California Post poll has signs of hope — except for third-place Gavin Newsom

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Steve Hilton is doing better than expected.

That’s the key takeaway from the statewide poll conducted by The California Post among 800 likely voters from Oct. 17 to 20.

The Republican candidate has run an energetic campaign, focused on ideas. And he did well in the debate earlier this month. 

He’s begun closing the gap — somewhat.

Hilton still trails Democrat Xavier Becerra by double digits. But he’s now within 16 points, trailing the Democrat 55.0% to 39.3%. That’s closer than the old RealClearPolitics average of 23.2%.

Hilton is also more well-liked than the Republican Party. He’s just barely underwater — 39.0% favorable to 42.5% unfavorable. His party, in contrast, only has a 37.1% favorable rating, versus a 59.0% unfavorable rating.

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If Hilton falls short on Election Day, local Republicans may well wonder what might have been if the national party had put money and effort into helping him win.

The good news for Republicans is that California voters don’t like Democrats very much, either — they have a net positive approval rating of just 1.1%. 

Voters are equally divided over Becerra, and they have turned sour on incumbent Gov. Gavin Newsom. 

Only 47.2% of voters say Newsom is doing a good job; 50.4% disapprove of his job in office, perhaps reflecting his increasing focus on his presidential ambitions and his trips to early primary states. 

Newsom is leaving office at a low point. The poll shows that only 30.1% of voters believe California is on the right track, while 56.2% say it is on the wrong track. Worse, 44% of voters have thought about leaving the state altogether.

That’s Newsom’s legacy in California. Failure, disappointment, and pessimism about the future.

And it explains why Newsom is only running in third place in his home state.

Only 14.4% of Democratic voters in the poll said Newsom was their preferred presidential candidate, behind New York Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (18.4%) and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg (16.7%).

You have to be doing pretty badly in California to be losing to Buttigieg — a guy who disappeared from his job for two months without explanation in 2021, while cargo ships piled up at the ports.

Former Vice President Kamala Harris, who has been hinting that she thinks she can run again, is doing even worse. She is the fifth choice for California Democrats, with 7.1% support. Her own party’s voters seem to think that Harris has had her chance, and failed, and should step aside for someone else to make a run.

The most interesting contests on the California ballot this year are the propositions. There are 14 of them. 

The most prominent are Proposition 39, which would require ID or a PIN number to vote; and Proposition 40, the “billionaire tax,” a one-time confiscation of 5% of the wealth of the state’s richest.

Proposition 39 is losing, but still has a chance, with 45.6% of likely voters supporting it, and 47.8% opposing it. A big effort from the Yes camp in the closing days could push voter ID across the finish line. 

Perhaps some California-style ballot harvesting would be useful in passing Proposition 39. After all, no ID is required (yet).

It’s not that voter ID is unpopular in California. But opponents have tied it to the Republican Party, and that’s enough for many voters in the Golden State to turn away. It’s possible that the recent, high-profile arrests of noncitizens for voting in California might convince voters to give ID a chance.

Proposition 40 is also struggling. A majority — 52.6% — of likely voters say that they oppose the “billionaire tax,” and only 34.5% support it. If accurate, that would be a profound reversal from earlier polls during the campaign. Evidently the sight of entrepreneurs leaving the state has had a sobering effect.

What these results also suggest is that while partisan loyalties remain strong in California, the electorate retains a streak of independence — the same streak that saw voters turn down affirmative action in 2020, the same year that they chose Joe Biden over Donald Trump by a 2-to-1 margin.

If the “billionaire tax” fails, proponents of Proposition 40 will look back with regret on their decision to make the tax retroactive to Jan. 1, 2026. That is what triggered the exodus of billionaires in late 2025, which instantly raised public awareness of the proposal — as well as of its staggering economic costs.

Overall, in a year when the electorate is hungry for change, the results of the poll suggest that what California voters are likely to get is the status quo instead.

Give Hilton credit for keeping things interesting, and changing some minds. His efforts may pay off one day. Given more time, and more money, he might have made the race more competitive. But perhaps not this November.

Joel Pollak is Opinion editor of the California Post.