Cabo Verde’s election commission says more than half of its work for the 15 November presidential vote is finished. The update comes as the campaign nears its start in the Cape Verde presidential election 2026 coverage of The Rio Times.
Cabo Verde is an Atlantic island nation off West Africa, and its president is elected directly. For US readers, the vote falls in the small hours and morning Eastern Time.
Key Facts
- Election day: Sunday, 15 November 2026, with polls open 08:00 to 18:00 Cabo Verde time (UTC−1), which is 4 a.m. to 2 p.m. ET.
- What changed: The election commission said on Thursday, 22 October, that more than half of its preparations are done.
- Runoff: If nobody wins more than half of valid votes, the top two meet on Sunday, 29 November.
- Candidates: Six are on the ballot, including President José Maria Neves and former Justice Minister Joana Rosa.
- Prediction markets: Polymarket gave Neves 83.5% to win as of 8:55 p.m. ET on 24 October; Kalshi gave his party PAICV 81%.
Election Preparations Move Past Halfway
The National Elections Commission (CNE) said on Thursday, 22 October, that more than half of the preparations for the presidential election are complete. CNE president Maria do Rosário Gonçalves gave the update, as reported by the Lusophone outlet e-Global.
No new poll, court ruling or change to the election timetable has been reported in the past 24 hours. The commission has not given a more exact completion figure.
Who Is On the Ballot
Six candidates are on the ballot after the Constitutional Court admitted a sixth in late September. They include President José Maria Neves, who is backed by the centre-left PAICV and won in 2021 in the first round with 51.7% of valid votes.
Joana Rosa, a former justice minister, is backed by the conservative Movement for Democracy (MpD), now in opposition. The other four are Gilson Alves, Antero Tavares, Casimiro de Pina and Loisito Tavares de Sousa.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, José Maria Neves was priced at 83.5% to win and Joana Rosa at 4.2% as of 8:55 p.m. ET on 24 October, with about US$33,900 traded. On Kalshi, which is regulated in the US by the CFTC, the party contract gave PAICV 81%, MpD 11% and UCID 5%.
Kalshi also priced a first-round win, with no runoff, at 69%, on a small volume of 3,376 contracts. These are bets, not polls, and both markets are thin.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
How the Vote Works
A candidate needs more than half of valid votes to win in the first round on Sunday, 15 November. If nobody does, the two leaders go to a runoff on Sunday, 29 November.
The official campaign opens on Thursday, 29 October and runs through Friday, 13 November. Our earlier report on early voting for hospital patients and prisoners covers the latest rule change.
What It Means for US Readers
Polls open at 4 a.m. Eastern Time and close at 2 p.m. on 15 November, so the vote runs through the US night and morning. A runoff would add a second vote two weeks later.
Markets favour the incumbent, but no published scientific poll backs that up. Watch the campaign start on 29 October and the commission’s next statement for any change to the schedule.
Our report on the drought plan covers another national issue.
What Is Not Known
No methodologically documented opinion poll with vote-intention figures has been identified. The commission has not published a registered-voter total or a time for the first provisional results.
The market prices are not vote-share forecasts, and Polymarket lists some names that are not on the ballot.
Frequently Asked Questions
When is the Cabo Verde presidential election?
The first round is on Sunday, 15 November 2026. Polls are open from 08:00 to 18:00 local time (UTC−1), which is 4 a.m. to 2 p.m. Eastern Time.
What happens if no candidate wins a majority?
The top two candidates meet in a second round on Sunday, 29 November 2026. That happens if nobody wins more than half of valid votes.
Who is running for president?
Six candidates are on the ballot, including incumbent José Maria Neves and former Justice Minister Joana Rosa. The others are Gilson Alves, Antero Tavares, Casimiro de Pina and Loisito Tavares de Sousa.
When does the official campaign start?
The campaign opens on Thursday, 29 October 2026 and runs through Friday, 13 November. Voting follows on Sunday, 15 November.
What do prediction markets say about the race?
Polymarket priced Neves at 83.5% and Rosa at 4.2% as of 8:55 p.m. ET on 24 October 2026, with about US$33,900 traded. These are bets, not polls.
Sources: National Elections Commission (cne.cv), e-Global, A Nação, Expresso das Ilhas, Polymarket and Kalshi market pages, read 24–25 October 2026.
Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error
Free · Any country in the world · Prediction markets
Want prediction market reports on your country?
Pick any country in the world. Your report arrives the moment you confirm, then every Sunday: what the markets say about elections, currencies and policy there, with volumes and plain-English explanations.