Baylor Football Bowl Projections Take Hit After Loss to TCU

Baylor's postseason outlook took a hit following Saturday's 17-6 loss to TCU, with one national outlet leaving the Bears out of its latest bowl projections.

The defeat snapped Baylor's four-game winning streak and dropped the Bears to 4-2 overall and 2-1 in Big 12 play.

After scoring 55 points against Arizona State before its bye week, Baylor managed just 310 total yards, including 54 on the ground, against TCU. The Bears failed to reach the end zone despite holding the Horned Frogs to 33 rushing yards.

With six games remaining, Baylor needs two more victories to reach the six-win mark typically required for bowl eligibility.

Here's where national outlets project the Bears to play entering Week 8.

ESPN Bowl Projections

ESPN's Kyle Bonagura projects Baylor to face Missouri in the Liberty Bowl on Jan. 2 in Memphis, Tennessee.

Bonagura previously had the Bears facing Pittsburgh in the Pop-Tarts Bowl, but now predicts a matchup against an SEC opponent.

ESPN's Mark Schlabach also projects Baylor to face Missouri, although he has the matchup taking place in the Texas Bowl on Dec. 31 in Houston. Schlabach previously predicted a Liberty Bowl meeting with Florida.

With Missouri appearing in both projections, the Tigers are Baylor's most frequently predicted opponent this week. A matchup would give the Bears an opportunity to test themselves against an SEC program after navigating a challenging Big 12 schedule.

Athlon Sports Bowl Projection

Athlon Sports' Steven Lassan no longer projects Baylor to reach a bowl game following Week 7.

Lassan previously predicted the Bears would face Air Force in the Armed Forces Bowl on Dec. 23 in Fort Worth, Texas.

His latest projections instead have Memphis facing Air Force, with Baylor listed among the teams narrowly missing the postseason field.

The omission is particularly notable considering Baylor entered last week with a 4-1 record and appeared in all five projections. With the offense struggling against TCU and several difficult opponents remaining, the Bears have little room for additional setbacks.

College Football News Bowl Projection

College Football News projects Baylor to face Boise State in the Independence Bowl on Dec. 22 in Shreveport, Louisiana.

The outlet previously had Baylor facing Navy in the Armed Forces Bowl, but its latest prediction pairs the Bears with a Boise State program that has established itself as one of the Group of Five's most successful teams.

The two programs last met in the 2016 Cactus Bowl, when Baylor defeated Boise State 31-12 in Phoenix under interim head coach Jim Grobe.

Boise State has been a consistent postseason contender, including a College Football Playoff appearance following the 2024 season. A meeting with the Broncos would provide Baylor with a challenging opponent outside the Power Four conferences.

The Independence Bowl would also send the Bears outside Texas after consecutive projections placed them in Fort Worth.

On3 Bowl Projection

On3's Brett McMurphy projects Baylor to face South Carolina in the Liberty Bowl on Jan. 2 in Memphis, Tennessee.

McMurphy previously had the Bears facing Mississippi State in the Texas Bowl on Dec. 31 in Houston.

A matchup with South Carolina would give Baylor another opportunity to face SEC competition and serve as a measuring stick for a program looking to build momentum heading into 2027.

The Liberty Bowl is the only destination appearing in multiple projections, with McMurphy and ESPN's Bonagura both predicting Baylor will travel to Memphis, although they disagree on the opponent.

What's Next for Baylor?

Four of the five projections still have Baylor reaching the postseason, but the Bears face a critical stretch of their schedule.

Baylor travels to Kansas on Saturday before visiting UCF on Oct. 30 and hosting Iowa State on Nov. 7. Those games could prove particularly important before the Bears close the regular season against ranked BYU, Texas Tech and Houston.

The Bears remain within reach of a second consecutive bowl appearance, and winning two of their next three games would secure eligibility before a difficult closing stretch.