Israeli attacks continue to devastate parts of southern Lebanon, with reports that Israel is planning to deepen its invasion adding to uncertainty and leaving development and reconstruction efforts on hold.
Airstrikes, shelling and demolitions have continued across Lebanon despite a US-sponsored framework agreement signed by Lebanon and Israel in June, which has done little to halt Israel's attacks.
Talks are due to resume in Florida on 20 October, although expectations of a breakthrough remain low.
Earlier this week, Lebanon's Health Ministry said Israeli attacks over the past three years had killed 8,596 people and wounded 30,660, many of them civilians.
A New York Times investigation earlier this week found that Israeli forces had razed 48 of the roughly 60 towns and villages under their occupation in southern Lebanon since the April ceasefire agreement, destroying homes, schools, mosques and roads.
The destruction has been concentrated in predominantly Shia Muslim communities, from which Hezbollah draws much of its support, fuelling fears that Israel is pursuing a scorched-earth campaign aimed at permanently depopulating large parts of southern Lebanon.
On Wednesday night, Israeli forces set fire to and destroyed a school in Kfar Tebnit, near Nabatieh. An Israeli airstrike on the village of Haddatha in the Bint Jbeil district also wounded two people, including a four-year-old child.
Invasion could reach Zahrani
For months, Israeli operations have focused on the Nabatieh district, which lies north of the Litani River. The seizure of strategic sites such as Beaufort Castle, Ali al-Taher Ridge and other highlands by Israeli troops this year gives them a vantage point overlooking Nabatieh, raising concerns that they could attempt to storm the city in the event of another full-scale Israeli offensive.
Lebanese news site Almodon recently reported that Israel intends to expand its occupation of southern Lebanon as far as the Zahrani River, taking control of the Zahrani oil refinery. The move would form part of what the report described as Tel Aviv's efforts to exert further pressure on Lebanon, militarily, politically and economically.
According to Asharq al-Awsat newspaper, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun received US assurances this week that Israel would not be given the green light to expand its operations into areas of the south it does not already occupy. The assurances were reportedly conditional on Lebanon ensuring that no pretexts were provided for further Israeli action, referring to Hezbollah attacks.
On Wednesday, Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz threatened to seize more territory in southern Lebanon and forcibly displace residents of Beirut's southern suburbs if Tehran-backed Hezbollah joined Iran in a future attack on Israel.
Hezbollah is reportedly replenishing its depleted weapons stockpile and reorganising its ranks in the south in preparation for another full-scale Israeli offensive. The group has been significantly weakened by years of Israeli attacks and fighting but has insisted it will not disarm before Israel ends its occupation of Lebanese territory.
Gulf state planning 'major project'
Last month, Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam said the estimated total cost of Israel's wars on Lebanon could exceed $27 billion, adding that the state could not bear the cost of reconstructing areas devastated by Israeli attacks.
He has nevertheless pledged to launch projects in the south to facilitate the return of residents, including by restoring electricity, water and internet services.
During a meeting earlier this week with MPs representing southern constituencies from Hezbollah and the Shia Amal Movement, Salam said around $70 million had been earmarked for projects in the south by the end of the year. Their implementation would depend on the security situation amid continuing Israeli attacks.
Lebanese newspaper Annahar reported on Wednesday that an unnamed Gulf state was planning a major development project in southern Lebanon, with its launch conditional on Israel withdrawing from occupied areas, stability returning to the region and displaced residents going back to their homes.
The newspaper said the state's ambassador had held discreet talks with several Lebanese ministers about the initiative, and that Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri had also been briefed.
The Gulf state is also working with other countries in the region, in coordination with Salam's government, to support residents of southern Lebanon whose homes have been destroyed or damaged by Israeli attacks.