Tajikistan’s Ayni district in Sughd province and parts of Dushanbe are among the areas most exposed to landslide risks in Central Asia, according to a regional assessment that estimates potential direct losses from landslides across the region at $3.59 billion.
The findings are presented in an article titled Landslide Risks in Central Asian Cities, published on October 14 and based on a regional assessment by researchers Francesco Caleca, Chiara Scaini, William Frodella and Veronica Tofani. The study covers approximately 4 million square kilometers across Central Asia.
In Kyrgyzstan, the areas most vulnerable to landslides are mountainous and foothill districts. In Uzbekistan, they include the Ohangaron district of Tashkent region and part of the Tashkent–Osh transport corridor. In Kazakhstan, several foothill districts of Almaty and Almaty region are also considered vulnerable.
Potential damage estimated at $3.59 billion
The researchers estimate potential direct losses from landslides across Central Asia at $3.59 billion, with transport infrastructure accounting for the largest share.
Potential losses are estimated at approximately $3.02 billion for roads, $382 million for railways and $186 million for buildings.
The assessment examines landslide risks to populations, buildings, roads and railways. The calculations were conducted across the region at a spatial resolution of 200 meters.
Why are landslide risks high?
The researchers link landslide hazards in Central Asia to the region’s mountainous terrain, high seismic activity and the expansion of construction into potentially dangerous areas.
Heavy rainfall, snowmelt and earthquakes can destabilize slopes, triggering landslides that destroy buildings, block roads and damage bridges, electricity networks and water supply systems.
Urban expansion, changes in land use and construction in high-risk areas can further increase potential economic losses, the researchers note.
What measures are recommended?
The researchers recommend incorporating landslide, mudflow and flood hazard maps into urban planning, restricting construction on unstable slopes and in floodplains, and monitoring areas above populated settlements.
Other proposed measures include establishing early warning systems, identifying evacuation routes in advance and conducting emergency drills.
For critical infrastructure such as roads, bridges, water intake facilities and electricity networks, the study recommends providing alternative transport routes, water supply sources and power supplies to reduce disruption during disasters.
The study by Caleca and his co-authors was published in the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences in January 2024. It was described as the first detailed quantitative assessment of landslide risk covering Central Asia as a whole.