…Tracing Wike’s ‘rainbow’ trademark
Several persons who have worked closely with Nyesom Wike in the Niger Delta give insight, saying anytime he wants to contest for position, he innocuously floats a political group that would appear to work for the party he belongs to, but at the appropriate time, the group would spring fire and displace the parent party. So, the group would feed on the parent party and spring surprise when ready, and discard the carcass.
Blessing Nwikina, a man who served in the information womb of the Rivers State Government and worked with all governors and principal officers of the Brick House, pointed to a familiar body (GDI – Grassroots Democratic Initiative) Wike formed before 2015 with which he overthrew the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in Rivers State.
With GDI, the chairman, the chairman, became the chairman of the PDP while Wike replaced Chibuike Rotimi Amaechi as governor, and has worked hard to keep Amaechi or his supporters out of power.
Nwikina, a well-known public commentator, writer, and former government media official, thinks history is about to repeat itself but this time at the national level.
He thus regretfully said: “It is just that we are a people who forget so easily. If you recall, when the buildup to the election of the minister, then as a governor, was around the corner, and then people were angry that he was forcing himself, another Ikwerre man, after Amaechi to become a governor. People were opposed to it.
“Before then, he came up with a surreptitious group they called GDI, which later metamorphosed into the political bloc which he used to hijack the election then. It’s the same tactics which he wants to export to the national level, and they now call it Rainbow Coalition.”
The information expert and political analyst stated: “My own description of it is that it’s just the insincere strategy of someone who is used to fraudulent achievements and fraudulent tactics. If he was sincere, he could have declared his intention, and not to come under Rainbow Coalition to foster an underlying tool of his political ambition beyond 2031.
“It’s unfortunate that the polity or the people do not see anything about a tactic that holds no promise. I mean, how can you foster lyrics over achievements? I don’t know what to point to in terms of either physical or doable achievement that you can say, “These are what he has achieved.”
He said election is not a war. “Elections are the decisions of people, or supposedly. But when you say election, ‘I will do election, I will win, I will’—that means you are insulting the people who vote because you’re trying to tell them that owning a PVC, going to the polling booths, and voting is a waste of time because. You are saying, ‘I already captured it.’”
Rainbow as Wike’s brand:
Many say now that GDI has served its purpose and produced influential partners who have now joined Wike to move to the national level, this group has transformed to the Rainbow Coalition, but maintaining all its modus operandi.
Since Wike even while he was still governor fell in love with the rainbow concept, he began painting all his businesses in rainbow colour. Some of his fierce followers call him ‘high tension’. Soon, his chain of supermarkets began to be known as ‘Hypercity’, but with rainbow colours. From these businesses, observers get the message of power and coalition.
Wike’s friends and foe alike believe the All Progressives Congress (APC) Governors were right to show fear over the intendments of the Rainbow Coalition post 2027.
Eze Chukwuemeka Eze, a chief and strong ally of both Amaechi and Atiku Abubakar, contributing to this inquiry, the APC Governors’ fear is very justified if people were to consider the brain and character behind the ‘Rainbow Coalition’, who he said has established himself as a deadly strategist and schemer.
He said: “Wike, not minding my different opinion about most of his political actions, is someone who pursues and commits whatever is at his disposal to accomplish his mission whether such a mission is right or not right.
“Wike reasoning of setting up the Rainbow Coalition is nothing but to prepare for his 2031 presidential election; and whatever he needs to destroy or dismantle to achieve that makes no meaning to him.
“In this regard, if it entails endangering the reelection of Bola Ahmed Tinubu or ensuring that most of the APC Governors are not reelected makes no meaning to him.”
Eze said the only person that seems to understand the danger that Wike portends is the President’s wife who he said has voiced out the danger that Wike’s Rainbow Coalition portends to the reelection of her husband.
“Wike ensured that PDP, Nigeria’s most outstanding political party, is destroyed. So, what makes him not to destroy APC which he sees as a cancerous party.
“It is too late to checkmate Wike as he has vowed to see that most of the Governors are not reelected.
“If Wike’s 20231 election bid is to be truncated, it is for Nigerians to ensure that Tinubu is not reelected to save Nigeria, not necessarily about Tinubu’s evil plots against Nigeria and Nigerians with his proposed taxes and undemocratic laws to accomplish his third term agenda but save Nigeria from being sold off by Wike if he is to succeed him in 2031.”
