The end of the beginning: Alberta’s real referendum message for Carney

On Monday, Albertans voted in a provincewide referendum that could have important consequences for Canada’s future. But the question attracting the most attention may not be the one that matters most.

The tenth question asked Albertans whether they want to remain in Canada or take the next step toward separation. As of the time of writing, only a quarter of Alberta voters opted for another referendum. Three-quarters opted against another referendum and said they wanted to remain in Canada.

But results from the other nine questions may tell a more interesting story.  All but Question 10 garnered majority support. Ipsos polling for Global News also found that Canadians outside Alberta supported eight of the nine proposals by majority. Albertans may have rejected separation for now, but they also endorsed an agenda for changing Canada that has considerable support elsewhere in the country.

Prime Minister Mark Carney seems to understand the message he received. At a rally in Calgary on October 15, he urged Albertans to reject the other nine questions with the slogan “No to the Nine.” Carney wasn’t simply campaigning against separation. He was taking a position against proposals that could reshape our country.

The remaining nine questions cover two broad areas. The first five concern immigration and access to public services. They propose greater provincial control over immigration, lower immigration levels, employment preferences and restrictions on access to publicly funded services for temporary residents. They also address proof of citizenship for provincial voting.

The other four concern the federal system itself. They propose provincial control over appointments to superior courts, abolition of the Senate, the right to opt out of federal programs without losing funding and provincial laws taking precedence over federal laws in areas of provincial or shared jurisdiction.

Some proposals would require constitutional changes. Others could be addressed through existing legislation. None automatically becomes law even though Albertans voted for them. But majority support has given Premier Danielle Smith justification to pursue them.

Quebec’s recent election adds another layer. Voters there have just elected a sovereigntist Parti Québécois government. Alberta and Quebec have different objectives, but both could find common cause in demanding greater provincial autonomy. Ottawa could soon face demands from two provinces with very different motivations seeking fundamental changes to Confederation.

For the past year, Donald Trump’s trade war against Canada has dominated Canadian politics. The threat from Washington has encouraged Canadians to rally around the flag. But national unity in the face of an external threat hasn’t eliminated the disagreements within Canada.

One of the most persistent has been the conflict between Alberta and Ottawa. It intensified during the Trudeau years, particularly over energy and environmental policy. For many Albertans, the dispute became a question of whether Ottawa was treating their province fairly.

Carney has tried to change that relationship. His support for a new pipeline to tidewater represents a significant departure from the direction many Albertans associated with the previous Liberal government. But a pipeline remains a promise until it is built. Alberta’s demands for greater provincial autonomy extend well beyond energy.

A poll can show support for a proposal, but it doesn’t reflect support for the negotiations required to make it happen. Canadians may like abolishing the Senate without agreeing on what should replace it. They may favour greater provincial autonomy without wanting to reopen the Constitution.

But dismissing these results would miss the point. The public opinion exists, and it isn’t confined to Alberta. What’s missing is a political agenda capable of bringing these attitudes together. Monday’s referendum could be a step in that direction.
This creates a dilemma for Carney. Albertans rejected separation, so he can rightfully celebrate a victory for Canadian unity. But they endorsed eight of the other questions, which means he could face a disruptive provincial government with a renewed mandate to challenge Ottawa on issues that resonate across the country. And with an ally in Quebec’s sovereigntist government in Quebec.

Given our Prime Minister’s apparent fondness for seeing his current assignment in Churchillian terms, it seems appropriate to borrow a line from the man himself. Following the British victory at El Alamein in 1942, Churchill observed that it was not the beginning of the end, but perhaps the end of the beginning.

The Alberta referendum could mark a similar turning point in the debate over Canada’s future. Is it the beginning of the end of Alberta’s confrontation with Ottawa, or merely the end of the beginning of a much broader debate about how Canada should work?

That remains to be seen. But Canadians would make a serious mistake if we confuse this vote against separation with acceptance of the status quo. On the contrary. The message from Albertans is that their grievances are real, and there remain nine questions in search of a meaningful response.

Darrell Bricker is Chairman of Ipsos Canada