You don’t need a telescope to spot the biggest NFL betting trends storyline of the 2026 season. Just ask an underdog bettor how things are going, and their ear-to-ear grin will say it all.
Put aside a trio of point-spread pushes, and underdogs are cashing at a 56.7% rate (51-39-3 ATS) for the season, including 62% since Week 3 (36-22-3 ATS). In Week 6 alone, underdogs went 9-5 ATS with six outright victories.
And the bigger the ’dogs, the louder the bark. Teams catching six points or more are just 9-21 between the lines but 19-8-3 on the betting scoreboard (70.4%).
Then there are the prime-time NFL betting trends that defy logic: Under the lights, underdogs are 12-7 SU and 15-4 ATS overall, including 10-2 SU and 11-1 ATS since Week 3.
Given these numbers, it’s not surprising that there are strong “buy” signs on every underdog in my NFL betting trends breakdown of four marquee matchups for Week 7. Not the least of which is an underdog that is unbeaten on the season, nearly unbeatable when catching points and playing in prime time.
Bengals at Ravens (-2.5, 50.5)
Moneyline: Bengals +125/Ravens -150
• Cincinnati entered its Week 6 bye off a 31-24 victory at Miami, pushing as a seven-point road favorite.
The Bengals had previously suffered consecutive upset losses to the Steelers on the road (30-27) and Jaguars at home (22-17). They haven’t covered the spread since routing the Texans 20-6 as a 3-point underdog in Week 2.
With that win in Houston, Cincinnati improved to 4-1 ATS in its last five when catching points.
• With starting quarterback Lamar Jackson sidelined for a second straight game, the Ravens went to Cleveland last week as a three-point road favorite and blew a 10-0 second-half lead, losing 13-10 on a final-play field goal.
Since pummeling the Colts 41-23 as a three-point road favorite in Week 1, Baltimore is 1-4 ATS (0-4 ATS as a favorite).
In fact, the Ravens come into this contest looking to reverse this negative NFL betting trend: Since Week 11 of 2025, they’re 2-9 ATS as a favorite with five outright losses.
Baltimore has won five of six meetings against the Bengals since the start of the 2023 season (4-2 ATS).
Also, in games when Jackson and Joe Burrow both start, the Ravens are 7-2 SU and 5-4 ATS overall. However, Jackson is just 4-2 SU and 2-4 ATS versus Burrow in Baltimore (all as a favorite).
• Both of last year’s Bengals-Ravens meetings fell short of the total. Prior to that, though, the over had cashed in seven of eight clashes, with six games topping 50 combined points.
The last time the under hit in three straight games in this rivalry? You have to go back to late 2016/early 2017, a stretch of 17 consecutive meetings.
Rams (-4.5, 48.5) at Raiders
Moneyline: Rams -210/Raiders +175
• Los Angeles followed a 37-34 overtime home loss to Buffalo in the Week 5 Monday Night Football game with a stunning 18-16 loss to the Cardinals as a 12.5-point home favorite. It was the biggest upset of the NFL season.
The Rams (2-4 SU and ATS) haven’t endured a three-game losing skid since Weeks 7-9 of 2023.
L.A.’s last 0-3 ATS slide was from Weeks 4-7 of 2024 (including a Week 6 bye). The final non-cover of that stretch was a 20-15 home win over the Raiders as a seven-point favorite.
• Since a surprising 4-0 start, Las Vegas has now dropped three in a row, the latest a 33-30 Week 6 home loss to Buffalo.
However, the Raiders scored a late touchdown to cover the 5.5-point spread and are now an NFL-best 5-1 ATS. Going back to last season, Las Vegas sports these positive NFL betting trends: 8-3 ATS overall, 5-1 ATS at home and 7-3 ATS as an underdog.
• The Rams came into this season having won and covered seven straight games against AFC opponents. However, they’ve come up empty against the AFC this year, having preceded the overtime loss to Buffalo with a 30-26 setback at Denver.
