Canada's international student cap sets a total target of 408,000 study permits issued in 2026. That breaks down into 253,000 study permit extensions and an expected 155,000 new arrivals, or commencements. However, the arrivals data that we can see so far suggests that the total for the year could come in considerably below that target.
For the calendar year-to-date through July 2026, Canada had welcomed a total of 28,205 new student arrivals. This represents roughly 18% of the year's overall target, whereas 40%-50% of the total annual arrivals for both 2024 and 2025 had arrived by the end of July in each of those years.
Not surprisingly, arrivals through those first seven months of 2026 are considerably off the pace from recent years, down roughly -36% from the same period in 2025 and -80% from 2024.
If the arrivals patterns of those two most recent years are any indication, that weak performance through July could mean that Canada will welcome less than 100,000 new students this year. A key factor will be the actual numbers for August and September, as those two months alone accounted for 40% (or more) of arrivals in 2024 and 2025. However, barring some significant change in that historical pattern, it appears likely that total arrivals for the year will not exceed 90,000 students.
Within that overall trend, there are some important shifts to observe this year.
- Study permit approval rates appear to be rising. The average visa approval rate for new study permits rose to 47% for the period January to May 2026. That is up from the 36% approval rate for the same period in 2025.
- The balance of enrolment is shifting toward universities. In 2023, 54% of Canada's foreign students were enrolled in colleges, with 44% in universities. As 2026 unfolds, that proportion is shifting with some estimates putting the university share as high as 57%.
- The student mix is further shifting to a greater proportion of graduate students. A recent statement from Immigration, Refugees, and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) says that the department has adopted "A greater focus on graduate students," and that. "In 2026, from January to June, master’s and doctoral students accounted for 21% of new study permits, up from 12% in 2025." IRCC attributes that growth in part to streamlined pathways for students pursuing advanced degrees: "To attract more students at the master’s and PhD levels, we introduced two-week processing for new PhD students and exempted master’s and doctoral students from the [enrolment cap]."
The Atlantic signal
The just-released Association of Atlantic Universities’ (AAU) 2026–27 Survey of Preliminary Enrolments provides some of the earliest data on actual foreign enrolment in Canada for the 2026/27 academic year.
Those early indicators, however, are not encouraging. The AAU reports that, as of 1 October 2026, there are 3,020 fewer international students at Atlantic Canadian universities compared to the year before. That amounts to a -18% decline year-over-year and a nearly -48% decrease from 2024.
That downward trajectory was triggered by more restrictive federal government policies first introduced in January 2024. "These measures included imposing caps on enrolment, doubling the required proof of funds, and tightening work restrictions - international student enrolments across Atlantic universities have fallen well below the federal government’s own target of 35%," notes the AAU.
“The federal government made a national decision that has disproportionately hurt Atlantic Canada,” adds Dr Andrew Hakin, Chair of the AAU and President of St. Francis Xavier University.
The AAU's observations are backed by a report from the Auditor General of Canada released earlier this year. It found that Canada's less-populated provinces, including those in Atlantic Canada, were much more severely affected by federal policy than the government intended. Those smaller provinces were disadvantaged in large part because of the design of Canada's cap on international enrolments. Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) allocated study permits based on each province’s population, but it did not factor in that smaller provinces experience lower approval rates than others.
“The department’s approach resulted in smaller provinces experiencing two compounding challenges: limited allocation spaces and lower study permit approval rates. This was made worse by decreasing application volumes," says the Auditor General's report. "This finding matters because the Immigration and Refugee Protection Act mandates Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada not only to manage immigration, but also to ensure its benefits are shared across Canada. The department also has a statutory obligation to consult provinces on immigration planning and consider regional economic priorities.”
“Atlantic Canada’s universities continue to communicate our serious concerns about federal policies affecting international students to Canada’s Minister of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship, Atlantic Canadian MPs and Senators,” adds Dr Hakin. “We appreciate the Minister’s ongoing acknowledgment that international students are an important talent pipeline and central to Atlantic Canada’s future population, economic growth, and social and cultural development. We hope to see this reflected in policy changes that recognize the unique realities of Atlantic Canada.”
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