Spain’s new parliament will meet for the first time on 23 December 2026, 24 days after the Spain Election 2026 vote on 29 November. The session opens at 10:00 in Madrid (4:00 a.m. ET), according to the Royal Decree that called the election.
For US readers, the date matters because Spain’s next government, and its stance on trade, defence and Latin America, cannot take shape before then. Until it meets, the polls and prediction markets are the only guide to who will govern.
Key Facts
- When: Spain’s new Congress and Senate meet on 23 December 2026 at 10:00 in Madrid (4:00 a.m. ET).
- Vote: Spaniards vote on Sunday, 29 November, for all 350 Congress seats and most Senate seats.
- Majority: A party or bloc needs 176 of the 350 Congress seats to govern.
- Polls: IMOP Insights has the conservative PP on 123 seats, the Socialists on 113 and Vox on 72.
- Split: The state-run CIS survey puts the Socialists first, at 34.0% against 22.2% for the PP.
- Prediction markets: Polymarket gave the PP about 76.5% to win on 25 October, 6:52 a.m. ET.
The Calendar Is Already Fixed
Both chambers have been dissolved since 6 October, when Royal Decree 806/2026 appeared in Spain’s official gazette, the Boletín Oficial del Estado. The decree is dated 5 October and calls the vote for 29 November.
The campaign runs from 13 November to 27 November, and 26 October is the deadline for candidate lists. The election fills all 350 seats of the lower house, the Congress of Deputies, and most seats in the Senate.
Polls Point in Opposite Directions
The newest named poll, from IMOP Insights and published on 23 October, puts the conservative People’s Party (PP) on 28.5% and 123 seats. The governing Socialists (PSOE) are on 27.1% and 113 seats, and the conservative Vox party is on 20.0% and 72 seats.
That would give the PP and Vox 195 seats together, 19 above the majority line. A Sigma Dos poll for El Mundo, with fieldwork from 1 October to 14 October among 3,007 people, has the PP on 136 seats, Vox on 65 and the Socialists on 104.
The state-run CIS survey tells another story. Its October barometer, based on 5,025 interviews from 1 October to 6 October, puts the Socialists first on 34.0%, ahead of the PP on 22.2% and Vox on 17.1%.
What Prediction Markets Say
On 25 October at 6:52 a.m. ET, Polymarket’s “Spain General Election Winner” market priced a PP win at about 76.5%, with US$171,234 traded. Kalshi, a US exchange regulated by the CFTC, priced Alberto Núñez Feijóo at 78% to be prime minister, Pedro Sánchez at 23% and Santiago Abascal of Vox at 6%.
These prices are bets, not polls. Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely.
We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Why Sánchez Called the Vote
Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez announced the early election on 5 October after Congress rejected two government housing decrees. Our Pedro Sánchez profile and the poll split report trace the lead-up.
The open question on the right is whether the PP of Alberto Núñez Feijóo and Vox can turn a polling majority into a government. The two were negotiating over joint Senate lists as of 20 October, and no deal had been reported by 25 October.
What It Means for US Readers
Spain is the euro area’s fourth-largest economy, so its government shapes European policy on trade, defence and migration. A PP-led coalition would be a test of whether Europe’s conservatives can turn poll leads into majorities.
Markets favour the PP while the CIS favours the Socialists. The gap is wide, so the 29 November result is harder to call than the odds suggest.
What Is Not Known
It is not known whether the PP and Vox lead in private polls will survive the campaign. The sources do not agree on which polls are more reliable.
It is also unknown whether the PP and Vox would form a government or face a deadlock. Turnout, tactical voting, regional-party results and the final seat split remain open.
Frequently Asked Questions
When will Spain’s new parliament first meet?
The new Congress and Senate meet on Wednesday, 23 December 2026, at 10:00 in Madrid (4:00 a.m. ET). The date is set in the Royal Decree that called the election.
What do the latest polls show for 29 November?
IMOP Insights, published 23 October, has the conservative PP on 123 seats, the Socialists on 113 and Vox on 72. The state-run CIS survey instead puts the Socialists first, at 34.0% against 22.2% for the PP.
What are prediction markets saying about Spain?
Polymarket gave the PP about 76.5% to win the election on 25 October. Kalshi, a US market regulated by the CFTC, gave Alberto Núñez Feijóo 78% to be prime minister.
How many seats does a party need to govern?
A majority in the 350-seat Congress of Deputies is 176 seats. A party that falls short must win the support of others.
Why is Spain voting early?
Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called the election on 5 October after Congress rejected two government housing decrees. A Royal Decree dissolved both chambers the next day.
Sources: Boletín Oficial del Estado (Royal Decree 806/2026), Spanish Senate, Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas (CIS), IMOP Insights, Sigma Dos/El Mundo, Polymarket, Kalshi.
Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error
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