Two fourth-quarter throws helped end Texas' perfect season last Saturday against Oklahoma. They also raised questions about the most famous QB prospect in college football.
First came Arch Manning's pick-6 with 10:07 remaining, giving Oklahoma the lead. Then, after Texas tied it, Manning's second pick in the final 30 seconds set up the Sooners' game-winning field goal in a 27-24 shocker.
Manning had some brilliant moments in the first three quarters of the Red River Rivalry, including two high-level touchdown throws, and he added another terrific TD pass between the two interceptions. But the two turnovers proved decisive in the loss.
It was a near-perfect encapsulation of Arch, the NFL prospect: brilliant mixed with maddening.
"Bad decision, bad mechanics, bad throw," an AFC scouting director said of the pick-6. "But he did some good things in that game. Really good. That's where you're kind of stuck as an evaluator. Like, how do I judge this?"
Blessed with NFL-caliber skills and QB-royalty bloodlines, Manning entered this season as the presumptive top QB prospect in what has been touted as a potentially great 2027 NFL Draft class at the position. But an uneven start to his 2026 season has NFL talent evaluators questioning what they're seeing — and whether Manning has made the kind of progress expected from a provisional No. 1 overall draft pick.
Two evaluators we spoke to were ambivalent about Manning as a prospect right now. Both see some of the same symptoms — late reads, not enough on-time throws, poor ball placement — and agree that the product has been slightly disappointing to this point, even if hope in Manning remains relatively high.
"He's athletic. He has the tools, but it's still coming together," one senior NFC evaluator said. "... Right now he's not ready, just as a complete prospect, of reading coverages, making good decisions and delivering accurate balls on a consistent basis. It's just not there. ... It's coming. You see the glimpses. He's tough. He's competitive. He uses his legs."
The quarterback hierarchy for the 2027 draft is far from set in stone. But Manning's perceived grip on the top spot has significantly loosened, especially as, on balance, Oklahoma State's Drew Mestemaker, Ole Miss' Trinidad Chambliss and Miami's Darian Mensah have authored arguably more impressive tape this season and prospects such as Notre Dame's CJ Carr and Missouri's Austin Simmons have made big moves from the start of the season.
"I think we tend to rush [Manning's] development just because of his last name," the NFC evaluator said. "... I don't think it's there yet. There's a lot more polished guys that are farther along than he is."
Can Manning reestablish his draft standing with a strong finish like he had in 2025? Are his mistakes fixable? And could he even return to college next season? All those questions hang in the air as Manning and Texas enter a crucial stage of their season.
A breakthrough season stuck in neutral
Manning, the grandson of former Saints legend Archie Manning and the nephew of Peyton and Eli Manning, had greatness projected on him before he ever set foot in Texas. But after nearly four years of college, starting for the past two seasons, his picture remains incomplete.
This was supposed to be Manning's breakthrough season. The surge began in the second half of the 2025 season, when he played some of the best ball of his college career. In Texas' final six games, Manning threw for 1,714 yards, 14 TDs and two interceptions, ran for 206 yards and five more scores and even caught a TD pass.
Texas added wideout Cam Coleman, offensive tackle Melvin Siani and running backs Raleek Brown and Hollywood Smothers, and retained a host of blue-chip talent, including future first-rounders such as OT Trevor Goosby and WR Ryan Wingo. Even in the rough-and-tumble SEC, with Texas facing arguably the nation's toughest schedule, greatness was the expectation.
That hasn't quite happened yet. Manning and Texas have yet to reach their peaks, even with a shocking 20-point comeback over then-No. 1 Ohio State in Week 2. In that game, Manning pulled off the stunner with three TD drives in the fourth quarter. Even that outing came with its warts.
"I didn't think he was that good [against OSU]," the AFC director said. "He helped them win for sure, but he had plays to make that he just flat-out missed. They were very lucky to win that one."
Three up-and-down games later, including the fourth-quarter mistakes against Oklahoma, Manning feels like he's in the same place he was before the hot finish last season. The high-end throws are highly enticing. The critical errors are a serious deterrent. Manning remains a complicated prospect.
