Last time we discussed a relief free agent, it covered Adrian Morejon needing to be on the Royals' radar. This go-around, we will be discussing why the Royals need to look at David Bednar as they look to rebuild one of the worst bullpens in the league.
As always, starting with the basics, Bednar put together a strong 2026 with a 2.47 ERA, 35 saves, and four blown saves in 69.1 innings of work. He had a 1.9 fWAR in 2026, and that made it his fifth season with an fWAR over 1.0 since 2021. Let's dive a little deeper into the numbers to see what he would offer the Royals in the bullpen.
The Splitter was the Key for Bednar in 2026
2026 was the year of the splitter for David Bednar and among qualified pitchers, he had the best one in terms of run value. His splitter had a run value of 14, and it isn't a surprise that hitters only hit .149 and slugged .189 against that offering. In his career, the splitter was always his third pitch as his fastball and curveball were deadly for most of his career.
It was also the first season in Bednar's career where his splitter was the primary pitch as he threw it 41.2% of the time. Mix in his 4-seam fastball that has good velocity and good arm-side run, and it makes sense why he was able to keep batters off balance all season.
The revamped pitch mix allowed Bednar to have one of the more aesthetically pleasing Baseball Savant pages as well, because most of it is deep red. The standouts in his percentiles are his staggering 99th percentile chase rate (38.4%), 89th percentile barrel rate (4.9%), 88th percentile whiff rate (30.8%), and 89th percentile ground ball rate (51.6%).
This profile fits what the Royals both like and need because he gets a lot of his own outs while also letting his infield do a fair amount of work. Another bonus is the fact that over his past two seasons, he has converted 62 of 69 save attempts, which is an 89.9% save rate. The Royals badly need stability in the back of the arm barn as they nearly had as many blown saves (26) as saves (38).
Bednar has been a consistent force in the back of bullpens in the 2020s and the Royals should be in the market for him, but there are some concerns in his profile and market.
Going to Be Expenisve and Concerns with Arsenal
Staying within his profile, there is a slight concern in if his fastball and curveball can bounce back from a down year in 2026. His 4-seam has been his defining pitch, but in recent years it has been getting hit more and more often. In 2026, it got hit at a .282 clip, which is the highest it has been hit. It also got slugged at a .423 rate, but the expected numbers state that he got a little unlucky at times with the pitch.
His curve, on the other hand, was really bad as it got hit at a .286 clip and slugged at a .536 rate. Bednar still gets whiffs on the curve at 39.5%, but when batters make contact with it, they make hard contact. Despite the concerns with both pitches, the high groundball rate and low HR/9 rate (0.52) should make for a good combo at Kauffman Stadium.
Now, for the real kicker, at least for the Royals. Similar to Morejon, Bednar will command a strong market, as both pitchers could make upwards of $15 million AAV (annual average value) on their next deals. Bednar made $9 million with the Yankees in 2026 and will garner more in the offseason. Spotrac has his market value estimated at a 3-year, $47.1 million deal, similar to Robert Suarez's deal with the Braves.
Now, the Royals have given out a similar deal to Carlos Estevez, which was a 2-year pact worth $22.2 million, so it isn't unexpected if they pursue Bednar. As far as projections go, the Royals are more likely to approach Bednar than Morejon, given there are rumors that Morejon could get a deal worth $100 million, according to Densis Lin of The Athletic.
Conclusion
If the Royals want to improve the back end of their bullpen, Bednar is a prime candidate for it, as he has been one of the better closers of the 2020s. He has been steady, reliable, and has shown the ability to adapt when needed, and the Royals should be in the market for him. The issue lies in whether they are willing to spend that much on the bullpen.
Related Articles
Add us as a preferred source on Google