BRAZIL · ELECTION
Key Facts
- —The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest economy, votes in a presidential runoff on Sunday 25 October between President Lula and the conservative senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
- —Why it matters The finance minister steers the budget, taxes and public debt, and shapes how a new government treats state companies such as Petrobras.
- —Why now A week before the vote, Jair Bolsonaro is said to prefer Adolfo Sachsida for the post, while the campaign says it will not sell Petrobras.
- —What happened Six unnamed people are said to name Sachsida as the former president’s favourite, and on 18 October a columnist called him almost certain to join a Flávio cabinet.
- —The numbers Sachsida has handed over about 200 proposals, and the campaign speaks of a fiscal adjustment of 1.5% of GDP, about R$200 billion (about US$39 billion).
- —What it means for you Holders of Petrobras shares and Brazilian bonds should watch this appointment, because the runoff will set the budget path and the policy on state companies.
- —Still open Flávio has not named anyone, market-friendly rivals are also tipped, and the campaign plan to resume privatisations names no companies.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 78.7% chance of winning the presidency and Lula 21.5% (Monday 19 October, 12:37 a.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 79% and Kalshi at 79% (Lula: 22% and 21%), as of 19 October, 1:00 am ET; prices are bets, not polls.
- —Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
Adolfo Sachsida, the economist who helps coordinate the economic plan of Flávio Bolsonaro, is reportedly the favourite of former president Jair Bolsonaro to run Brazil’s Finance Ministry if his son wins the Brazil election 2026 runoff. For US investors the question is how a possible Flávio government would treat Petrobras, whose shares trade in New York, and the budget, with the Brazil runoff date set for Sunday 25 October.
O Globo columnist Lauro Jardim wrote on Sunday 18 October that Sachsida has already given Flávio a package of 200 proposals, after Folha de S.Paulo, citing six unnamed people, reported in its Friday 16 October edition that Jair Bolsonaro prefers him for the ministry known as the Fazenda. Our pages on Brazil election polls and Brazil election odds follow a race in which Flávio led the first round on 4 October with 47.03% of valid votes against 45.16% for President Lula.
Neither Sachsida nor the campaign commented to Folha, and Flávio has not named a finance minister. If he wins, the choice is his, and Jair Bolsonaro’s preference is only one of several pressures on it.
Why Sachsida Is Tipped for the Job
Sachsida is an economist and lawyer born in 1972 in Londrina, with a doctorate from the University of Brasília and a civil-service career at the Ipea research institute since 1997. Under Paulo Guedes, the market-friendly economy minister of Jair Bolsonaro, he led the economic policy secretariat from January 2019 to February 2022.
He then served as mines and energy minister from May to December 2022, the last months of the Bolsonaro government. Folha says his profile fits what the former president wants, a technician who is neither a banker’s employee nor tied to anyone who bought court-ordered debt claims.
Sachsida is also one of Jair Bolsonaro’s lawyers, which gives him a direct line to a man under house arrest after a conviction to more than 27 years for attempting a coup. Flávio visited his father on Tuesday 13 October, the first visit since July, and again on Thursday 15 October.
Lauro Jardim, a columnist at O Globo, wrote on Sunday 18 October that Sachsida is almost certain to return to the Esplanada if Flávio wins, perhaps as finance minister. He added that Sachsida has already handed Flávio a package of 200 proposals, prepared with about 100 volunteers, most of which could be published in the Official Gazette the day after inauguration.
Gazeta do Povo reported on 18 October that these proposals belong to a project called Projeto Brasil, launched in July before Sachsida joined the campaign. He says it is separate from the official government plan that Flávio filed with the electoral court.
Sachsida and the Petrobras Question
On Thursday 8 October Sachsida published a video saying that a Flávio government would not privatise Banco do Brasil, Caixa Econômica Federal or Petrobras. He said no privatisations of companies would take place and that none of the three would be touched, according to O Globo.
Veja reports that Flávio himself denied any plan to sell Petrobras the next day and blamed the rumours on an attempt to hurt his candidacy. The same report notes that the campaign programme promises to resume the national privatisation programme but names no companies.
Daniella Marques, a former Caixa president who co-coordinates the economic plan, said in September that more than 20 state companies dependent on the Treasury could be reviewed, naming Banco do Brasil as one. She excluded Caixa from that list, according to Veja.
The doubt has a history, because Sachsida told Estão in an interview published on 13 July 2023 that the Bolsonaro government would have privatised Petrobras if it had won a second term. He said a bill to sell 30 years of receivables of the state company Pré-Sal Petróleo (PPSA), worth about R$390 billion (about US$77 billion), had already gone to Congress.
An opinion column in Brasil 247 on 18 October argues that his denial should not be believed and calls the Petrobras sale a ready plan. The column is the author’s opinion, and the sources we opened show the denial and the 2023 remark, but no document that proves a current plan to sell Petrobras.
