The Indianapolis Colts are heading into Week 6 looking to put last Sunday's loss to Pittsburgh behind them and get back in the win column. A matchup with the Tennessee Titans presents an opportunity to do just that, with Indianapolis entering as the clear favorite against its division rival.
But divisional games rarely follow a predictable script, and the Colts have plenty to prove as they look to build on their iffy start to the season. With another week of football ahead, here are four bold predictions for Sunday's matchup in Nashville.
Red Zone Struggles Will Continue
Through the first five games, the Colts red zone offense has been ultra-reliable. Indianapolis ranks eighth in the NFL in red zone scoring percentage, finding the end zone 66.7% of the time.
But that efficiency took a hit in Pittsburgh.The Colts drove into the red zone on three separate occasions, but only found the end zone once.
I expect those struggles to continue, despite facing a Tennessee defense that’s allowing red zone touchdowns at a 62.5% clip. The Steelers exposed the blueprint the Colts have been using by loading the defensive front with physical run stuffers and keeping gains to a minimum against the run.
With the Colts’ mangled wide receiver core contributing to issues in the passing game, Indianapolis could struggle to find answers when its rushing attack is bottled up. Defenses can afford to crowd the box and force Daniel Jones to beat them through the air, an especially difficult task with limited options on the perimeter.
The Titans have a stud cornerback in Alontae Taylor, who can easily eliminate a pass catcher in the red zone. If the rest of the secondary does its job, and the run defense holds strong in short yardage, then it could be another long day for the Colts offense.
Titans Double Scoring Average, Amplifying Questions About Colts’ Defense
The Titans rank dead last in the NFL in points scored per game (11.6). The Colts defense is towards the bottom of the league in points allowed per game with 27.6, sixth-most in the NFL.
The Colts defensive issues go deep, with allowing so many points being a symptom of the overall problem. Indianapolis ranks near the bottom of the league in pass rush pressure rate and has repeatedly surrendered explosive plays, which have made it difficult for the defense to stay off the field.
Tennessee has struggled to generate offense all season, but the Colts have shown enough vulnerability to give the Titans an opportunity to find success. I expect Tennessee to take advantage of those weaknesses and score at least 23 points, doubling its season average and raising further concerns about Indianapolis' ability to get stops against even the league's least productive offenses.
And as a result, change could be on the horizon.
Pass Rush Remains Silent
The Colts' pass rush has been one of the defense's biggest weaknesses through five games. Indianapolis ranks last in the NFL with a 24% pressure rate, struggling to consistently disrupt opposing quarterbacks without relying on coverage or mistakes from the offense.
Tennessee presents an opportunity to change that narrative after allowing four sacks against Houston last week. However, I expect Indianapolis to continue struggling to generate consistent pressure, even against a vulnerable offensive line. Arden Key is on injured reserve for at least three more weeks, and the pass rush is lacking reliable production.
Without consistent pressure, the Colts will have to rely on their secondary to hold up in coverage for extended periods, giving Cam Ward more opportunities to find open receivers. If Indianapolis can't capitalize on Tennessee's protection issues, it will be another frustrating afternoon for a defense searching for answers.
Colts Win, But Unconvincingly
The Colts will have an opportunity to get back on track against a winless Titans team that has struggled to generate offense. However, Indianapolis cannot afford to mistake a favorable matchup for a sign that its problems have been solved. The 34-22 loss to Pittsburgh exposed recurring issues with tackling, explosive plays allowed and red-zone execution that contributed to the team's struggles.
Indianapolis has yet to demonstrate that it can consistently pair its offensive production with dependable defensive play. The Colts can move the ball and put points on the board, but defensive breakdowns have made it difficult to control games when the offense fails to deliver on every possession. Tennessee offers a chance to correct that imbalance, but the Colts will need to show greater discipline and execution on defense to do so.
I expect Indianapolis to come away with a win, but not necessarily the kind of complete performance that quiets concerns about the team's ability to compete with the AFC's better teams. Beating Tennessee is important for the standings. Showing tangible improvement in the areas that cost them against Pittsburgh would be far more meaningful for the Colts' long-term outlook.
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