NEW YORK — Cornered ahead of the midterm elections by surging U.S. diesel prices stemming from the Middle East war, President Donald Trump has taken a political gamble by joining hands with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The arrangement is designed to stabilize fuel prices by halting Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy facilities, at least until the election, and by sharply easing sanctions on Russian diesel. The agreement with Putin also reflects diplomatic hopes that Russia can exert significant influence over Iran. The problem is that political controversy surrounding the deal is already spreading. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who can offer Trump nothing in his quest for lower oil prices, immediately pushed back strongly, as did European countries that face a security threat from Russia. In the U.S., Democrats and even some Republicans have criticized the decision, saying it "only did Putin a favor." Stabilizing oil prices through expanded Russian diesel supplies would be one thing, but even that has become hard to expect after the Iran-aligned Houthi rebels in Yemen struck Saudi Arabia. Trump, who had said he would not intervene in the Yemen situation, has begun weighing the possibility of military action. With the U.S. midterms and oil market instability now intricately entangled, uncertainty in international relations is deepening further.
Pressed for Lower Oil Prices Before the Election, Trump Joins Hands With Putin and Lifts Russian Diesel Sanctions Through April
Delivering remarks on the 9th at the White House in Washington, D.C., ahead of Columbus Day on the 12th, Trump said there would be "a major announcement on diesel." He stressed that "we stopped Iran from having a nuclear weapon," adding that the matter would be resolved soon "one way or another." Separately, the U.S. online outlet Axios reported on the 8th that Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Trump's eldest son-in-law, planned to meet Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine's presidential office, and European security officials in Miami on the 9th to propose a new framework for ending the Russia-Ukraine war. According to Axios, Witkoff and Kushner first briefed Trump on the plan on the 8th, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Deputy National Security Adviser Mike Needham present.
The "major announcement on diesel" and the "new framework for ending the war in Ukraine," which had appeared to be separate matters, were unveiled as a single policy. On the 9th, Trump said on his social media platform Truth Social that he had "just concluded a very successful discussion with President Putin," and that "Russia has agreed to immediately supply more than 300,000 tons of diesel fuel to the U.S. and world markets, an additional 500,000 tons next month, and 1 million tons shortly thereafter." He added that "Russia will then supply an additional 3 million tons of diesel fuel within a short period, taking into account the condition of its own diesel refining facilities," and emphasized that "this is a very significant announcement because lowering prices for our great farmers, ranchers and truckers is my top priority." The Russian diesel volumes Trump outlined totaled 4.8 million tons. Trump also said it "must be clearly understood that Iran will never have a nuclear weapon," arguing that global diesel prices would fall rapidly thanks to U.S. control of the Strait of Hormuz and Russian energy supplies.
The Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) announced the same day that it was issuing a temporary general license permitting Russian diesel to be supplied to global markets. According to documents released by the Treasury, import transactions involving Russian diesel — including sale, delivery, unloading and importation into the U.S. — are permitted until 12:01 a.m. on April 7 next year. The move temporarily suspends the ban on Russian energy imports that has been in place since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Trump extended a hand to Putin because he concluded that U.S. diesel prices are rising excessively with roughly three weeks left before the midterms. According to the American Automobile Association (AAA), the average U.S. diesel price on the 12th was $6.27 a gallon — down from $6.52 on the 22nd of last month, but still far above $3.67 a year earlier. According to Russia's TASS news agency on the 10th, Putin expressed agreement with some of the proposals presented by the U.S. after speaking with Trump by phone that day. TASS also reported that Witkoff and Kushner could visit the Russian capital of Moscow within two weeks.
The Financial Times reported on the 10th that at the Miami talks on the 9th, Witkoff and Kushner warned Ukraine that the U.S. would halt the sharing of key intelligence unless Kyiv stopped attacking Russian refineries. Ukraine's negotiating team canceled a meeting scheduled for the 10th after the two men abruptly conveyed news of the Trump-Putin agreement on Russian diesel supplies. The Ukrainians complained that Washington was pressuring only them while making no demand that Russia halt its own strikes. Zelenskyy strongly objected to the agreement and immediately directed strikes on Russian oil terminals.
The FT reported on the 11th that the U.S. had also warned Ukraine it would cut off the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL), the NATO-managed system for procuring U.S. weapons, unless Kyiv stopped attacking Russian refineries. Under PURL, Ukraine's allies bear the cost of buying American weapons that are then supplied to Ukraine. Trump announced abruptly on Truth Social that day that "Russia and Ukraine have agreed to a ceasefire halting attacks on each other's energy infrastructure."
