FOREIGN policy is rarely the deciding factor in United States midterm elections, when economic considerations usually drive voters' choices.
But this time, with Donald Trump's war against Iran and his sweeping tariff campaign pushing up costs for Americans, a president's approach to world affairs has itself become a pocketbook issue.
As the Nov 3 elections approach, there are growing signs that voters are drawing that connection directly, creating a major liability for Trump and his fellow Republicans and imperilling their control of Congress.
Those include a Reuters/Ipsos poll earlier this month showing some 78 per cent of Americans blame Trump's policies for rising prices that are outpacing their earnings.
Not since 2006, when president George W. Bush's Republicans lost both legislative chambers while he was mired in the unpopular Iraq war, has a US leader's handling of international events appeared so central to shaping the midterms outcome.
The political backlash for Trump could be even bigger, with opinion polls showing that voters feel the economic pain from high petrol prices and rising grocery bills in a way that they didn't two decades ago.
"The bottom line is people are experiencing the impact of Trump's war and other policies," said Christopher Preble, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center think tank in Washington.
"Now voters have a chance to register their discontent with how he's dealing with all this."
With Trump's approval ratings touching historic lows, he has left little doubt, despite his public claims to the contrary, that he sees the straight line voters are drawing between his foreign policy and their cost of living.
That has prompted some controversial policy moves in the run-up to the elections.
Chief among them was Trump's lifting of sanctions on Russian diesel exports aimed at bringing down fuel prices, a step his critics, including some fellow Republicans, say reinforces the impression that he is siding with Moscow in its war in Ukraine.
He has also pressed Kyiv to halt strikes on Russian refineries as he tries to shift the blame for high US petrol prices despite experts saying the surge in energy costs is mainly the result of the war he launched alongside Israel against Iran nearly eight months ago.
At the same time, he has promised not to order any new attack on Iran before the midterms, though the US and Israel are widely reported to be preparing for a possible major escalation after the elections.
Some Republican candidates have distanced themselves from Trump on matters ranging from the conflict in the Middle East to the trade war with Canada and his pressure campaign against Ukraine.
Midterm elections historically have been seen as a referendum on the performance of the incumbent in the White House.
And in one election after another in recent decades, the conventional wisdom has been that economic concerns — "it's the economy, stupid", as the Clinton-era adage goes — dominate voters' choices.
Opinion polls for this year's midterms, including the Reuters/Ipsos survey, show that while voters rank foreign policy low on their list of priorities, it is clear that most Americans see some of Trump's signature moves on the world stage, such as the Iran war and tariffs, feeding into their higher costs.
Since returning to the White House last year, Trump has shaken up the rules-based global order while his relations with allies have steadily worsened and the limits of US power have been increasingly exposed, say analysts.
Against this backdrop, Democrats are widely projected to gain control of the House of Representatives in the midterms, with the Senate also seen as increasingly in play.
But even with a shift in the balance of power on Nov 3, lawmakers will have a hard time reining in Trump's capacity to pursue foreign policy as he sees fit.
"For many presidents who feel politically constrained (at home), foreign policy is the area where they are able to act with relative freedom," said Jon Alterman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank in Washington.
Analysts say Trump's handling of adversaries such as Iran, Russia, China and even Cuba or his approach to allies across the globe could go either way — or he could simply lose interest and double down on his string of construction projects, such as the White House ballroom.
The writer is from Reuters
© New Straits Times Press (M) Bhd