BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Friday, 23 October, 6:10 PM ET · Source: Instituto Veritá
Key Facts
- The country Brazil, Latin America's largest country, elects its president in a runoff on Sunday 25 October.
- What happened On Friday 23 October, the Veritá polling institute released a new national survey of the Lula–Flávio runoff.
- The numbers Flávio Bolsonaro has 51.3% of valid votes and Lula 48.7%, with a 1-point margin of error.
- What changed An earlier Veritá survey had Flávio at 50.7% and Lula at 49.3%, so his lead grew from 1.4 to 2.6 points.
- Fieldwork 15,554 voters were interviewed on 18 to 22 October.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 76.5% chance of winning the runoff (Friday 23 October, 6:01 p.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 77% and Kalshi at 76% (Lula: 23% and 24%), as of 23 October, 6:00 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
A new Veritá poll puts Flávio Bolsonaro, the conservative senator for Rio de Janeiro, ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by 51.3% to 48.7% of valid votes. The survey was released on Friday 23 October, two days before the Brazil election 2026 runoff on Sunday 25 October.
Brazil Election Data Room
Runoff poll average: Flávio Bolsonaro 50.9%, Lula 49.1%
40 national polls from 20 pollsters since 4 October, updated hourly. Every poll, free to download.
Flávio's lead of 2.6 points is bigger than the 1.4 points in Veritá's previous survey. Our Brazil election polls tracker lists every runoff survey so readers can compare the institutes.
What the Veritá Poll Found
Veritá interviewed 15,554 voters across Brazil on 18 to 22 October, Exame reported. The margin of error is 1 percentage point, at a 95% confidence level.
The survey is registered with the electoral court (TSE) as BR-06070/2026, Times Brasil reported. Among all respondents, Flávio has 50.2% and Lula 47.5%, while 1.4% answered blank or null and 0.9% did not answer.
Valid votes leave out blank ballots, spoiled ballots and undecided voters. Pollsters publish that figure because it matches how the TSE will count the real result.
The 2.6-point lead is larger than the poll's 1-point margin of error. Other institutes, with smaller samples and wider margins, show closer races.
How the Gap Has Moved
An earlier Veritá survey, released on 21 October, had Flávio at 50.7% and Lula at 49.3% of valid votes, Exame reported. Flávio has gained 0.6 points since then, and Lula has lost 0.6.
One pollster's trend is not proof of a national shift. Each institute uses its own method, so surveys are best read together.
What It Means for US Readers
Brazil is the largest economy in Latin America and a major trade partner of the United States. Brazilian stocks, the real and US-listed shares of Brazilian companies can swing sharply until the result is known.
A new survey with a clear lead for one candidate adds to the debate among investors, yet other polls show a tighter race. The winner will shape Brazil's ties with Washington on trade, energy and security for four years.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, traders give Flávio Bolsonaro a 76.5% chance of winning the runoff and Lula 23.5% (Friday 23 October, 6:01 p.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has drawn about US$193.3 million in total trades.
Kalshi, a prediction market regulated in the US by the CFTC, also lists Brazil runoff contracts. These are bets, not polls, and prices can move within minutes of a new survey.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 76.5% · Lula 22.5% (US$193 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 76% · Lula 24%
As of 23 October, 6:00 pm ET (23:00 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
It is not known how the 0.9% who did not answer will vote, or how many of the 1.4% who gave blank or null answers will do so on election day. Veritá's earlier survey and this one are separate samples, so the 0.6-point move may partly reflect noise.
Any poll measures opinion on the days of the interviews and does not forecast the result. Turnout on Sunday 25 October will decide the outcome.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who leads Brazil's latest runoff poll from Veritá?
Flávio Bolsonaro leads with 51.3% of valid votes against 48.7% for Lula. The 2.6-point gap is larger than the 1-point margin of error.
What is the margin of error of the Veritá poll?
It is 1 percentage point up or down, at 95% confidence. The survey reached 15,554 voters on 18 to 22 October.
How did this poll change from the last Veritá survey?
Flávio rose from 50.7% to 51.3% of valid votes, and Lula fell from 49.3% to 48.7%. The gap widened from 1.4 points to 2.6 points.
When is Brazil's runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October. The winner will be president for a four-year term.
What are valid votes in a Brazilian poll?
Valid votes leave out blank ballots, spoiled ballots and undecided voters. They match how Brazil’s electoral court (TSE) reports results.
Sources: Exame, 23 October 2026; Times Brasil, 23 October 2026; Polymarket and Kalshi, 23 October 2026.
This article was drafted with automated assistance and reviewed before publication. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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