The Texas Longhorns have struggled in so many aspects of the game recently. Despite its star power, Texas hasn't looked comfortable in any of its games this season. Now, with the No. 7 Ole Miss Rebels coming to Austin, the Longhorns face another major test as they try to get their season back on track.
Texas has lost consecutive games to Oklahoma and Florida, falling from the top spot in the national rankings to No. 19. The offensive struggles have become increasingly difficult to ignore, particularly on third down. The Longhorns have converted only eight of their last 36 third-down attempts, a 22.2% success rate, leaving plenty of opportunities for opposing defenses to get off the field.
That trend could become a major advantage for Ole Miss on Saturday. The Rebels have the defensive personnel to pressure Texas quarterback Arch Manning, force difficult passing situations and take advantage of an offense that has struggled to find consistency.
Manning, or Lacey's Job Gets More Complicated
The quarterback situation in Austin has added another layer to Texas' preparation this week. Following Manning's struggles in the 27-24 loss to Florida, reports indicated that backup quarterback KJ Lacey would get more first-team reps in practice.
Head coach Steve Sarkisian has maintained that Manning remains the starter, but the increased attention surrounding Lacey adds pressure to a quarterback who needs to perform well against Ole Miss.
Manning has thrown for 1,295 yards, 11 touchdowns and five interceptions through six games. He completed 14 of 20 passes for 173 yards and a touchdown against Florida, but he also lost a late fourth-quarter fumble. He was sacked five times in the loss, further highlighting Texas's struggles to protect its quarterback.
The Longhorns have also struggled to hold the ball. Against Florida, Texas held the ball for just 21 minutes and 49 seconds, while the Gators controlled possession for 38 minutes and 11 seconds. Texas converted only two of 10 third-down opportunities, leaving its offense unable to sustain the drives needed to keep pace.
Ole Miss does not need to force Manning into mistakes on every possession. Instead, the Rebels can make his job more difficult by winning first down, limiting Texas' rushing production and forcing the Longhorns into obvious passing situations.
Ole Miss Has the Defensive Personnel to Capitalize
Will Echoles, Suntarine Perkins and Luke Ferrelli will all have opportunities to play major roles in the defensive game plan.
Echoles gives Ole Miss an interior presence capable of disrupting the pocket and making life difficult for Texas' offensive line. Through six games, he has recorded 18 tackles and 1.5 sacks. His ability to collapse the pocket from the inside could prevent Manning from stepping up comfortably and give the Rebels more opportunities to finish plays.
Perkins brings a different dimension to the defense. The linebacker has recorded 20 tackles and 1.5 sacks this season, and his athleticism gives Ole Miss the flexibility to attack Manning from different angles. Whether rushing off the edge, blitzing through a gap or dropping into coverage, Perkins can make it harder for Texas to identify where the pressure is coming from.
Ferrelli has emerged as another important piece of the defense. The junior leads Ole Miss with 39 tackles through six games, adding 2.5 tackles for loss and two sacks. His production against Missouri was particularly encouraging, as he recorded five tackles, including 1.5 tackles for loss and a sack, in the Rebels' 31-3 victory.
Together, the three defenders offer Ole Miss several ways to attack Texas' offensive weaknesses. Echoles can disrupt the pocket from the interior, Perkins can create pressure from the edge and Ferrelli can help close running lanes and clean up plays before they develop into first downs.
The challenge will be executing those responsibilities without giving Manning easy opportunities to exploit open space. Texas still has the talent to punish missed assignments, and Ole Miss must remain disciplined while applying pressure.
Third Down Could Decide the Matchup
Texas' recent third-down struggles give Ole Miss the clearest statistical reason to feel confident heading into Saturday.
The Longhorns converted just 3 of 14 third-down attempts against Oklahoma and two of 10 against Florida. Across those two losses, Texas converted five of 24 opportunities, a 20.8% success rate.
The Rebels, meanwhile, have converted 34 of 72 third-down opportunities offensively through six games, a 47.2% rate. That difference could create a significant advantage if Ole Miss can keep drives while forcing Texas off the field.
Ole Miss' defense also held Missouri to six conversions on 17 third-down attempts in its most recent game. The Tigers managed just 39 rushing yards in the 31-3 loss, demonstrating how effective the Rebels can be when they control the line of scrimmage and prevent an opposing offense from establishing its preferred approach.
Ole Miss's key will be creating the same conditions against Texas. If the Rebels limit early-down gains, Echoles and Perkins can attack a passing game that has struggled under pressure, while Ferrelli and the rest of the linebacker group can help prevent Manning from escaping the pocket or extending plays.
Texas has enough offensive talent to reverse its recent trend, and Manning's ability to respond will be one of the game's biggest storylines. But the numbers are clear: The Longhorns have struggled to sustain drives against their toughest competition, and Ole Miss has the personnel to make that problem even more difficult to solve.
If the Rebels can win on early downs, generate pressure and finish third-down stops, they can control possession and put Texas in an uncomfortable position. In a matchup between two teams with significant postseason ambitions, that could be the difference between another frustrating afternoon for the Longhorns and a statement road victory for Ole Miss.
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