Let's look at the mayoral candidates' property tax promises | Opinion

How much you pay in property taxes is usually the most important bread and butter issue in a municipal election, and how voters perceive a candidate’s ability to handle the taxes can be the difference between winning and losing.

Incumbent Mark Sutcliffe’s plan promises no more than a 2.5 per cent tax increase in each of 2027 and 2028, but he’s silent on what he’ll do in the last two years of his term. If history is any guide, property taxes will likely to go up much higher in 2029 and 2030. Remember that in the first two years of his first term, Sutcliffe increased taxes 2.5 per cent in 2023 and 2024. In 2025, they went up 3.9 per cent and this year, 3.75 per cent. Not telling us what will happen in 2029 and 2030 means we’ll be hit harder in those years.

Jeff Leiper has not committed to a specific number, hinting instead that there might be a need for a “reasonable, affordable and predictable” tax increase to pay for much-needed services. He has also proposed a one per cent levy to pay for the city’s infrastructure deficit, which now stands at $1.2 billion over the next decade. The infrastructure levy is a good idea, and if we are really serious about fixing our crumbling roads, water and sewers, aging buildings and recreational facilities, we should embrace it. Leiper’s property tax plan, however, falls woefully short. If you are running for mayor, you tell residents in plain language what you will do about property taxes. If you fudge the issue, you open yourself to accusations that you have a secret agenda to hike taxes. Or just don’t now what you are doing. Many voters will doubt you.

Newbie Alex Lawson has shown disdain for the established order of things, charting his own unconventional, sometimes radical course. His tax plan reflects this personality. Lawson is promising to freeze taxes in the first year, then a one per cent increase in 2028, and two per cent in each of 2029 and 2030. Lawson wants to outflank Mark Sutcliffe on taxes, and what is pledging is bold, populist, and shall we say, reckless. It’s too good to be true.

Remember that this year, property taxes brought in $2.3 billion, about 44 per cent of the city’s $5.2 billion operating budget. With zero tax increase, Lawson will automatically create a $2 billion hole in the 2027 budget. And with rising inflation and the uncertain impact of Trump tariffs, a one per cent increase in 2028 and two per cent in the following two years will simply compound the problem. Lawson says he will pay for it by cutting waste in the city without touching services. But even if he can find waste to cut it won’t be nearly enough to make up a $2 billion revenue loss. We all love to pay lower taxes, or no taxes at all, and Lawson’s plan has a good ring to it. Some will love it. But what he is proposing is a fool’s paradise. Remember Larry O’Brien? A zero per cent tax increase does not have a good history in Ottawa.

Neil Saravanamuttoo says he supports lower property taxes, but his plan is a series of talking points, including a “comprehensive” review of city finances before deciding what to do about taxes. It won’t sell. You can’t run for mayor and expect people to vote for you without knowing your tax policies. On this, he is no different than Leiper.

Imposing property taxes is a balancing act between what city residents can afford and how much money is needed to run municipal services that people rely on in their everyday lives. So, which of the mayoral candidates has got the balance right, and who has missed the boat?

Now is the time for you as a voter to do some homework. The tax plans are out there. Peruse and decide.

Mohammed Adam is an Ottawa journalist and commentator. Reach him at nylamiles48@gmail.com

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