'Flawed' doesn't spell doom in the draft
Then again, several flawed prospects have ended up being drafted very high in recent years. Blake Bortles (2014, No. 3), Josh Allen (2018, No. 7), Daniel Jones (2019, No. 6) and Zach Wilson (2021, No. 2) are examples of prospects who, regardless of how their NFL careers have turned out, landed in the top 10 while facing questions about accuracy, mechanics and decision-making.
In a traits-over-production league, there are still enough positive elements to Manning's game that could keep him close to the top of the draft. There is also the desperation factor.
"Every year there's more quarterback-needy teams than there are early [QB prospects]," the NFC evaluator said. "That's where you get the fourth guy [in Round 1], you know? Where he's really the sixth or seventh guy, but he's the fourth guy for this year. ...
"We sometimes grasp for salvation at that position."
Neither evaluator was willing to reveal exactly where they'd slot Manning in this class given how relatively early it is in the draft process.
"You don't always have the answers," the senior NFC talent evaluator said. "Middle of October, you're finding out what it is and what are the questions that need to be asked."
An echo of his play in the back half of 2025 could vault Manning back up toward the top of the class. But what if his season continues on the current trajectory or slides even further down?
"I can see the kid coming back," the NFC evaluator said. "You know, you're talking about wise counsel [in the Manning family]. I think he's going to make a good decision regardless. … It'll be interesting."
An unlikely comp for Arch
Because of his pedigree and impressive physical qualities, most Manning comps start with big names. Yet the scouting director found a more apples-to-apples comparison farther down the food chain.
Josh Allen?
"No."
Trevor Lawrence?
"Trevor was more polished," the AFC director said.
Drake Maye?
"Closer, but not exactly who I thought."
Who then?
"I see Daniel Jones. Daniel Jones is a pretty good quarterback, now. Arch is, too. But style-wise, and just the questions that come into my head when I watch him, it's like the Daniel Jones experience all over again: big, talented, athletic kid … decision-making questionable, [inconsistent] ball placement. That's what I've seen so far."
Seeing the field
Both evaluators agree that getting to the root of Manning's unsteadiness is the key to unlocking him as a prospect.
"It's not only tape; it's going through and getting an understanding of the whys behind it," the NFC evaluator said. "... That's part of the deep dive."
The biggest word that comes up with Manning? Consistency.
"More tools-traits prospect than complete player, to me, right now," the AFC director said. "He's at, what, 20 or so starts? But it's been four years in the same system. … You'd like to see more development by this stage."
The director has attended one of Manning's games in person this season and seen most of the tape from his five games. Even while noting that Texas' issues are far from all being on Manning, there have still been too many issues cropping up on his tape — even on successful plays.
"It just looks like he's not seeing the field that great," the AFC director added. "Extra hitches when they're not needed. Getting hung up on [his first reads]. Turning down open throws. Late on some stuff, even completions. Ball placement, not always great. Sacks that shouldn't be sacks. … He's leaving some meat on that bone, and I'd like to see it picked cleaner."
The other issue seems to be game feel: knowing when to press and when to be smart. That was on display in the Oklahoma loss, but it's also shown up in other games.
"It's him risk-taking when you want the checkdown, and it's a checkdown when you want him taking chances," the director said. "It's backward to me. I'd like to know what he's thinking on some of these throws, or what he's been taught. Because some of it doesn't make sense."
Manning has seven games left in the regular season, with his draft stock and Texas' season hanging in the balance. The Longhorns' next three games are in Austin, starting with a Florida team that flummoxed Manning in 2025, followed by tough home games against No. 9 Ole Miss and No. 16 Mississippi State. After a couple more difficult road games at No. 13 Missouri and No. 22 LSU, Texas finishes at home with current SEC bottom dwellers Arkansas and Texas A&M.
This stretch will determine whether Manning and Texas can fulfill their lofty expectations. Both evaluators agree that the potential is there for both quarterback and team to finish on high notes. The talent is there. The bulk of the season remains in front of them. But one way or another, for Manning to reach his ceiling, he's going to have to beat the clock — both in the pocket and in his head.
"We just gotta play more on time, man," the AFC director said.