As happened in the first round 21 days ago, this Sunday, October 25, 158 million Brazilians are eligible to participate in the elections that will decide who will be the new president of the largest country in Latin America: leftist Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva or right-wing Flavio Bolsonaro. The final decision will not only affect the country’s politics and direction, but also those of the entire region, which has been moving toward the right.
There is a clear trend that has been consolidating. Of the last 15 presidential elections in Latin America, the opposition has won 13, regardless of the political or ideological orientation of the outgoing governments. Ecuador, Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Peru and Colombia shifted to the right in just 18 months, and the common denominator is not ideology: citizens have unresolved concerns about security, the economy and corruption.
Brazil is, along with Mexico, the last bastion of the democratic left in the region. But progressivism has been suffering serious erosion within individual countries due to unfulfilled promises, the empowerment of corruption and, in most cases, the inability to guarantee security. Beyond their borders, progressive projects have been affected by the image of the totalitarian left-wing regimes in Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua.
Brazil Votes Amid the Crisis of the Left
Voters have been favoring right-wing candidates over left-wing ones because they see in the latter the possibility, however remote, that they could lead to dictatorships such as the Chavista regime in Venezuela (currently under the charge of siblings Delcy and Jorge Rodriguez), that of Miguel Diaz-Canel, who inherited power from the Castros in Cuba, or that of the Ortega-Murillo couple in Nicaragua, which modifies the constitution at will to guarantee that control of the country remains in the hands of their heirs.
Progressivism is also paying the price for having adopted an indifferent, if not complicit, stance toward the excesses of those regimes. In this international context, the influence exerted by U.S. President Donald Trump and his ‘Donroe’ doctrine has been playing an important role. It is an update of the old Monroe Doctrine, which has guided relations between the northern power and the countries south of the Rio Grande since 1823 under a simple but powerful phrase: “America for the Americans.”
Against this international backdrop, Lula da Silva and Bolsonaro are facing off in a decisive contest to reverse the results of the first round on October 4, when the difference between them was minimal: Bolsonaro captured 47.03% of the total votes, while Lula da Silva obtained 45.16%. This Sunday, it will finally be known who will hold the keys to the Planalto Palace in Brasilia.
Brazilians will decide whether to hand those keys to 84-year-old Lula da Silva, who has governed for three terms and represents the continuation of a left-wing agenda combining social programs, state intervention to reduce poverty and public investment; or to 45-year-old Bolsonaro, who promises to follow the path set by his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, with a right-wing orientation, an emphasis on security and greater room for private initiative.
Between a Bureaucratic and Welfare-Oriented State and a Small State
One of the most recent polls showed a tie, with a slight decline for Bolsonaro, who stands at 45% compared with Lula’s 44%. The Quaest poll, commissioned by Globo and released last Wednesday, also detected a slight increase in undecided voters among women, voters who support neither Lula nor Bolsonaro, and those who receive Bolsa Familia benefits.
Precisely, 20 million families living in poverty began receiving extra money this week, the last before the presidential elections. The 15% increase in the amount of Bolsa Familia benefits announced by President Lula da Silva in September, shortly before the first round, is reaching the pockets of those most in need just before Sunday’s election.
Lula has implemented a package of measures over the past year with the electoral campaign in mind, totaling nearly 300 billion reais (US$57 billion) for the remainder of 2026 and 2027, according to Folha de S.Paulo. These are additional allocations that will swell a public debt equivalent to 82% of GDP, which the man elected to govern for the next four years will have to contend with. Bolsonaro, by contrast, is promising a major spending slash, saying he will maintain Bolsa Familia and other social programs, although he has not specified how.
This dispute between a large, bureaucratic state defended by the left, generally through the creation of politically motivated jobs, a surge in hiring and the promotion of welfare dependency (all of which earns it votes), and the right’s proposal for a small state without so much bureaucratic fat that reduces public spending, lies at the heart of electoral disputes across the continent.
Brazilians will decide this Sunday which option they prefer, but they will also largely shape the direction of the region for the coming years. More than the 108 million people who participated in the first round 20 days ago are expected to turn out.