The Briefing:
- Early voting launched Monday across all of Texas and in the majority of Florida counties, opening the final two weeks of competition in a midterm cycle where Latino voters have become the most closely analyzed variable in competitive races for governor and Congress in both states.
- A Reuters/Ipsos poll published October 5 recorded Hispanic approval of President Trump at just 24%, the lowest figure of either of his presidential terms, as four major Latino civic organizations execute the largest coordinated Hispanic voter engagement campaign in recent history.
- Economic anxiety unites Hispanic voters across party lines — 53% name cost of living and inflation as their top concern, and Pew Research confirmed the economy is the decisive issue regardless of which party Latino voters support.
MIAMI/AUSTIN — Early voting kicked off Monday across all of Texas and in the majority of Florida's counties, firing the starting gun on a midterm election cycle in which the Hispanic community has emerged as arguably the most closely watched voting bloc in the country. Both states carry enormous consequences for the balance of power in Congress and the outcomes of competitive gubernatorial contests, with Latino voters sitting squarely at the center of the political calculus in each.
A Community Too Large to Ignore
The demographic weight of the Hispanic vote in these two states has become impossible to sideline. Florida is home to roughly 3.3 million eligible Latino voters, making up about 20% of all voters in the state, while Hispanics account for an estimated 28.7% of the state's total population. In the counties that opened their doors first — Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach among them — Latino voters represent a substantial share of the active electorate. Texas, where Latinos constitute approximately 40% of residents, launched statewide early voting the same morning, with the window running through October 30.
The two states are home to distinct Hispanic subgroups with notably different political tendencies. Cuban Americans in South Florida have leaned Republican in recent cycles, while Puerto Rican and Central American voters elsewhere have pulled in a different direction. In Texas, Trump came close to a majority of Latino voters in 2024, winning 48%, but polling and primary results have since left Democrats optimistic about reclaiming much of that ground.
Florida's Governor Race Goes Down to the Wire
The top of the Florida ballot is generating the most national attention. Republican Byron Donalds and Democrat David Jolly — a former Republican congressman who switched parties — are locked in a competitive fight for the governorship. Multiple polls point to a single-digit race: the RCP polling average gives Donalds roughly a five-point edge, while the most recent Change Research survey from September placed the Jolly-Graham Democratic ticket narrowly ahead of the Donalds-Avila Republican ticket, 47% to 44%. The race is being fought largely on economic terrain: 70% of Floridians told pollsters they are falling behind on cost of living, and 65% said the state is no longer affordable for them or their family.
Among congressional contests, the battle in Florida's 27th District is drawing particular scrutiny within the Hispanic community. Republican incumbent María Elvira Salazar faces Democrat Eliott Rodriguez, a retired Cuban-American broadcast journalist and former CBS4 anchor who won the Democratic primary in August. Both are Cuban-American, both have careers in broadcast journalism, and both interviewed Fidel Castro during those careers. Salazar, a three-term congresswoman who has held the seat since January 2021, has drawn a challenger with deep name recognition in South Florida. State law mandates that all counties provide early voting by Saturday, October 25 at the latest, with most having already launched. President Trump has announced two Florida rallies in support of Donalds before November 3.
Texas: Statistically Tied at the Top
Early voting in Texas began Monday, October 19, and runs through Friday, October 30, with high-profile races for both governor and U.S. Senate commanding national attention. Republican incumbent Greg Abbott and Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa are effectively deadlocked in the race to become the state's next governor, according to an N+/Univision poll — a remarkable development in a state Republicans have dominated statewide for three decades.
The Senate contest is equally tense. Democrat James Talarico holds a narrow lead over Republican Ken Paxton in several recent surveys, with a University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll showing him ahead 50% to 47% within the margin of error. Both campaigns have directed significant closing-stretch resources toward suburban Dallas and Houston. Talarico made his first in-person campaign appearance in over a week when he surfaced at the Austin City Limits Music Festival on October 9 following a nine-day illness-related absence that had prompted GOP "proof of life" demands, while Hinojosa made headlines on October 15 when she appeared outside the Governor's Mansion with two podiums and an independent moderator to challenge Abbott to debate. Abbott did not appear — he was in East Texas with local law enforcement.
Kitchen Table Issues Drive the Hispanic Vote
The overarching theme uniting Latino voters across both states is the economy. A Pew Research Center survey published last week found that the economy is the single most important issue for Latino registered voters heading into the midterms, with 89% of Democratic-leaning Hispanic voters and 78% of Republican-leaning ones calling it very important. According to the UnidosUS bipartisan poll, 53% of Latino voters identify cost of living and inflation as their primary concern, ahead of jobs, housing, healthcare, and immigration reform, while 65% say Trump and congressional Republicans are not doing enough to improve economic conditions.
That financial discontent has reshaped Latino assessments of federal leadership. The UnidosUS poll found that 64% of Latino voters disapprove of President Trump's job performance. Separately, Pew found that about 70% of Latino respondents believe the Trump administration is going too far in its approach to immigration enforcement — the first time in nearly two decades of Pew tracking that Latino sentiment has shifted this negatively. A Reuters/Ipsos poll published October 5 placed Hispanic approval of Trump at just 24%, the lowest of either of his presidential terms, far below his 48% showing among Latino voters in the 2024 presidential race.
Mobilization Effort Without Precedent
Civic organizations are racing to channel that frustration into ballots. Four of the nation's largest Latino civic organizations — UnidosUS, the LULAC Institute, Mi Familia en Acción, and Latino Victory Foundation — have joined forces for the first time, aiming to connect with more than 5 million Hispanic voters and register 250,000 new ones before November 3. Internal polling surfaced a critical gap in outreach: 53% of Hispanic voters who participated in the Texas primary reported they had not been contacted by any candidate, party, or civic organization ahead of the elections.
With approximately 36.2 million Latinos now eligible to vote nationally — the country's fastest-growing electorate — the lines forming Monday at polling locations in Miami-Dade and Bexar County represent far more than a procedural formality. They are the opening act of a contest that could reshape the political map in ways neither party has fully modeled.
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