BRAZIL · RUNOFF
Key Facts
- The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest economy, holds a presidential runoff on Sunday 25 October between President Lula and conservative senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
- What happened On Tuesday 13 October, an electoral court judge gave Jorge Messias, the government’s top lawyer, 24 hours to delete a pro-Lula AI video.
- The video It shows an AI-made old man and a child in “Lula 13” shirts, posted on Instagram on Saturday 10 October.
- The rule Brazil’s election rules require AI-made images or voices in campaign material to carry a clear warning that names the technology used.
- Still open The judge left any fine, and whether the clip is a banned deepfake, to the court’s final ruling.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro an 86.2% chance of winning the 25 October runoff (14 October, 2:34 a.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 86% and Kalshi at 88% (Lula: 15% and 15%), as of 14 October, 2:20 am ET; prices are bets, not polls.
A judge on Brazil’s electoral court has ordered Jorge Messias, Lula’s top government lawyer, to take down a pro-Lula AI video within 24 hours. The clip on his Instagram account showed people and voices made with artificial intelligence but gave viewers no warning.
The order, issued on Tuesday 13 October, also covers Meta, the California company that owns Instagram, 12 days before the 25 October runoff. Five days earlier, the full court had ordered Lula’s rival to delete an unlabelled AI video of the president.
What the AI Video Showed
The pro-Lula AI video went up on Messias’s Instagram account on Saturday 10 October, six days after the first round. It shows an elderly man and a child in red shirts printed with “Lula 13”, the president’s ballot number, getting ready for a car rally.
Flávio Bolsonaro, the conservative senator who faces Lula in the runoff, took the case to the court on Monday 12 October. His lawyers wrote that “the scene never happened, the people never existed”, and that the clip never said it was synthetic.
Who Is Who in the Case
Jorge Messias is the Advogado-Geral da União, the head of the AGU, the federal government’s legal arm, with the rank of a cabinet minister. Lula seeks a fourth term for the left-wing Workers’ Party (PT), which is chaired by Edinho Silva.
Flávio, a senator for Rio de Janeiro and the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, runs for the Liberal Party (PL). The PL, led by Valdemar Costa Neto, is the main party of Brazil’s conservative right.
What the Judge Decided
Marco Aurélio Bellizze, a substitute judge of the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), issued a preliminary order that partly granted Flávio’s request. Messias must remove the pro-Lula AI video within 24 hours, and it may not return without the warning the rules require.
Bellizze, who also sits on Brazil’s top court for non-constitutional cases, was assigned on 7 October to rule on runoff campaign-ad complaints. Under the court’s rules, such preliminary orders go straight to the full seven-member court for review.
“The rule does not make removal depend on how realistic the content is,” Bellizze wrote, according to Correio Braziliense and Agenda do Poder. Nor does it depend, he added, “on proof that the voter was actually misled.”
What Brazil’s AI Election Rules Say
Under Resolution 23.610, the TSE’s campaign rulebook, anyone using AI-made images or sounds in campaign material must say so “explicitly, prominently and accessibly.” The warning must name the technology, and videos need it at the start and as an on-screen label.
A separate article bans deepfakes, AI clips that fake the image or voice of a real or fictional person to help or hurt a candidate. Breaking that ban can count as abuse of power and can cost a candidate his registration or mandate.
The Same Rule Hit Flávio Last Week
The rules cut both ways: on 8 October, the TSE unanimously ordered Flávio to delete three posts on X within 24 hours. One was an unlabelled AI video showing Lula in a scene that never happened.
That case was brought by the PT-led alliance behind Lula, which accused Flávio of early negative campaigning. The court is also handling a separate fight over Meta and election content, laid out in Brazil’s Meta ruling and what comes next.
What It Means for You
For Americans, the case shows that one Brazilian judge can order a campaign post deleted within a day, even on a US-owned platform like Instagram. Unlabelled AI clips on either side may disappear quickly in the last 11 days of the race.
For investors in Brazilian stocks and the real, Brazil’s currency, the order matters less than the polls and the runoff itself. It does show that AI content will stay under close court watch until the vote on 25 October.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro an 86.2% chance of winning and Lula 14.5% (14 October, 2:34 a.m. ET). About US$181 million has been bet on that market, the main contract on the race.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 86.1% · Lula 14.5% (US$181 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 88% · Lula 15%
As of 14 October, 2:20 am ET (07:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
It is not known whether Messias has already deleted the pro-Lula AI video, or whether he or the AGU will appeal to the full court. Brazilian reports on the order carry no comment from Messias, the AGU or Lula’s campaign.
Bellizze left the fine and the deepfake question for the final ruling, whose date is not yet known. Flávio’s lawyers asked for a fine of R$5,000 to R$30,000 (about US$1,000 to US$6,000, at 5.02 reais to the dollar) against Messias.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did Brazil’s electoral court order the pro-Lula AI video removed?
The video used AI-made people and voices but carried no warning that it was synthetic. Brazil’s campaign rules require such content to be labelled clearly, with the technology named.
Who is Jorge Messias?
Jorge Messias is Brazil’s Advogado-Geral da União, the head of the federal government’s legal arm, with cabinet rank. He posted the pro-Lula AI video on his Instagram account on Saturday 10 October.
Will Messias be fined?
Not yet, because the judge left any fine over the pro-Lula AI video to the court’s final ruling. Flávio Bolsonaro’s lawyers asked for R$5,000 to R$30,000 (about US$1,000 to US$6,000).
Does Brazil ban AI in election campaigns?
No, AI content is allowed if it carries a clear warning that names the technology used. Deepfakes that create or alter a person’s image or voice to help or hurt a candidate are banned.
When is Brazil’s presidential runoff?
Brazil votes on Sunday 25 October, choosing between President Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro. Results usually come in on election night, as Brazil counts its votes electronically.
Sources: Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE), Resolution 23.610/2019, compiled text (arts. 9-B and 9-C), 2026 version; Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE), Marco Aurélio Bellizze designated auxiliary propaganda judge for the runoff, 7 October 2026; Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE), TSE orders AI videos posted by Flávio Bolsonaro removed, 8 October 2026; Correio Braziliense, TSE judge orders Jorge Messias to remove AI-made pro-Lula video, 13 October 2026; A Crítica de Campo Grande, TSE orders Jorge Messias to remove AI pro-Lula video, 13 October 2026; Agenda do Poder, TSE orders Jorge Messias to delete AI video backing Lula, 14 October 2026; O Antagonista, Flávio takes AGU chief to the TSE over AI pro-Lula video, 12 October 2026; Fato Amazônico, Flávio Bolsonaro files TSE complaint against Jorge Messias, 12 October 2026; SBT News, TSE orders Messias to delete AI-made pro-Lula video, 14 October 2026; CNN Brasil, Flávio takes Messias to the TSE over alleged AI use backing Lula, 12 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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