Ultimate Mismatch Is Among Three Reasons Why Packers Will Beat Lions

DETROIT – The Green Bay Packers have won three consecutive games. Jordan Love and his receivers are humming, the defense has allowed 14 points or less in each game and confidence is high.

Can they keep it going on Sunday against the Detroit Lions? Yes, and here are three reasons why.

Worst Pass Defense (Almost) Ever

The Lions’ pass defense is almost impossibly bad. They are last in the NFL with 297.4 passing yards allowed per game. They are on pace to be the first team to ever allow 5,000 passing yards in a season.

The 2011 Packers allowed the most passing yards in NFL history with 299.8 per game. That team went 15-1 and had opponents in catch-up mode all season. There is some of that element involved with the Lions’ pass defense, too, with opponents knowing they must keep up with their high-powered offense.

But Rock-Ya Sin and D.J. Reed are vulnerable at cornerback. Not even a high-powered pass rush has helped; the Lions are 29th in opponent passer rating. The Lions will regain the services of premier safety Brian Branch following last year’s torn Achilles but are still without fellow safety Kerby Joseph, who led the league with nine interceptions in 2024.

On paper, Jordan Love and the Packers’ explosive passing attack could have a big day.

“They’re No. 1 in the league when it comes to that category, as far as big plays, the deep balls,” Lions defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard said. “It's why Jordan Love is special. He has one of the best deep balls I've seen. He flicks it 50 yards off his fingertips. It's very impressive. They have two of the most explosive vertical receivers in the game. It's a tremendous challenge for us and we understand what we're going into.”

The “vertical receivers” are Christian Watson, who is fifth in the NFL with 538 receiving yards, third with 18.6 yards per catch and second with six touchdowns, and Matthew Golden, who is sixth with 501 yards, fifth with 16.7 yards per catch and tied for 13th with three touchdowns.

Combined, they are on pace for 2,943 yards and 25 touchdowns.

Entering Week 7, the Packers were third in the league with 24 completions of 20-plus yards, just one behind the league leaders. Watson entered the week tied for the lead with 10 with Golden next with nine. The Lions, on the other hand, were third in the league with 23 completions of 20-plus yards allowed.

The Lions will challenge the Packers in terms of their pass rush – they lead the NFL in sacks despite playing only five games – and the environment at Ford Field. But Love has shredded the Aidan Hutchinson-led Lions defense in his three road starts. He’s had passer ratings of greater than 111 in each game with eight touchdowns and zero interceptions with the Packers scoring 31, 31 and 29 points.

“It’s a good environment over there,” Love said. “They definitely got a loud crowd and it’s a tough place to play, but we’ve had the right mindset in the past. These NFC North games, you got to go out there and win, and we’ve done some good things, and I think it just comes down to us going out there and winning the matchups.

“We know them well. Their scheme has changed a little bit but, for the most part, a lot of the personnel, a lot of the calls are similar. So, yeah, it just comes down to figuring out what their plan is going to be on Sunday, what they want to do and go from there. But we’ve found ways to make plays and I feel like we’ve had good games. I don’t think there’s any rhyme or reason, but we got to do that again Sunday.”

Finally, Some Balance

The Packers have the worst rushing attack in the NFL and one of the worst in the history of mankind.

Finally, help has arrived with Josh Jacobs off the exempt list and ready to go for Sunday. His vision and toughness should make an immediate difference, even if it’s in a limited role.

“You can't defend all of it, so you better pick your poison and what you think means the most to you to stop,” Lions coach Dan Campbell told reporters this week. “We can't let this run game get going and they're going to try to establish the run. He's done that every week and nothing's going to change. I would anticipate Jacobs is going to be back. He brings another element to them.”

The Lions are 20th with 4.25 yards allowed per carry, so there should be opportunities – though it didn’t matter against the Cowboys’ worst-in-the-league run defense last week.

“They're probably over there just like we are about BB (Brian Branch), to be honest with you,” Lions defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard said this week. “It's kind of the same for them. Everybody's asking, 'How much is he going?' Listen, whenever you could gain an All-Pro player back, obviously, that's going to boost everything.”

The run game will be huge to open up the play-action attack, where the Packers can get the chunk gains the offense has depended on this season. The Cowboys weren’t buying what the Packers were trying to sell last week, so Love was just 1-of-7 in that phase last week after he threw for more than 240 yards vs. Chicago.

From that perspective, Jacobs could change everything in providing a running threat the Lions can’t just ignore.

“If they're able to get that thing really lit up and going now, it's problematic,” Campbell said.

Third Down and Red Zone

Detroit’s defense is all-around horrendous, though the return of Brian Branch will help and the pass rush ranks among the best in the league in terms of sacks (first) and pass-rush win rate (third).

The situational stats are green lights for the Packers. Here is the tale of the tape for Detroit’s defense:

On third down, the Lions are 30th. They’re also 30th in fourth down. In the red zone, Detroit ranks 31st with an opponent touchdown rate of 81 percent. It hasn’t had a single stop in goal-to-go situations.

Green Bay’s offense isn’t very good in any of those categories – 24th on third down, 12th on fourth down, 23rd in the red zone and 24th in goal-to-go – but an improved running game and the perimeter mismatches should swing this in the Packers’ favor.

“I still think they got some good players over there, good DBs, and we’ll see what their scheme is going to be for the game,” Love said. “You look at the film, they’ve mixed it up in a couple of their games, whether they want to play zone, whether they want to play man, whether they want to bring pressure.

“We’ll see. No matter who we’re playing, I always like our guys and our matchups, and we create some mismatches just with our speed and who we got on the outside.”

SIGN UP FOR OUR FREE DAILY PACKERS NEWSLETTER