Brandin Podziemski is expected to be a starter who plays heavy minutes for the Golden State Warriors this season.
But Podz will miss the season opener against the Lakers on Wednesday with lower back soreness.
Of course, Podz's absence will force a change in the starting lineup. Additionally, the 23-year-old shooting guard not playing his expected allotment of 30-32 minutes will have downstream effects on the rotation.
Starting Lineup (First 5 Mins of 1st, 3rd Qs)
PG: Stephen Curry
SG: De'Anthony Melton
SF: Gui Santos
PF: Yaxel Lendeborg
C: Draymond Green
Melton is the obvious choice to replace Podz in the starting lineup. I have argued in the past that Melton should start even when Podz is healthy.
Overall, Podz is a better player who should get more minutes than Melton. But as a Curry backcourt partner, Melton is arguably a better fit than Podz due to his superior on-ball defense.
Next 4 Mins of 1st and 3rd Qs
Lineup: Curry, Richard, Payton, Santos, Horford
Georges Niang was checking in before Gary Payton II in most preseason games, but I'm guessing Steve Kerr will notice the need for Niang's three-point shooting in the non-Curry lineups.
Will Richard wouldn't normally check in for mid-first-quarter minutes, but with Podz out, he gets more run.
Last 3 Mins of 1st and 3rd Qs
Lineup: Williams, Melton, Niang, Lendeborg, Bassey/Ike
Brandon Williams checks in with three-point specialist Niang, which is intentional to give Williams more spacing to attack the paint.
Charles Bassey is questionable to play with knee tendinitis. If he can't go, Graham Ike will get these minutes.
First 4 Mins of 2nd and 4th Qs
Lineup: Williams, Richard, Niang, Green, Horford
Green and Al Horford check back in, giving Green a stretch in which he isn't playing center.
Next 4 Mins of 2nd and 4th Qs
Lineup: Curry, Melton, Payton, Lendeborg, Horford
This lineup would benefit from having Podz's shooting over Melton's or Payton's, but the Warriors will have to make do with some offensive limitations.
Closing Lineup (Last 4 Mins of 2nd and 4th Qs)
Lineup: Curry, Melton, Santos, Lendeborg, Green
The Warriors go back to the starting lineup, which is a no-brainer considering the quartet of Curry, Melton, Santos and Green posted a plus-19.2 net rating last season, per Cleaning the Glass.
Lendeborg's offense should make the lineup even more lethal, and his on-ball defensive issues shouldn't be exposed as much with Green covering for his (and everyone's) mistakes.
Minutes Distribution
Curry: 34
Lendeborg: 32
Melton: 32
Green: 26
Santos: 26
Horford: 24
Payton: 16
Richard: 16
Williams: 14
Niang: 14
Bassey/Ike: 6
Final Thoughts
The Warriors might have Curry play two or three minutes less than 34 as he's been ramping up more slowy this season, but I'd imagine they would max him out at 34 if needed.
I suspect Draymond Green will play closer to 28 minutes while Horford will play closer to 22, but accounting for that would have forced me to make more subbing intervals that would have been a more confusing reader experience.
The biggest increases in minutes from Podz's absence go to Melton and Richard. Podz is a more reliable three-point shooter than them, but it's not like Melton and Richard can't knock down open shots.
It would go a long way for the Warriors if those two guards get off to a hot start this season from the three-point line.
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