Meanwhile, Las Vegas went 0-5 SU/ATS against the NFC in 2025. That slide ended in Week 3 with a 35-27 upset win at New Orleans as a four-point underdog.
• Prior to covering the spread in their 2024 loss at Los Angeles, the Raiders had been 0-6 ATS against the Rams this century.
On the bright side for Las Vegas, underdogs of four-plus points this season are 25-14-3 ATS.
• Nine of the Rams’ 10 true road games since the start of last year have cleared the closing total, including the last seven in a row. Eight of those contests eclipsed 50 points.
Also, the Raiders and their opponents have hurdled 50 combined points in four straight overall, and the over is on a 6-3 roll at Allegiant Stadium.
Packers at Lions (-3, 53.5)
Moneyline: Packers +145/Lions -175
• The Packers won and covered their third consecutive game in Week 6, pounding the Cowboys 23-13 as a 1.5-point home underdog on Sunday Night Football.
Green Bay has surrendered a total of 34 points during its winning streak — one fewer than it allowed in a 35-14 home loss to Atlanta in Week 3.
Prior to their current heater, the Packers had been mired in slumps of 1-6 on the field and 3-13-2 ATS. They have gone 25 consecutive games since their last 3-0 ATS win streak.
• Detroit cruised into its Week 6 bye with a 45-21 beatdown of the Cardinals as a five-point road favorite. It was the team’s first spread cover of 2026 after an 0-4-1 ATS start.
The Lions, who have alternated wins and losses this season, haven’t won back-to-back games since they followed a 27-13 at Green Bay in last year’s opener with a four-game winning streak.
• Despite its blowout of Arizona, Detroit remains mired in point-spread slumps of 4-11-1 overall, 1-5-1 at home, 3-7-1 as a favorite and 1-3 versus the NFC North.
Also, the Lions were swept by Green Bay last season and have failed to cover in three straight meetings and four of the last five.
Another NFL betting trend working against Detroit in this rivalry: The underdog is on a 10-5 ATS run, including six outright victories.
• The over has hit in all five Lions games this season. Combined points in those contests: 61, 72, 55, 58 and 66.
Furthermore, the over is 24-11-1 in Detroit’s last 35 overall, including 14-4 at Ford Field (one playoff game included).
During this span, the Lions and their opponents have combined for more than 53 points a whopping 22 times overall and 11 times at home.
Chiefs at Seahawks (-2.5, 42.5)
Moneyline: Chiefs +120/Seahawks -145
• Kansas City is off to a 5-0 start for the second time in the last three seasons, but just the third time in the Patrick Mahomes era (since 2018).
Last week, the Chiefs emerged from their bye and smothered the winless Chargers 22-6, easily cashing as a 7.5-point home favorite. Despite its unblemished record on the field, K.C. has alternated ATS wins and losses this season.
• Since beginning the season with consecutive wins over the Patriots at home and Cardinals on the road, Seattle has dropped three of four by a total of eight points.
Fresh off a 32-29 home loss to San Francisco, the Seahawks traveled to Denver in Week 6 and fell 17-14 in overtime on Thursday Night Football.
The defending Super Bowl champs are looking to avoid their first three-game SU skid since Weeks 4-6 of 2024 (a span of 34 contests). Seattle hasn’t had an 0-4 ATS drought since failing to cover in its final four games in 2024.
• With the Chiefs catching points for the first time in 2026, this NFL betting trend is in play: With Mahomes under center, the Chiefs are 12-4 SU and 12-3-1 ATS as an underdog (including four postseason games).
Also, since the 2024 season kicked off, Mahomes and the Chiefs have only lost twice in 10 games against the NFC — both were to the Eagles (Week 2 of 2025 and in Super Bowl 59 the previous year).
• As with the point spread, the total has alternated in each of Kansas City’s first five games, but the under has hit in nine of the Chiefs’ last 12 true road outings. Eight of the nine that stayed low featured fewer than 42 points.
Conversely, including two playoff contests, the over is 9-3 in Seattle’s last dozen home games. All nine topped 45 total points.