There are always small picture and big picture takeaways from these things. The big picture takeaway is simply that the universe has a way of balancing things out. It seemed like the Texans were on the wrong side of the bounce of the ball, blow of the whistle, and clutch performance in the first five games. Those things rarely ever go one direction for a whole season. So, the Texans finally benefitted from some positive fortune on all of those counts on Sunday.
The good news is that it means the Texans aren’t as bad as their 2-4 record suggests. In fact, if we were to follow Pythagorean theory, they should be 3-3 as they have scored one more point on the season than they have allowed. Of course, the bad news would be that they are still not as good as what we anticipated they would be coming into the season. Of course, we will get to that when we get to the great, good, and bad.
The Numbers
Total Yards: Texans 59/426, Jaguars 68/412
Rushing Yards: Texans 25/114, Jaguars 27/106
Passing Yards: Texans 34/312, Jaguars 41/306
Third Down: Texans 5/11, Jaguars 7/12
Fourth Down: Texans 0/0, Jaguars 0/1
Sacks: Texans 0, Jaguars 0
Turnovers: Texans 1, Jaguars 1
Penalties: Texans 6/40, Jaguars 6/66
Time of Possession: Texans 29:37, Jaguars 30:23
The numbers look like it was an even football game and that would be a good description of it. Both offenses moved the ball easily and both were equally effective in the red zone. Both had red zone turnovers that hurt. It was as even as even can get and when you win those games you have to come out feeling pretty good. This is especially true since this was technically a road game. The Texans have three home games in the division in the second half of the season. You have to feel pretty good about that.
The Great
We have to remember these moments when the opposite comes up. DeMeco Ryans overwhelming instinct is to turtle when he is up in a game. He trusts his defense. In most of his tenure that has been a good bet. It hasn’t been a good bet in this one and he recognized that for the most part. The hardest thing for a head coach and playcaller to do is to get a feel for what the moment calls for. They did turtle when up 24-14, but instinct is what it is. Otherwise, Ryans overcame his instincts and kept the pedal to the metal because that is what the game called for.
In particular, Ryans handled the end of the game very well with balancing the desire to give his kicker a chance to ice the game with guarding against disaster in case it didn’t work out. He also handled the clock at the end of the first half very well. That was a criticism in the Indianapolis game, so he showed a ton of growth in this one and we should mark it down because we would certainly mention it if the opposite were true.
The Good
This was the best rushing performance of the season. Make no mistake, this is still a passing football team and should be going forward. However, you don’t win football games unless you can gain yards on the ground when you need to. It wasn’t always pretty. For much of the first three quarters we were yelling at the screen whenever any rushing attempt came. However, they came alive in the fourth quarter and did just enough to keep the Jaguars honest.
Obviously, we will get to the majority of the passing game in our dedicated segment, but here is another hat tip to Jaylin Noel. He has gotten better in each of the past three weeks and is now a fully integrated part of the offense. Add in a clutch three catch performance from Nico Collins and Marvin Harrison Jr. and the shape of this passing attack is intact. The tight ends may be the story of this one though as they combined for more than 100 yards and two touchdowns. We will get to the ramifications on the wide receiver room down the line.
The Bad
It doesn’t matter who is calling plays. This is not the 2024-2025 defense. Heck, it isn’t even the 2023 defense. For whatever reason, they just aren’t good enough. Perhaps it was missing Jalen Pitre in the middle. Perhaps they whiffed on Reed Blankenship. Perhaps Kamari Lassiter and Derek Stingley Jr, just aren’t as good this year as they were a year ago. Maybe all of those things are true in addition to the injury troubles in the linebacking core.
Whatever the case may be, the time for simply thinking this group will snap out of it is over. They still have some players (Will Anderson cough) playing at a very high level, but it isn’t enough to simply throw out a vanilla defense and think you can outalent everyone. Either adjustments in the lineup or adjustments in the scheme will be needed to turn this around.
Focus on Stroud
The numbers will say that Stroud threw for 312 yards, three touchdowns, and a pick. The rating says it was a 116.3 as Stroud had his best game of the season. However, that doesn’t tell the whole story. For the first three quarters, the Jaguars knew the pass was coming because that is all the Texans had. He beat the blitz consistently and had the only one bad play. Otherwise, it was a perfect performance.
When the dust settles, he will have nine touchdowns and one interception on the season, will be near the league lead in passing yards, and a quarterback rating at almost 100. There is a stat called “expected completion percentage” that rates the difficulty of throws based on how open receivers are and how far down the field the attempts come. Stroud is second in the NFL in that department. Ultimately, the events of the past month indicate that the team is turning over the reigns to him to save their season. So far so good.
The revisionists will claim that Nick Caserio made a mistake by not paying him. It certainly looks that way now, but most of us were saying no before the season. We wanted to see it first. Well, we have seen it. This guy is earning his bag one game at a time. It will be exciting to see what happens with Harrison Jr. added to the receiving group. Plus, Tank Dell is almost ready to return. Let’s go.