Victorians head to the polls in just over a month in what is likely to produce a major shake up to the state’s political landscape after 12 years of Labor with One Nation threatening to turn plenty of the country’s most progressive state orange.
Polling day is Saturday November 28, but campaigning is already ratcheting up with Premier Ben Carroll Premier Ben Carroll kicking off the party’s election campaign bus tour on Sunday with a $1.5bn package for hospital emergency departments.
Labor has never won a fourth consecutive term of government in Victoria. In early October, the bookmakers put Labor at $3.80 and the Coalition at $1.40.
Opinion polls roughly have Labor, One Nation and the Coalition receiving a quarter each of first preference votes, with the minor parties accounting for the remaining 25 per cent.
On a two-party preferred basis, the Coalition are firm favourites at 52 to 48 – but One Nation is the wildcard.
Here’s what you need to know.
State of play
Labor won 56 lower house seats at the last state election in 2022, and currently hold 54 after one resignation from the party and one expulsion.
Both of those men sit on the crossbench as independents. With those two losses, Labor goes into the election with a nine-seat majority.
The Liberals came away with 19 seats at the last election, and pinched the inner-city seat of Prahran from the Greens in a by-election early last year, which Labor did not contest.
The Nationals have maintained nine seats throughout the term.
The Liberals and Nationals need to gain 16 extra seats to form a majority government, but a resurgent One Nation may spoil the party and end up with the balance of power.
The Coalition could offer a formal agreement to One Nation if they cannot win their own majority, or negotiate every single piece of legislation in a hung parliament.
One Nation did not claim any lower house seats at the last election or throughout the term.
In the upper house is One Nation’s lone incumbent, Rikkie-Lee Tyrrell, who is one representative of the sprawling northern region, which stretches from the border of Melbourne’s northern suburbs up to NSW.
The Greens lost Prahran and Greens MP Dr Tim Read died last month, leaving the Greens with two MPs in the lower house.
Labor did not have a majority in the upper house this term, winning and maintaining 15 of the 40 available seats.
The Liberal Party lost one of their 12 upper house seats from the messy split with Moira Deeming, who defected to Family First.
The Nationals held two seats, the Greens had four, Legalise Cannabis had two, the Liberation Party had one representative, as did One Nation, Animal Justice, and the Shooters, Farmers and Fishers. The Democratic Labour Party lost one midterm with a resignation.
Labor ousted their leader Jacinta Allan in July, with her deputy and education minister Ben Carroll ascending to the Premiership.
The Victorian Liberal Party installed its first female leader in November 2025, with Jess Wilson taking the helm of the Coalition.
One Nation could well win the numbers to have the balance of power in parliament. Warren Pickering is leading One Nation’s 112 candidates.
The electorate
There are 88 lower house state seats, and 45 seats are needed for a majority.
In the upper house, Victoria is divided into eight regions with five politicians elected for each region.
Every Victorian is represented by one Legislative Assembly member and five Legislative Council members.
Since the 2022 state election, Victoria’s population has grown by about 450,000 people or 6.7 per cent.
About 75 to 80 per cent of that increase is from net overseas migration, and about 20 to 25 per cent is from births and deaths.
Tens of thousands of Victorians escaped interstate during the particularly restrictive Covid-19 lockdowns.
The One Nation factor in the Victorian state election
One Nation has put responsibility to organise campaigns onto the individual candidates, and which seats the party is targeting are a closely-held secret.
Leaks to Victorian state political reporters suggest the populist party is more interested in holding the balance of power in the lower house than forming a government.
The prevailing wisdom is that One Nation sees their best chance to pick up seats among outer suburban, mortgage-stressed families.
The Nationals will also have to fiercely defend their traditionally-Coalition regional seats, after One Nation won former federal opposition leader Sussan Ley’s NSW electorate earlier this year.
Pauline Hanson’s party also swooped on a long-held Labor Western Australian state seat in August – an electorate which overlaps with the federal opposition frontbencher Andrew Hastie’s seat.
Labor is currently clinging to 15 Victorian state seats on tight margins between 7 and 9 per cent, which puts the incumbent party on a volatile seesaw.
Winning a fourth term is a mighty rare occurrence in Australia, let alone when inflation is outpacing wage growth, and an eye-watering state debt such as Victoria’s.
How to cast your vote
Polling day is Saturday November 28, but Victorian residents over the age of 18 can start voting 10 days earlier.
Enrolments to vote for the state election close at 8pm, Tuesday November 3 – Melbourne Cup day which is a public holiday in Melbourne.
Legally you have to enrol if you’re an Australian citizen, over 18, and have lived in Victoria for longer than one month.
Early voting is open to everyone, and voting opens 9am on Wednesday, November 18, and runs seven days a week until Friday, November 27 – except the Sunday before the election, November 22. Early voting locations have not been listed yet.
Everyone can apply to cast a postal vote, and applications to do so open November 4, after all the candidates are confirmed, when the Electoral Commission will post out ballot packs. Postal vote applications close three days before the election at 6pm November 25.
Blind or vision impaired voters need to apply for a braille ballot paper by November 2, but anyone who has previously received the specialist voting paper does not need to apply again.
People with movement and vision issues can also vote by phone from November 18.
Quieter, more spaced out voting centres with dimmer lights will also open in each district as a once off on November 17, for anyone with neurodivergent sensitivities.
Mobile voting teams will also be getting around to homelessness support agencies, nursing homes and community centres throughout the early voting period.
If a Victorian does not vote, and cannot explain why, they will be fined $105.