Zelenskyy Ignored Six U.S. Requests to Halt Refinery Strikes; Trump Says Ukraine Should Get a New President
Axios reported on the 9th that Trump decided to strike the diesel supply deal with Putin after Zelenskyy ignored six requests to stop attacking Russian refineries. The view in Washington was that Putin banned diesel exports because Ukraine had concentrated its attacks on Russian refineries for months. Earlier, Russia carried out large-scale missile and drone attacks targeting Ukrainian power plants and grids on the 30th of last month and on the 7th of this month. After the strikes caused blackouts in the capital, Kyiv, and elsewhere, Ukraine used drones to attack Russian refineries and other facilities, dealing a blow to energy supplies.
Facing a crisis, Zelenskyy denounced the Trump-Putin agreement on X, formerly Twitter, on the 9th. "A gift to Putin will not bring peace and will not give the civilized world any benefit," he said, adding that "Russia will repay the diesel deal with more terror and acts of betrayal." He argued that "allowing Russia to sell petroleum products is the same as investing in prolonging a war that should be ended." In an Axios interview the same day, Zelenskyy called it "a deal that is neither fair nor honest," stressing that the possibility of trading diesel with Putin had never once been raised while Ukraine was discussing terms for ending the war with the U.S. delegation.
Trump pushed back at the White House on the 10th, telling reporters that "Zelenskyy could have ended this war many times but chose not to." He said, "We told President Zelenskyy, 'Do what you want about Russia, but just don't attack the refineries, which cause a global problem' — but he wanted to cause problems for our farmers and ranchers." Trump added that "in a war that should never have started, Ukraine has lost 30% of its territory and more than a million lives," and declared: "I want a new leader who can make a deal, and it's time for Ukraine to get a new president."
Elon Musk, chief executive of SpaceX, echoed that view on X on the 10th and 11th, saying Zelenskyy "has gone too far" and that "it's time for Ukraine to find a new leader." Ukraine's military relies on SpaceX's Starlink internet service for drone warfare communications.
In an ABC interview on the 11th, Zelenskyy countered that "when to vote and whom to elect is up to Ukrainians," adding, "I know that Putin wants to change the president of Ukraine." He said that "if President Trump wants to change something through an election, let him tell Putin to give us a complete 60-day ceasefire," and that "then we will organize elections and prepare for the choice of Ukrainians." Speaking to Axios about the energy ceasefire Trump had claimed, Zelenskyy said, "This is the first I'm hearing of it," and added that "if Russia agrees to an energy ceasefire, Ukraine will agree as well."
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha wrote on X on the 10th, addressing Trump's suggestion that Ukraine change leaders, that "President Zelenskyy has the support of the Ukrainian people, and the decision rests with the people." Kirill Dmitriev, Putin's special envoy for foreign investment and economic cooperation, wrote on X the same day that "President Trump has joined the many who believe Ukraine needs a leader focused on actual peace, not a President Zelenskyy who behaves like a warmonger."
Hopes for Russian Mediation in the Middle East; "Don't Make a Deal With the Devil," Say Even Republicans
The quiet dealmaking between the U.S. and Russia appears to extend beyond sanctions relief into involvement in Middle East affairs. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on the 10th that Putin had conveyed Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian's plan for ending the war to Trump by phone. Putin held two meetings with Pezeshkian on the 9th on the sidelines of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) summit and a Caspian Sea environmental summit in Turkmenistan. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei confirmed at a regular briefing on the 12th that Pezeshkian had again explained Iran's seven-point plan and the broader issues to Putin.
The Trump-Putin agreement also jolted U.S. politics, as it could become the eye of the storm in the midterm elections on Nov. 3. Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer of New York wrote on X on the 9th that "President Trump is making a deal with the devil to escape his own precarious political fate," charging that "this dirty deal will help Iran, which kills American troops in the Middle East, and help Putin, who is brutally invading our ally Ukraine."
Politicians from Trump's own party were equally uncomfortable with the deal, and their comments were tied directly to sentiment in their districts. According to The New York Times, former Rep. Mike Rogers, the Republican running for the U.S. Senate in Michigan, told reporters on the 9th that "there should not be a single inch of concession to Putin." Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan of Alaska, who is seeking reelection, issued a statement through a spokesperson the same day saying "the answer to high fuel prices lies in securing American energy dominance," and argued that Alaska should expand energy production instead of importing Russian supplies.
Six senators from both parties — Republicans Susan Collins of Maine, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Thom Tillis of North Carolina and John Curtis of Utah, and Democrats Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire and Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut — issued a joint statement on the 11th urging that the agreement be withdrawn, saying "the U.S. should not provide Putin a financial lifeline while Russia continues to kill Ukrainian civilians." Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania said he would introduce legislation to block purchases of Russian oil and pursue a procedure to force a floor vote without leadership approval.
