KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysian palm oil futures reversed earlier losses to hit a more than two-week high on Tuesday, as concerns over tighter supplies next year — due to El Niño and growing biodiesel demand — outweighed pressure from currently high stockpiles.
The benchmark palm oil contract for December delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange rose 45 ringgit, or 0.97%, to 4,682 ringgit ($1,146.43) a metric ton, the highest closing price since September 24.
The bearish September stocks are already reflected in the market as it had already weakened before and after the release of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board’s data, said Cheang Kang Wei, agricultural commodities analyst at the Singapore-based StoneX brokerage.
Malaysia’s palm oil stockpiles in September surged to 3.51 million metric tons as production hit an all-time high, surpassing market expectations and reaching unprecedented levels.
However, Cheang said that the key question now is whether stocks can continue rising in October, noting that inventories could still remain elevated, but the pace of the build should start slowing.
Stock growth should begin moderating by November if exports hold above 1.5 million tons while production stabilises around 2.0 million tons, Cheang added. But if demand disappoints while production remains near record levels, stocks could stay above 3.5 million tons for longer and continue weighing on prices.
“The market is also increasingly looking beyond the current inventory situation and focusing on potential supply risks in 2027, including the lagged impact of El Niño and Indonesia’s growing biodiesel demand under B50,” he said.
Cargo surveyors estimated that exports of Malaysian palm oil products for October 1-10 rose between 33.5% and 37.7% from a month earlier.
Oil prices fell as traders assessed supply risks from attacks on Saudi Arabia while weighing the prospect of additional diesel supplies from Russia.
Weaker crude oil futures make palm a less attractive option for biodiesel feedstock.
Dalian’s most-active soyoil contract fell 0.65%, while its palm oil contract shed 0.77%. Soyoil prices on the Chicago Board of Trade were up 0.55%.
Palm oil tracks the price movements of rival edible oils, as it competes for a share of the global vegetable oils market.