Kingmakers with limits: How far can the outgoing governors go in installing their successors?

Ten governors who must leave office on May 28, 2027 have chosen their preferred successors during the primary elections held earlier in the year. INEC’s final list for the governorship election has also shown that most of the choices made by the outgoing governors are on the ballot. But SIKIRU OBARAYESE reports that the selection process is only a part of the battle ahead, as the electorate will soon be called upon to show the side the pendulum would swing in the respective states.

Governors are not just powerful as far as the working of the Fourth Republic Politics is concerned. They are kingmakers. They determine members of the State House of Assembly, House of Representatives, the Senate and also pick their own second term tickets at will. Besides that, governors, after serving two four-year terms, amounting to eight years in office, further test the waters by seeking to produce a successor. On many occasions, they succeed in achieving that. Some other times, the bubble burst so early as the man they helped into office soon become a arch enemy.

As the build-up to the 2027 election gathers momentum, the governors and the entire electoral system are at it again. The outgoing governors appreaed to have scaled the first huddle, now the ball is set to land in the court of the electorate as the umpire, Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), prepares to blow the whistle on February 6, 2027.

But there is variety if colours emerging on the route towards 2027. While some governors are repeating the traditional powers of kingmakers, some of their colleagues are being made to cope with unexpected realities.

In the build-up to the Adamawa State scenario, the Governor Ahmadu Umaru Fintiri did not just pick his choice as the candidate of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), he moved the entire PDP structure, from ward to state level, into the APC. His preferred successor, Dr Felix Tangwami, then ended up being pushed into the senatorial contest, while the APC ticket went to Ahmed Tijjani Galadima, a former Executive Secretary of the Petroleum Technology Development Fund, who was described in some quarters as “widely known as the preferred candidate of NSA Ribadu.”

The case shows the limit of a governor’s power to choose a successor. In most of the affected states this season, the role of kingmaker was retained, while in some instances the incumbent gave up the power to the all-conquering influence of Abuja.

Ten governors who won in 2019 and again in 2023 are serving their last terms and would see their likely successors face governorship elections on February 6, 2027. They are in Lagos, Ogun, Oyo, Kwara, Borno, Yobe, Nasarawa, Gombe, Bauchi and Adamawa. A special case that occupies the eleventh spot is the Rivers State Governor, Siminalayi Fubara, who would be completing only in his first term in 2027, but his name is already ousted from the ballot.

Where the governors held sway

Reports had indicated that the ground rules for the party’s primary election were established during a meeting between President Bola Tinubu and APC governors. This meeting was said to have empowered the governors to control their territories and nominate successors. That was confirmed by Kwara Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq, who stated that President Tinubu had granted governors the flexibility to conduct primaries either through consensus or direct voting. Many governors used the toolkits to change the status of their preferred aspirants to candidates.

In Borno, Governor Babagana Umara Zulum named his Commissioner for Works, Engr Mustapha Gubio, as his choice by handing him the APC nomination forms in Abuja, Nigerian Tribune reported. Days later, Zulum presented Gubio to Vice-President Kashim Shettima as the consensus candidate. “I would also like to commend the President, who has been instrumental in the emergence of Gubio as the consensus candidate,” the report quoted the governor as saying.

In Yobe State, Governor Mai Mala Buni endorsed his Secretary to the State Government, Baba Malam Wali, and took up Senate forms himself. Wali won the May primary with 236,711 votes. His challenger, Abubakar Bukar Kagu, polled 9,748.

Also in Nasarawa State, Governor Abdullahi Sule said that Senator Ahmed Aliyu Wadada came from a shortlist of three after “exhaustive consultations”. Wadada won the APC primary with 195,285 votes. A former Inspector-General of Police, Mohammed Adamu, polled 39,675.

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In Gombe State, Dr Jamilu Ishiaku Gwamna won the APC primary with 247,161 votes. Professor Isa Ali Ibrahim Pantami polled 12,120 and Senator Saidu Ahmed Alkali polled 11,612. Both had withdrawn or boycotted before the vote. It was reported that Gwamna “was earlier picked as the consensus candidate of the APC but there was resistance”. Pantami then moved to the PDP and won its ticket.

As for Bauchi State, Governor Bala Mohammed showed that a governor can also take his machine to another party. He moved his base to the Allied Peoples Movement (APM). There, the former Finance Commissioner, Dr Yakubu Adamu, was affirmed as governorship candidate, while the governor himself became the party’s candidate for Bauchi South Senatorial District. While Mohammed was quoted to have said : “We do not want to open the floodgates to controversy or dissension,” he also called the vote a “testing ground because it is the first time the party we have brought on board is participating in an election.”

The South-West three

In Lagos, Ogun and Oyo, all three governors got the candidate they wanted on the ballot. Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu’s deputy, Dr Obafemi Hamzat, took the APC ticket with almost no contest.

