BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Wednesday, 21 October, 1:46 p.m. ET · Source: Instituto Veritá poll, TSE registration BR-06396/2026
Key Facts
- What happened The Veritá polling institute published a new runoff survey on Wednesday 21 October, and it shows a very close race.
- The numbers Flávio Bolsonaro has 50.7% and Lula 49.3% of valid votes, with a 1-point margin of error.
- The change Veritá’s previous survey, published on Saturday 17 October, had Flávio at 51.1% and Lula at 48.9%.
- Fieldwork 15,554 people were interviewed from 15 to 19 October.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 78.6% chance of winning the 25 October runoff (21 October, 1:42 p.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 78% and Kalshi at 79% (Lula: 22% and 21%), as of 21 October, 1:40 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
A new poll from the Instituto Veritá puts Flávio Bolsonaro, senator for Rio de Janeiro, at 50.7% and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s president, at 49.3% of valid votes. Veritá published the survey on Wednesday 21 October, four days before the Brazil election 2026 runoff.
Brazil Election Data Room
Runoff poll average: Flávio Bolsonaro 51.1%, Lula 48.9%
33 national polls from 19 pollsters since 4 October, updated hourly. Every poll, free to download.
The runoff on Sunday 25 October decides who runs Latin America’s largest economy, which matters for Brazilian stocks, the real and trade with Washington. This is one more entry in our tracker of Brazil election polls, which shows a close race.
What the New Veritá Poll Found
Veritá interviewed 15,554 people from 15 to 19 October, with a margin of error of 1 percentage point at 95% confidence, CNN Brasil reported. The survey is registered with the electoral court (TSE) as BR-06396/2026, and the institute paid for it with its own resources, according to NC News.
Flávio Bolsonaro has 50.7% of valid votes and Lula has 49.3%, according to Midiamax. Valid votes leave out blank and spoiled ballots, which is how the TSE reports results.
How the Race Moved Since Saturday
Veritá’s previous survey, published on Saturday 17 October, had Flávio at 51.1% and Lula at 48.9% of valid votes, CNN Brasil reported. Flávio lost 0.4 points and Lula gained 0.4, so the lead shrank from 2.2 points to 1.4.
A 0.4-point move is within the 1-point margin of error. It is a direction worth watching, not proof that voters changed their minds.
Why a Narrow Lead Is Not a Forecast
A margin of error of 1 point applies to each candidate’s number. A gap of 1.4 points is therefore small enough that the poll cannot say with confidence who is ahead.
Another institute, Futura, also published a runoff poll on Wednesday that has Flávio at 51.1% and Lula at 48.9%, as we reported. Different institutes use different methods, so their results are not directly comparable.
What It Means for US Readers
If you hold Brazilian stocks, bonds or US-listed shares of Brazilian companies, a race this close can bring price swings until the result is known. Our Brazil election polls page lists every survey so you can compare the institutes.
The winner will set Brazil’s course on trade and diplomacy with Washington for the next four years. With the gap this narrow, neither candidate is a certain winner.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, traders give Flávio Bolsonaro a 78.6% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 21.5% (21 October, 1:42 p.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has drawn about US$191 million in total bets, and prices from Kalshi, which is regulated in the US by the CFTC, are on our Brazil election odds page.
Prices are bets, not polls, and they can move within minutes of new surveys. Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely.
We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 77.9% · Lula 21.5% (US$191 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 79% · Lula 21%
As of 21 October, 1:40 pm ET (18:40 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
The outlets we checked did not publish raw totals that include blank, null and undecided voters, so we cannot say how many are still undecided. Nor does the poll show how many people will turn out on 25 October.
Official results come only from the TSE. Brazilians will have the final word on Sunday 25 October.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who leads Brazil’s latest runoff poll from Veritá?
Flávio Bolsonaro leads with 50.7% to 49.3% of valid votes. The 1.4-point gap is small against a 1-point margin of error on each number.
When is Brazil’s runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October, four days after this poll was published. The winner will become president of Latin America’s largest country.
What is the margin of error?
It is 1 percentage point up or down at 95% confidence, according to CNN Brasil. Veritá interviewed 15,554 people from 15 to 19 October.
How did the poll change from Veritá’s previous survey?
On Saturday 17 October, Veritá had Flávio at 51.1% and Lula at 48.9% of valid votes. Flávio lost 0.4 points and Lula gained 0.4.
What are valid votes?
Valid votes leave out blank and spoiled ballots, matching the way Brazil’s electoral court reports results. Pollsters publish this figure to compare with the official count.
Sources: CNN Brasil, 21 October 2026; Midiamax, 21 October 2026; NC News, 21 October 2026; CNN Brasil, 17 October 2026; Exame, 21 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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