Three reasons Virginia can beat SMU, three reasons it won't

Can Virginia capture an upset win for the first time this year?

1. The Mustangs are beatable, more so than in years past

From a distant view, No. 24 SMU looks like an ACC contender with a 4-1 record (2-1 ACC). However, this is a deeply flawed Mustangs team that was a handful of plays away from a 1-4 start to the season.

Against lowly Missouri State, SMU started the game down 0-10 at home, and only ended up winning 34-24. Against a vastly superior team from the same conference (Delaware), Virginia looked nearly unstoppable in a 42-3 win.

The Mustangs also barely scraped by Florida State in a game where SMU coughed up four turnovers, but the Seminoles offense tripped over itself time and time again. Then there was a game against Boston College in which the Mustangs fellow into a deficit to a medicore team at home (again), and only won by nine points.

SMU also lost by 10 at Louisville. This Mustangs team is not invincible by any sense of the word, and has underperformed in terms of on-field expectations.

2. Virginia is the more disciplined football team

The Cavaliers are flagged for an average of 5.3 penalties per game (a number which is primarily boosted by their game against Syracuse). In comparison, SMU is penalized in average of 7.8 times per game. Virginia also has a sizable advantage in terms of turnovers. It has only lost one fumble and one interception, while the Mustangs have lost four fumbles and five interceptions.

3. Cavaliers can control the clock and field position better

Daniel Sparks deserves votes for team MVP. The veteran punter is averaging an incredible 49.9 yards per punt. That means that when Virginia stalls out, opposing offenses often start their drives deep in their own territory. That pressure is magnified when the Cavaliers go on long, methodical drives of their own. On average, Virginia has had the ball a few minutes than SMU. In fact, Mustangs opponents have usually held the ball longer than SMU.

There are reasons why the Cavaliers are underdogs by 7.5 points

1. Virginia has had two ugly losses in both of its games away from Scott Stadium

This team still has to prove itself. A 4-2 record halfway through the season is decent, but both of those double-digit losses came away from Charlottesville. Virginia still has not won a road game this year. It will likely experience another raucous environment in Dallas this weekend. Winning is hard. Winning a road game is even harder. The challenge for these Cavaliers is to prove that they can, with a valuable ranked win on the table.

2. In general, the Cavaliers have only played one complete game vs a Power Four team

Virginia played a near-perfect game in its season opener against NC State. Since then, the Cavaliers struggled mightily against West Virginia and Delaware — and then struggled some more against Syracuse before a late-game turnaround. Virginia has to prove that it can play 60 (or even 30) minutes of elite football.

3. SMU is coming off of a bye week, and its problems are fixable

The Cavaliers had some players go down with injury against Syracuse. The status of Rico Flores Jr. and others will be updated Tuesday or Wednesday. Meanwhile, the Mustangs are healthy and rested off of an early bye week.

The bye provides valuable practice time, which is valuable for an SMU squad that has been surprisingly sloppy with coughing up turnovers and missing assignments. Those are generally fixable problems. Virginia, however, has some personnel issues with Jacobie Henderson and Ethan Minter struggling both in coverage and run defense.