Jair Bolsonaro’s government did sell the fuel distributor BR Distribuidora and three Petrobras refineries, according to O Globo. Petrobras undid the 2022 sale of a fourth, Lubnor, in November 2023 under President Lula.
The Rival Names for the Finance Ministry
Veja lists three other names: Roberto Campos Neto, a former central bank president now at Nubank, backed by São Paulo governor Tarcísio de Freitas; Marcelo Kayath, a partner at the asset manager QMS Capital, backed by Eduardo Bolsonaro; and Alexandre Bettamio, a Bank of America executive linked to Daniella Marques. Folha reported on 11 October, in a report relayed by Revista Oeste, that Campos Neto tells contacts he is focused on Nubank’s international expansion, and he did not comment.
Folha says Sachsida is not at the top of the financial market’s preference list, though he is not rejected. He told contacts that pressure for a market figure at the Finance Ministry lowers his chances, and his name has also been floated for infrastructure, planning and the Petrobras presidency.
What Sachsida Says He Would Do
Sachsida says the fiscal adjustment would target “excesses” in government without new taxes, through fewer ministries and curbs on top civil-service pay. In the 8 October video he called it senseless for a civil servant to earn R$200,000 a month (about US$3,900), and promised to preserve and strengthen Bolsa Família and the BPC benefit for the elderly and disabled.
He favours a constitutional spending rule tied to the ratio of public debt to GDP, and says public accounts could be put in order within about 18 months. The campaign has spoken of an adjustment of 1.5% of GDP, about R$200 billion (about US$39 billion), without explaining how it would be reached, according to O Globo.
Dollar figures for real amounts use the central bank’s PTAX selling rate of R$5.0826 per US dollar on Friday 16 October 2026. Every conversion uses that single rate, including the 2023 figure.
What Prediction Markets Say
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 78.6% · Lula 21.5% (US$188 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 79% · Lula 21%
As of 19 October, 1:00 am ET (06:00 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
On Polymarket, the Brazil presidential election market gave Flávio Bolsonaro a 78.7% chance and Lula 21.5% at 12:37 a.m. ET on Monday 19 October. The whole election market has traded about US$187.8 million, and the Flávio contract alone about US$22.8 million.
These are bets, not polls, and they price the presidency rather than the cabinet. We found no market on who will be Brazil’s next finance minister.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for You
Investors in Petrobras, Banco do Brasil or Brazilian government bonds should treat the finance minister as a signal of how the next government would balance the budget and manage state companies. Our report on the Flávio Bolsonaro economic team and our profile Who Is Flávio Bolsonaro, Lula’s Runoff Rival? give the background.
Travellers and expats feel little direct effect before the vote, because any cabinet would take office only after the inauguration in January. Daily coverage on the Brazil news hub follows the runoff and the economy.
What Is Not Known
The Folha report rests on six unnamed people, and neither Sachsida nor the campaign has confirmed it to the newspaper. It is not known whether Flávio would follow his father’s preference or pick a figure closer to the financial market.
The sources do not show which state companies a Flávio government might sell, if any, or how the campaign would reach the adjustment of about R$200 billion (about US$39 billion). The runoff on 25 October will decide whether any of this matters.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is Adolfo Sachsida?
He is a Brazilian economist and lawyer who served as secretary of economic policy from January 2019 to February 2022 and as mines and energy minister from May to December 2022. He now coordinates economic policy for the Flávio Bolsonaro campaign.
Has Flávio Bolsonaro chosen a finance minister?
No, he has not announced anyone. Folha de S.Paulo says Jair Bolsonaro prefers Sachsida, but the final choice rests with Flávio if he wins.
Will a Flávio Bolsonaro government sell Petrobras?
Sachsida said on 8 October that Petrobras, Banco do Brasil and Caixa would not be privatised, and Flávio denied such plans the next day. The campaign programme nonetheless promises to resume the national privatisation programme without naming companies.
Who else is tipped for the finance ministry?
Veja names former central bank president Roberto Campos Neto, asset manager Marcelo Kayath and Bank of America executive Alexandre Bettamio. Daniella Marques, a former Caixa president, also helps shape the economic plan.
When is the Brazil runoff?
The runoff takes place on Sunday 25 October 2026 between President Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro. Flávio led the first round on 4 October with 47.03% of valid votes against 45.16% for Lula.
Sources: Folha de S.Paulo, 16 October 2026; Veja, 16 October 2026; O Globo, Lauro Jardim, 18 October 2026; O Globo, 8 October 2026; Veja, 9 October 2026; Gazeta do Povo, 18 October 2026; Estadão, 13 July 2023; Revista Oeste, 11 October 2026; Banco Central do Brasil, PTAX rate of 16 October 2026.
Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error
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