The north may match him money for money: Atoivgba, middle-belt voice:
Pockets will decide:
Garshagu Atovigba, an associate Professor of Mathematics Education from the Moses Orshio Adasu University of Makurdi (MOAUM), in his contribution as a onetime editor and publisher and now a lecturer, also believes that Rainbow Coalition is a pet project to upstage the ruling party and the major opposition parties to emerge as the next power force for Aso Rock.
He told BusinessDay: “Whether Rainbow Coalition may make impact at 2027 and 2031 elections? That depends on the size of their pocket and whether they will remain cohesive up to 2027 and 2031 elections.
“If Tinubu believes in them and grants them enough funds they shall definitely pull the strings for him at 2027 polls. Because elections hinge much on resources in the hands of stakeholders especially local opinion leaders of which the Wike group are opinion leaders in their localities.”
Atovigba did not factor Wike’s deep pocket and his years of accumulation plus his control of Rivers State and Abuja.
The professor went on to say: “Rainbow Coalition may succeed if they remain cohesive at 2027 elections by fixing Tinubu reelected and possibly winning some state governorship seats. The idea is to survive at state levels and to control resources of the states of individual members of the coalition.
“Control of resources is at the heart of politics in all societies. At federal level the coalition can easily succeed in having Tinubu elected if Tinubu releases enough funds for them to do what the president is aspiring for. Nigerian electorate hardly vote candidates owing to their merits but what local influencers tell them. The coalition members are local influencers in their localities. But is the coalition found in each state of Nigeria? No. They are not much available in most northern states.
“First, Kwankwaso still controls Kano which stakes second highest registered voters. Second, 19 northern state governors have been pooling N2b or N38b monthly under the toga of security funds. But security toga is an alibi for what those govs would do both at 2027 and 2031. If 19 northern govs unanimously support Tinubu then Tinubu automatically gets reelected.
“Their N38b monthly times six years would pool N2.592 trillion by 2031 and that will be enough funds to field one of them as the next president of Nigeria in 2031. They will overwhelm the rainbow coalition in 2031. Thus, in summary the 19 northern governors are a threat to the Wike-led Rainbow Coalition both at 2027 and 2031 presidential and governorship elections.”
Oby Ndukwe: APC governors should definitely be threatened
Another strong political observer who knows Rivers politics inside out, having worked closely with or under most principal actors is Oby Ndukwe, a journalist, publisher, analyst, and multi-tasking expert.
In her considered opinion, the Rainbow Coalition may not become the nucleus of the next powerful national ruling party. She thinks the APC is very strong, and the ADC too, not minding that the ADC would have to prove in January that it is the biggest opposition party. She thinks this would be determined by the number of seats in the National Assembly, the states and the local the State Assemblies, and then of course their performance if they manage to win.
She thinks the Rainbow Coalition may even turn out to be the next biggest opposition movement against the ADC (if the ADC or NDC wins).
Ndukwe, also called the Media FBI because her uncanny insight into most camps in the Niger Delta and Abuja, said she is still watching the Rainbow Coalition to see if they’re going to have a structure where they begin to hold meetings outside the PDP thing or outside the APC.
“You also need to look at the strength that they need to bring to bear. I mean, Wike is strong. He’s a minister, and if the APC wins the next election, we also wait to see where the President will assign him. That also will determine the strength of the party, because let me tell you, a lot of funds is needed for you to finance a movement. That was why even Tinubu, with all his wealth, couldn’t finance that massive movement that later metamorphosed into APC. He still brought in Muhammadu Buhari because he knew that Buhari had the people even if he didn’t have the money. Gradually, they brought in some others from the nPDP, APGA, CPC, ANPP.”
APC’s fears:
Ndukwe, who began as publisher of the BEAM, agreed that the APC governors were justified to show fears about what Rainbow Coalition may turn out to be after 2027 into 2031. “Every politician, particularly those with ambitions, will definitely be threatened.
“Let me be frank with you, the internal issues or crises within the ruling party and then also from those who are not in APC, but are supporting President Tinubu, it’s all about 2031. That is the truth. Anyone who’s succeeds to hold the structure is likely going to be considered as a running mate to whoever will emerge from the north in 2031.