The Wall Street Journal also sharply criticized the agreement on the 10th as an insult to the late former Sen. Lindsey Graham, who died suddenly in July. Graham, once among Trump's closest allies, was a hawk who had stressed maintaining pressure on Russia. The Journal said "Trump's strategic shift is hard to understand," noting that "the U.S. has pressed Europe, India and China not to buy Russian oil, and all of that diplomatic effort has gone to waste." Bessent moved to contain the criticism in a Fox News interview on the 10th, saying the deal is "good for the American people and will help bring down diesel prices."
Kaja Kallas, the European Union's high representative for foreign affairs and security policy, objected on X on the 10th, saying that "suspending sanctions on Russian diesel amounts to earning Russia the money to wage war." EU foreign ministers gathered in Luxembourg on the 12th to discuss imposing new sanctions on 1,600 individuals and companies suspected of supporting Russia. The British prime minister's office said on the 10th that Prime Minister Andy Burnham had made clear in a call with Zelenskyy that he would strengthen sanctions against Russia. A German government spokesperson said in a statement to AFP that "Germany's support for Ukraine's struggle to defend itself is unwavering."
Oil Prices Rise Instead on Houthi Attack on Saudi Arabia, Leaving the Political Gamble in Doubt
Trump's political gamble ultimately appears to hinge on how far international oil prices fall once Russian diesel reaches global markets. The bet seems to be that even voters who resent a U.S. partnership with Putin may change their minds if prices drop quickly. Trump wrote on Truth Social on the 12th that "the EU paid Russia $250 billion (about 334 trillion won) for energy, and the fake news media won't go near that story," adding: "It's always America first, and once again I made the right decision for the American people."
The problem is that even the effect on oil prices remains uncertain. On the 12th, Brent crude futures for December delivery closed at $106.65 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange in London, up 1.84% from the previous session. West Texas Intermediate futures for November delivery closed 2.06% higher at $93.74 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent hit its highest level since the 15th of last month and WTI since the 24th.
According to Reuters and other outlets, Peskov sidestepped a reporter's question that day about whether an energy ceasefire had been agreed, saying only that "we will inform you as soon as there is something to disclose on this matter." That leaves open the possibility that Trump's claim of an energy ceasefire proves hollow. Ukraine's state energy company Naftogaz said gas production facilities in the Kharkiv region were attacked by Russia overnight from the 11th to the 12th. Three civilians were also killed by Russian attacks in eastern Ukraine. Zelenskyy wrote on X that "Russian forces attacked six Ukrainian energy facilities on the 12th alone, injuring 33 people," adding that "it is becoming increasingly clear that Russia has no intention of accepting an energy ceasefire." Speaking the same day at a security forum in the Polish capital, Warsaw, he warned that "there have also been Russian attacks on ordinary gas stations," and that "if they want our strikes on refineries and oil export facilities to stop, Russia must stop its attacks first — otherwise we will respond."
The Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia are a heavier burden that offsets the effect of easing Russian sanctions. On the 10th, King Khalid International Airport in the Saudi capital, Riyadh, was hit by a Houthi attack that killed 14 people and wounded more than 300 — the worst casualty toll since the outbreak of the Iran war. The airport has been attacked three times since the 5th of this month, when Yemeni government forces backed by Saudi Arabia retook a strategic point near the Red Sea.
Houthi attacks killed one person and wounded more than 10 others in Saudi Arabia on the 11th as well. On the 12th, three explosions believed to be the sound of ballistic missile interceptions were heard in Riyadh, and Saudi authorities sent early-warning messages to residents. King Khalid International Airport is scheduled to remain closed until the 17th. Turki al-Malki, spokesperson for the Saudi Defense Ministry, said on X that forces "successfully intercepted and destroyed a ballistic missile launched by the Houthi militia toward Riyadh." Yahya Saree, the Houthi military spokesperson, said in a statement that "no airport in Saudi Arabia is safe, except for the Islamic holy sites of Mecca and Medina."
As oil prices draw attention as Trump's Achilles' heel in the midterms, moves aimed at exploiting that vulnerability appear to be intensifying in both Ukraine and the Middle East. That has prompted forecasts that Trump's all-out effort to steady oil prices until the election could veer beyond what can be predicted. Asked at the White House on the 10th whether the U.S. planned to join strikes against the Houthis, Trump said he would "look into it," adding that "I just learned about the recent attacks, so I'll make a decision quickly." The remarks suggested he could reverse course now that the situation has grown urgent, after rejecting Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's requests for military action three times last month.
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