A Republican-aligned super PAC mistakenly bought ads attacking Maine Democratic Senate candidate Troy Jackson in the wrong state, the PAC confirmed to Newsweek on Monday.
“During a recent independent expenditure, our media vendor mistakenly placed approximately $25,000 in digital advertising in the Portland, Oregon media market instead of Portland, Maine,” Defending Main Street wrote in a statement to Newsweek.
Once the error was identified, the ads were “immediately stopped and corrected,” the statement said. The vendor is also refunding the PAC the full amount of the misplaced spend, and no donor funds will be lost.
The Maine Senate race is expected to be among the most competitive of the 2026 midterm elections. Maine leans Democratic, as President Donald Trump lost by 7 points in 2024, but incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins remains a formidable opponent, having won by wide margins in past elections.
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Still, Democrats believe Jackson, the former president of the Maine Senate, has a strong chance to unseat Collins in a national environment expected to favor Democrats this year, as Trump’s national approval rating declines amid growing frustration with the economy and the high cost of living.
The advertisement was purchased by the Defending Main Street PAC, which supports moderate Republicans. The digital ad attacks Jackson’s tax record, saying Maine “can’t afford Troy Jackson and all his taxes.”
The ad was seen more than 1.25 million times, according to data from the Google Ads Transparency Center.
Screenshots spread across social media showed that Oregon-based ZIP codes were selected for the ad, but by Monday afternoon, the ad was set to the correct region.
Dan Gottlieb, a Jackson spokesperson, posted about the error on X.
“Susan Collins and her allies are so out of touch with Maine, they can’t even find it on a map. Good luck convincing Mainers you know what’s best for them when you don’t know which Portland they live in,” he wrote.
Why the Maine Senate Race Matters in the 2026 Midterms
The Maine Senate race is one of a handful of toss-ups that could determine whether Democrats or Republicans control the Senate after the midterms. It’s seen as one of Democrats’ top pickup opportunities to flip a GOP-held seat given the state’s Democratic lean and the national environment, despite Collins historically being a strong candidate.
Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority, so Democrats have to flip four seats to win control of the Senate, as Vice President JD Vance would serve as the tiebreaker in an evenly divided chamber. In addition to Maine, North Carolina, which Trump won by 3 points, is seen as a top Democratic flip opportunity.
No other GOP-held seats exist in states Trump won by a single-digit margin or outright lost in 2024, so Democrats already have to win two double-digit Trump states to reach a majority.
If Democrats fail to flip Maine, their path to a Senate majority would narrow, as they’d have to make up that loss by winning in an additional double-digit Trump state with less favorable fundamentals for their party.
What Latest Polls Show About the Maine Senate Race
Polling suggests a close race in Maine.
On Friday, a new poll from The Washington Post and George Mason University, conducted from September 30 to October 5, showed Jackson up 4 points over Collins, 50 percent to 46 percent, among 800 likely voters. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.
Jackson also led by 4 points in a recent Marist University poll of 1,505 registered voters from October 1 to 4. Jackson’s support stood at 51 percent, while 47 percent supported Collins in the poll, which had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
But a YouGov/CBS News poll showed a dead heat, with each candidate at 50 percent. It surveyed 1,136 likely voters from September 23 to October 1 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 percentage points.
Polls underestimated Collins in her 2020 bid: she trailed Democrat Sara Gideon in public surveys but won reelection with over 50 percent of the vote.
What Prediction Markets Show
Jackson was narrowly ahead of Collins in prediction markets on Monday, having a 58 percent chance of winning on Kalshi and a 59 percent chance on Polymarket.
Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates. Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always predict the future accurately.
Maine Senate Race: Latest Developments
Jackson has received support from well-known Democrats in the past few days. Former President Barack Obama endorsed Jackson on Thursday, while Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, an independent who caucuses with Democrats, traveled to the state to campaign with him over the weekend.
Trump has also floated the idea of visiting Maine ahead of the midterms in remarks to reporters.
Collins and Jackson also faced off in two debates last week and are expected to take the debate stage again this week for two more. One of the most viral moments came as Collins cast herself as a critic of Trump’s tariffs, touting her efforts to obtain relief for products like road salt, which cities in rural Maine import from Canada.
Jackson said that minor exemptions did little to offset the broader trade policy implemented by the Trump administration, responding, “We can’t eat road salt.”
Like in other states, economic issues such as the high price of home heating oil are expected to play a major role in Maine this year.
Collins, meanwhile, has broken with Trump over his plan to import Russian diesel to combat high prices.
In a statement quoted by the Maine-based news station WMTW-TV, Collins said: "I oppose President Trump’s decision to lift sanctions on the purchase of diesel from Russia. I was a cosponsor of the Russian sanctions law, which the president recently signed but is now not following."
What Happens Next
Two more debates are scheduled for October 13, hosted by WABI and WAGM, and October 15, hosted by News Center Maine, The Portland Press Herald and Maine Public.
Forecasters expect a close race. Both the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball view it as a toss-up.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jenni Fink and Sam Wilson.