“That is if APC wins the election in 2027. So, their fears are germane. That is the truth of the matter. I’m not going to pretend, because I’m not working for anybody. I’m not on anybody’s pay roll, so I have to speak the truth the way it is. Let me tell you, the likes of Hope Uzodinma, the likes of Charles Soludo, the likes of Peter Mbah of Enugu State, the likes of Adams Oshiomhole, the likes of Dave Umahi, and the likes of Wike and Soludo (who are not in the APC), these guys all have their eyes on 2031.”
She said it’s not all about Tinubu’s re-election but about 2031. “They are commonly bound on that project, that is the truth. And everyone believes that, ‘If I can do well, if I can deliver, I could get the endorsement of the president, you know, for 2031.’ That is what you’re seeing.
“That is why Hope Uzodinma is going to forego eight months of his governorship to run for Senate and probably emerge as the Senate President. Even where he does not emerge as the Senate President, he still wants to be in the Senate because he believes probably he will have an advantage. I mean, something can happen and there will be shifting in the National Assembly that could favour him. So, he’s trying to position himself. But the truth is that, as a governor, you’re equally powerful.”
She went on: “Let me tell you, because his election is going to be off-cycle, his fears are that by the time his tenure ends, he will not have that power or that push to fight for the Presidency when the time would come.
So, he needs to be in the Senate for the next three years to four, so that it will give him a kind of comfortable cruise to the battle for 2031. Peter Mbah of Enugu State also has his own calculations. He has joined the APC.”
What Wike wants:
Could it be that Wike has convinced himself that he would hardly be allowed to get the slot of vice president in the APC (he is not even a member) as the PDP is a no-go area?
The media FBI vouched: “Beyond that, Wike’s intention is to position himself for the 2031 Vice President slot. We know these things. We’re in touch, we are field people, we are connected. I come from the South East and I live in the South-South, and I can tell you that I know politics in the two regions the way I know the back of my hand. I mean, I can tell you that that is the first ambition for Peter Mbah. That’s it, that’s why he’s there. Now, you look at Dave Umahi. He’s doing everything possible to please the President with all the coastal road, all the Abuja-Kano Road, all the infrastructure projects here and there and kind of taking the heat off the government and all that.
“Of course, he wants to be compensated with the ticket, running mate to whoever that will emerge as the presidential candidate from the North.”
She said Soludo of APGA has also made his own political calculations about the limitations of APGA and the fate of his predecessors (Obi, Obiano). Now, you can see that Obiano is neither here nor there. APGA has not been able to really favor those who served with it.
She said it’s all about a South-East vice president in 2031 and hopes of an eventual presidential candidate thereafter.
“So, that’s basically what they are looking at. I don’t also want to rule out Alex Otti, even though he has said he just wants to finish as governor and go. Then, look at Nyesom Wike. You think that Wike will just finish all that he’s done and then just retire like that, a young man? No, I don’t see that. He has not also shown that, so I believe strongly that he is also positioning.
“And that is where the fear comes in, because having a powerful structure as the Rainbow Coalition, though not a registered political party, but it could be tomorrow. It could be, because I don’t know whether PDP will survive from the ashes. So, it’s possible, and then I don’t also see Nigerians really believing in PDP anymore. So, Wike could just form this coalition and it will translate to something bigger.
Wike, a disruptive political thinker: Oby
Ndukwe went on: “Already, like I said, it’s spreading to very many states, even though there’s not been any evidence that he has those structures. It’s just that people are beginning to borrow the template and give him the credit. He, I mean, is the convener, and that’s why I said he’s also a disruptive political thinker—not a destructive, get me, a disruptive thinker. That is somebody who thinks outside the box; and that is Wike.”
So, she said, some of the governors in the APC are actually scared that these things may affect whatever plans they have. “But I think the bottom line is if President Tinubu wins in 2027, and then maybe endorses somebody as presidential candidate, and then somebody else as running mate. But these things are speculative, ‘All things being equal, ceteris paribus.’ So for me, what should be paramount to them is to ensure that the APC wins and remains in power before you begin to talk about what next. Because in my place, they say you have to struggle for space first before you start struggling for the mat that you’re going to put on the space to lie down.”
Conclusion: Rainbow Coalition, the next biggest thing:
Ndukwe rounded her thoughts up by positing that the Rainbow is the next biggest thing, if it survives in the 2027 elections. “So, I think Wike has started off well. Maybe he didn’t even know that it will grow this big, I’m sure. And so if we all have to wait to see what he wants to do, and then like I said, the fears of those APC governors are also germane because they also have almost the same ambition that Wike has. Everybody is eyeing 2031.
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