If the pollsters are any indication, the Conservatives are heading for a majority government in B.C. as residents head to the polls tomorrow.
If the Conservative Party is knockin’ on a majority government’s door, then the BC NDP is at the gates of heaven.
The latest B.C. poll comes from Ipsos, which shows that the Conservatives lead the BC NDP 44 per cent to 39 per cent, with the BC Greens at 13 per cent.
Over the last couple of weeks, virtually every poll has shown the Conservatives in the lead to varying degrees, with the exception of the Angus Reid poll, which suggested a “statistical tie” between the two parties.
Ipsos suggests 18 per cent of British Columbians are undecided, which could swing the vote in either direction, adding to the tension and suspense of the final decision for who will form government in B.C.
Ipsos broke down results by various demographics, including showing that the Conservatives lead by 13 points among 35 to 54-year-olds, and by 10 points among 18- to 34-year-olds.
For folks 55 years of age and older, the BC NDP have a lead of 45 per cent to 42 per cent for the Conservatives.
Ipsos also looked at regional breakdowns, showing that the contest is the closest in Metro Vancouver, with the Conservatives leading the BC NDP.
Vancouver Island seems to be a major stronghold for the BC NDP, where Ipsos is showing them with a “substantial” 14-point lead (46 per cent to 32 per cent).
The Conservatives have a more significant lead in the B.C. Interior, leading 53 per cent to 31 per cent.
Voter certainty is all over the place for this election, and Ipsos points out that 15 per cent with a party preference still say there’s a “good chance” they’ll change their mind and vote for another party’s candidate.
When it comes to how B.C. voters are judging the leaders of each party, Ipsos finds more interesting results.
For BC NDP leader David Eby, views of him have remained stable. He’s ending his campaign with slightly more unfavourable (40 per cent) than favourable (35 per cent) impressions.
For Conservative leader Lorne Doerkson, views of him are just as favourable (31 per cent) as unfavourable (33 per cent).
Views on BC Greens leader Emily Lowan have improved over the campaign. She now has more favourable (30 per cent) than unfavourable (18 per cent) impressions, making her the most liked of all the leaders.
Despite the results skewing heavily in the favour of the Conservatives, most voters still believe that Eby would make the best leader for B.C., though sentiments on that front are falling.
Ipsos conducted its survey between Oct. 20 and Oct. 22 in partnership with Global BC. It surveyed 1,260 B.C. residents online. The poll is accurate within +/- 3.3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
You can find the full results on the Ipsos website.
Earlier this week, 338Canada also projected a strong majority for the Conservatives, predicting they’d win a whopping 57 seats.