The second NBA game Mitchell Robinson played came when the Knicks hosted the Celtics early in 2018. The second game this season will be Robinson’s first against his former team.
Nine years ago the Knicks won 17 games; Robinson finished eighth for Rookie of the Year, behind such luminaires as Deandre Ayton, Collin Sexton, Josh Okogie and Marvin Bagley III. They’ve both come a long way since.
No one knows a weak spot like a former lover, and the Knicks and Robinson were together for eight years. He's undoubtedly already shared intelligence about his old flame with Joe Mazzulla and friends. The Knicks are just as aware of where Mitch struggles. There are at least three areas they could look to exploit Friday in an unusually big early-season game in Boston.
1. Free throws
If you’re older than 60, the first name that comes to mind when you think “all-time poor free-throw shooter” is probably Wilt Chamberlain. If you’re older than 40, it’s Shaquille O’Neal.
Both were better than Mitch.
Robinson hasn’t made 50% of his free throws in a full-ish season since he was coached by David Fizdale and Mike Miller. His last two seasons playing more than 17 games, he made just 40%. For his career in the playoffs he’s a 36% free-throw shooter, and dropping after making just 29% last year.
The Celtics are not going to get 38 points from Paul George many nights, unlike in their opener. Their preference offensively is to take threes and more shots from the field than their opponents. One way to counter both: foul Robinson, especially when the C's are in the penalty.
Do it intelligently, natch—the Knicks aren’t deep enough at center to risk Karl-Anthony Towns or Andre Drummond to foul trouble. Paging James Wiseman: it’s your time to shine. Hack-A-Mitch didn’t always work in Mazzulla’s favor against the Knicks. Let him double-down on the bad taste by turning that schtick against its creator.
1. The Knicks have an option the Celtics don’t
Last year in the regular season, KAT and Robinson had a two-man lineup rating of +2.9 in a little under 300 minutes together. In the playoffs they paired up less, yet were far more effective (+15). The Celtics signed Robinson to make themselves better, but also to make the Knicks worse. And yet one thing that hasn’t changed since then is which team is better built to go double-big.
Robinson has never attempted a three-pointer in the NBA. Neemias Queta has taken 11 and missed 11. Last year, Towns and Drummond combined to make 145 threes on 37% shooting.
There’s a good chance Boston will have Robinson guarding Josh Hart, a gamble many teams try. The thinking being Hart doesn’t require air-tight coverage and Robinson is entirely capable of recovering to the arc to either contest Hart from deep or catch up after he attacks the closeout.
But what if the Knicks go double-big?
If Robinson or Queta get in serious foul trouble, then Boston has to bust out Luka Garza, who is Plan C for a reason. The Knicks could even give Wiseman minutes, as he could be the rim-runner to KAT or Drummond’s floor-spacer. Size tends to cause smaller teams problems.
If Robinson has to deal with guarding Towns while fighting both he and Drummond on the glass, there’s a chance he picks up some fouls. If Boston has to go double-big to match, its offense suffers from the lack of shooting; if Boston sticks with one center, the Knicks playing two betters their odds of controlling the offensive glass and the possession game, which is central to the Celtics’ approach.
3. Mitch and his minutes limits
Robinson hasn’t averaged 20 minutes a game since Julius Randle was a Knick. He played 18 when Boston visited Detroit. Last year during the regular season, he played 20 or fewer 63% of the time; the only playoff game he reached 20 was the title-clincher.
Robinson is like an asteroid: undeniably impactful, but for the most part rare.
When he’s in the game Friday, the Knicks will look to get him moving on defense, ideally away from the rim. As KAT and Drummond are both mostly floor-bound, Wiseman is the one Knick who has the height and hops to hold Mitch’s attention when rolling after a pick.
If Robinson is trailing the runner, he has his back turned to the offense; if he isn’t, it’s a dunk for Wiseman. If he focuses on shutting down Wiseman, New York will gladly turn to one of four better offensive options.
As the Knicks witnessed many times the past eight seasons, when Mitch is on the bench that’s the time to attack the rim as much as possible. If Robinson is compromised by fouls, can Queta go full-bore defensively, knowing foul trouble for him means breaking out the Garza tourniquet? For every question, a counter; for every counter, another question.
In Robinson’s first Knick/Celtic game back in 2018, the Celtics won. You probably could’ve guessed their plus-minus leader that night was Jayson Tatum. You probably wouldn’t have guessed second on the team was Aron Baynes. Baynes wasn’t a star that night; he just did his job well-enough to make a difference.
The Knicks hope Towns, Drummond or Wiseman have a similarly effective evening. If they do, the Celtics will be the team facing questions about their winless start.
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