In Ogun, Governor Dapo Abiodun did a quick turn around and backed Senator Solomon Olamilekan Adeola, in line with the demands for zoning in the state. Ogun West had not produced a governor in nearly 50 years abd the push has been on for a while. INEC’s removal of the PDP’s Ladi Adebutu from the ballot appears a huge jolt for the opposition, which had seen Adebutu as the strongest challenger against the APC in Ogun.

In Oyo, Governor Seyi Makinde used a Facebook post to confirm Bimbo Adekanmbi as his preferred successor on the APM platform, Nigerian Tribune reported. Makinde is also the APM’s presidential candidate, so a weak showing for him in January could drag on Adekanmbi in February.

Where the governor’s word couldnt hold

In Kwara State, Governor Abdulrasaq Abdulrahman on May 19, Abdulrahman issued a signed statement endorsing businessman Abdulfatai Yahaya Seriki-Gambari, whom he described, as “young, pro-people, astute, and broad-minded”. Less than 72 hours later, the governor’s camp had switched to the Speaker of the House of Assembly, Yakubu Danladi-Salihu. The switch was said to have followed an all-night meeting with the primary committee led by Senator Musiliu Obanikoro. Danladi-Salihu, the Speaker of the House of Assembly won the primary ekection with 94,990 votes to Seriki’s 41,700. It was reported that several aspirants had earlier boycotted a meeting the governor called “amid fears of an attempt to impose a consensus candidate”.

Reports indicate that Governor AbdulRazaq’s original choice was “said to conflict with preferences attributed to the presidency. “There are speculations that the PDP, led by former Senate President Bukola Saraki, was stepping up its effort to win the state back, after harvesting a goid number of aggreived APC members.

Investigations revealed that in Adamawa, Fintiri’s defection to the APC might have come in too late for him to control the party’s structure. Galadima won with 414,444 votes, while Abdulrazak Namdas Saad polled 86,004 and Abdulrahman Haske 65,930, according to the returning officer, Innocent Barikor. Haske said in a statement that results from some local government areas were still being collated when the winner was declared. The governor welcomed the emergence of Galadima, as it was reported on state government’s website.

The case of Governor Sim Fubara of Rivers State appears to be a reverse case. A sitting governor was eased out by his predecessor. The APC declared Kingsley Chinda its candidate after Governor Fubara withdrew from the primary. Former Governor Nyesom Wike, the FCT Minister, said Fubara had “signed agreement not to seek second term” while in another account, the minister also claimed that an impeachment threat forced Fubara out. The APC national chairman, Nentawe Yilwatda, said Fubara “withdrew voluntarily.” Though, a number of political watchers are of the view Chinda’s eligibility for the February 2027 election because of a ruling of the Supreme Court, which affirms the fact that parties must submit their membership reguster before the conduct of primaries. The Premium Times had reported that he registered with the APC on April 27, 2026, but announced his defection from the PDP only on June 2, after the May 21 primary. INEC has nonetheless listed him.

What history says

Nigeria’s record since 1999 is mixed. In Lagos, Bola Tinubu was succeeded by Babatunde Fashola in 2007, and Fashola by Akinwunmi Ambode in 2015. In Kaduna, Nasir El-Rufai was succeeded by Uba Sani in 2023. In Rivers, Wike installed Fubara in 2023, and the two later fell out.

Not all governors have succeeded in installing successors though. In Ogun in 2019, Governor Ibikunle Amosun’s candidate, Adekunle Akinlade, lost to Dapo Abiodun after leaving the APC for the APM. In the same year in Oyo State, Governor Abiola Ajimobi’s candidate, Adebayo Adelabu, lost to Seyi Makinde. In Imo, Rochas Okorocha’s son-in-law, Uche Nwosu, lost in 2019. In Kano in 2023, Abdullahi Ganduje’s deputy, Nasiru Gawuna, lost to Abba Kabir Yusuf. In Zamfara in 2019, the Supreme Court voided the APC’s candidates after a primary crisis under Governor Abdulaziz Yari, and the party lost every seat it had won.

Ogun and Imo point to a pattern. A governor who leaves the ruling party to keep his choice alive has usually lost. That is the bet Makinde in Oyo and Bala Mohammed in Bauchi are now making on the APM. Imposition can also cost a ruling party.

So how far can governors go? On this year’s record, a governor in the ruling APC who keeps on the right side of Abuja can still get his candidate onto the ballot. Borno, Yobe, Nasarawa and Gombe show that. A governor whose choice clashes with the Presidency or its allies can be overruled, as in Kwara and Adamawa, or even unseated as a candidate, as in Rivers. A governor outside the ruling party has to build a new platform from scratch, as in Oyo and Bauchi.

Again, the nomination is only the first round of the battleline. Voters will decide the second round of the battle when the election opens on February 6, 2027.