just enough speed to separate when beating the press. It was nice to see Maurice Veney, Brycen Coleman, and Cole Adams make catches. Tristen Brown was open a few times but was never hit due to a couple missed reads and one bad throw.
The defense needs to be less scared. Folks are talking about blitzing being an issue, but they majority of snaps are 4- or 5-man pressures. The real problem is the coverage choices. They often drop too soft, which leaves access throws open when blitzing. When not bringing extra pressure, the coverage should be tighter, too. They can be more successful on a play-by-play basis with aggression. In my opinion, the risk is worth the reward. A few big plays per game would be outweighed by the chance to be successful or create momentum plays like sacks and/or turnovers.
The offense has to find ways to keep the misdirection and trickiness while using Curtis’s arm. I will say until I am blue in my face that Curtis can run the exact same offense Pavia did. Yes, there will be growing pains. Yes, it may ruin some games. Frankly, the Commodores are not expected to win any games the rest of the season. Go for it. Stop being so scared of failure and attack success.
The overarching issue is that Clark Lea keeps talking about identity and finding it. Identity is going to come from coaching attitude. Right now, the coaches are calling games tentative or downright scared. If they want to team to play with aggression, confidence, and belief, they need to call the game aggressively, confidently, and like they believe in the players. The current game planning and play calling communicates that the coaches feel like they have to protect the players from themselves instead of letting the players go win games.
Lessons for Further Study
How does the team handles such a bleak outlook on the season? After a 10-win season in 2025, the doom of missing a bowl is a dark cloud hanging over the program. The coaches and players can either fight like hell to reverse the narrative, or they can succumb to it. With every game except a road trip to Mississippi State being against a Top 20 team, nothing is coming easy.