The race to the WTA Finals is coming down to the wire, and it will be a photo finish.
With seven of the eight spots locked in, only three players remain eligible to take the final spot: Karolina Muchova, Iga Swiatek, and Marta Kostyuk. Muchova leads the pack with 4735 points on the year, followed by Swiatek with 4190, and then Kostyuk with 3921.
Swiatek had the chance to pull ahead had she won the Wuhan title, but she was upset in the semifinals by Maja Chwalinska. Swiatek wasn’t at 100% during the match, but it remains to be seen if the injury will affect her at future tournaments. If it does, her chances of making the WTA Finals become even more slim.
Since 2020, Swiatek hasn’t missed an edition of the WTA Finals, taking home the title back in 2023. This is the first year since 2021 that Swiatek hasn’t won a Grand Slam title, and aside from her stellar week in Toronto she doesn’t quite have the results to back up the lack of a Major title.
Muchova is also Slamless this year, but she’s had a career-best season in terms of results and consistency. Playing healthy for a majority of the season, Muchova won her first WTA 1000 title and made the Wimbledon final. She actually sits seventh, not eighth in the WTA race, but Linda Noskova’s Wimbledon title has automatically qualified her ahead of Muchova.
As for Kostyuk, a first WTA 1000 title and two maiden Grand Slam semifinals have kept her in the conversation all season.
It’s imperative for Swiatek and Kostyuk to pick up as many points as they can and do so quickly, while Muchova has a cushion and room to rest. While Muchova will take next week off, Swiatek and Kostyuk are set to compete at the WTA 500 in Ningbo, with Swiatek seeded second and Kostyuk seeded third. Neither player can overtake Muchova even with a title run, but a title for Swiatek would get her close and a title for Kostyuk could allow her to overtake Swiatek, depending on Swiatek’s results. Both players have potential tough opening matches, with Marie Bouzkova looming for Swiatek and Ekaterina Alexandrova on the cards for Kostyuk. Should both of them play to their seed, they would meet in the semifinals, a match that would have huge implications for the race.
Swiatek and Kostyuk are also both on the entry list for Tokyo, a 500 the week after. If either player can put together a good run at both tournaments, that could launch them ahead in the race, especially since Muchova isn’t entered in that tournament or any other that week. The Tokyo entry list is even stronger than Ningbo, though, with Elena Rybakina, Elina Svitolina, and Iva Jovic also set to compete.
If the spot isn’t decided by the end of Tokyo, there are 250s all three players can play, but it would be an extremely tough turnaround to get to Indian Wells the week after for the WTA Finals. None of the three players are on the entry list for either of the tournaments that week, framing Ningbo and Tokyo as the tournaments that will decide who plays in California on November 9th.
The Last Word
With Muchova opting out of both tournaments, the fate of Swiatek and Kostyuk rests solely in their own hands. It is their results that will make or break their trip to the WTA Finals, and it’s a tough but doable path for both.
Last year, Elena Rybakina qualified for the WTA Finals in the eleventh hour through a run in Tokyo and went on to win the WTA Finals title and have a career-best year this season. This spot is more than just a reward for strong results this year, it’s a potential jumping off point for next season.
Muchova, Swiatek, and Kostyuk have all been important players in the WTA’s narrative this season, and it’ll be a deserved showing at the WTA Finals for whoever does make it. And for the other two, it’ll be back to the drawing board for next year.
Main Photo Credit: REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz