Saudi-backed forces launch campaign against Houthis in Yemen

Photo: Tom Fisk / Pexels

Saudi-backed forces have initiated a military campaign in Yemen aimed at defeating the Houthi militia, which currently controls significant portions of the country, including the capital, Sanaa. This operation is spearheaded by forces loyal to Yemen’s internationally recognized government and is backed by Saudi Arabia under the leadership of Rashad al-Alimi, chairman of the Presidential Leadership Council. The offensive has reportedly led to the recapture of several strategic areas near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, although the Houthis still maintain control over much of northern Yemen. The conflict reflects ongoing tensions since the Houthis seized Sanaa in 2014, prompting Saudi Arabia’s military intervention in 2015.

Key Takeaways

• The recent campaign by Saudi-supported forces appears to suggest increased military activity in Yemen, potentially impacting regional stability.
• Market pricing indicates a low probability of Houthi forces entering Aden by October 31, 2026, with odds at 5.1% for this timeframe.
• The launch of this campaign could indicate heightened tensions, but the Houthis’ control over northern Yemen suggests that a decisive defeat is unlikely in the near term.

What to Watch

Observers should monitor any developments that could lead to significant changes in the military balance, such as strategic gains by either side. Key indicators include reports of Houthi movements toward Aden or significant changes in Saudi or UAE military support. Additionally, any diplomatic efforts or ceasefire agreements could alter the current trajectory of the conflict. The situation remains fluid, and new developments may impact market perceptions of the likelihood of Houthi forces entering Aden by the specified dates.