Editor’s Note: This is the second in a five-part series examining some of the biggest questions facing the Twins this offseason.
On the final day of the regular season, Ryan Jeffers sounded like a man ready to test the free agent market.
Jeffers had just concluded one of the best seasons of his career, and while he said he loved the idea of a reunion in Minnesota, he loved the idea of “going out there and seeing what else is out there.”
“I’m excited for this,” Jeffers, one of the longest-tenured Twins, said. “I’ve worked really hard for this moment, for free agency, and that doesn’t mean the chapter here has closed. We’ll just see where we go.”
That begs many questions: Will the Twins offer Jeffers a qualifying offer? Would he accept? And if not, what will the Twins do behind the plate?
The qualifying offer is a one-year deal for the 2027 season set for $23.15 million, which is the average salary of the top 125 highest-paid players in the league. It could be offered to Jeffers as an impending free agent who has not yet received a qualifying offer and spent the entire season with the same team.
General manager Jeremy Zoll confirmed that he has the financial support of ownership to extend a qualifying offer to Jeffers if he deems it to be the correct baseball decision. Teams have five days after the conclusion of the World Series to extend the offer, after which players have a short period of time to accept or decline it, meaning a decision will come in November.
While that figure is more per year than Jeffers is expected earn in a free agent deal, it seems more likely than not that the 29 year old would decline it to seek a multi-year deal on the open market. If he does so, the Twins would receive draft-pick compensation, which would help them recoup value they missed out on from not dealing Jeffers at the trade deadline, as was heavily speculated about at the time.
The team that then signs Jeffers would then lose a draft pick of their own, which could potentially slightly dampen his market.
If he did accept the offer, he would return to the Twins for one season and become their highest-paid player, eclipsing starting pitcher Pablo López. But as the top free agent catcher on the market who’s coming off a strong season, Jeffers is likely to seek a multi-year deal, perhaps in the range of four years or so. With top pick Vahn Lackey in the system — he finished last season at Class-A Advanced Cedar Rapids — the Twins are unlikely to be the ones doling out such a deal.
If he does leave, as expected, the Twins will need someone to pair with veteran Victor Caratini, who is under contract for one more season. The Twins don’t have much catching depth in the upper minor leagues, but they could decide to turn back to Alex Jackson.
The Twins carried Jackson on the roster for much of the season, though he was seldom used after Jeffers returned from a hamate bone fracture in July. Jackson was twice able to pass through waivers unclaimed during the later months of the season. But neither Caratini nor Jackson would help the Twins replicate the level of production that would be lost with a Jeffers departure.
Other catchers available in free agency include names like Carson Kelly(Cubs), who has a mutual option which he is expected to decline, and Tyler Stephenson (reds). The Twins could also search the trade route to find a pair for Caratini. But no matter which direction they go, replacing the value lost if Jeffers departs will need to be a big point of emphasis this winter.
“(That) is a hole that we’ll need to plug, given the production he had in the lineup,” Zoll said. “We’ll continue to assess all that as we go.”