Forget 1.5°C: The world is now on track for 2.8°C of global warming by 2100, UN warns - and the impacts are going to be 'disastrous'

The chance to keep global warming below the 1.5°C threshold has now gone, the UN has revealed. 

In a new report, titled 'Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return', the UN warns that under current government policies, warming will reach 2.8°C by the end of the century. 

Worryingly, it says that this number is 'widely considered disastrous'. 

'We've spent decades postponing cuts to emissions and now we're facing the consequences,' said Anne Olhoff, the Director of the UNEP–Copenhagen Climate Centre. 

'The world can still attain the goals of the Paris Agreement but we must work hard to not only meet but surpass our most ambitious climate targets. 

'The longer we wait, the larger the risk that we jeopardize the temperature goal.' 

The 1.5°C global warming limit was introduced as part of the Paris Agreement on 12 December 2015.

It meant that nations agreed to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre–industrial levels.

However, the new report warns that this warming limit has gone out the window.

In the best case scenario, humanity will limit peak warming to 1.7–1.8°C by around the middle of the century, before bringing temperatures back down to or below 1.5°C.

Achieving this goal won't be easy, the UN says.

According to the latest calculations, for this situation to play out, we'll need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 18 per cent by 2030, 45 per cent by 2035 and 69 per cent by 2040.

We'll also have to remove vast quantities of carbon dioxide from the air – around 320 gigatonnes by the end of the century.

'This option is fraught with uncertainty,' the UN explained. 

'Carbon dioxide removal comes with a host of socioeconomic and technological challenges, including the use of expensive and unproven technology.

'And while carbon dioxide removal is an important tool, it should never be considered a substitute for emissions reductions, the report says. 

'There are limits to how much carbon can be stored, which again points to an urgent need for fast and deep emission cuts to minimize peak temperatures.'

However, if nothing changes, we can expect global temperatures to rise by a whopping 2.8°C by the end of the century.

The UN added: 'There is also a 10 per cent chance that warming will exceed 3.4°C.' 

Based on the findings, experts are calling on governments around the world to take urgent action to cut emissions. 

Ruth Fuller, WWF's Chief Climate Advisor said: 'With COP 31 just days away, this report provides further proof that we are entering ever more dangerous territory. 

'Overshoot of 1.5 needs to be as short and as small as possible. 

'The hotter we get the greater the risks of accelerating tipping points in natural systems, with truly devastating consequences for people and nature.

'We can reduce the risk but only if we act decisively and urgently. 

'At COP 31 countries must seize the opportunity to urgently phase out fossil fuels, invest in climate finance, scale up renewables, accelerate adaptation, restore ecosystems and end deforestation.'

Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics, added: 'Every fraction of a degree over 1.5°C, every additional year of overshoot guarantees more climate impacts and bigger risks. 

'Recent research shows that for every 0.1 degree warming, another 140 million people are exposed to dangerous heat.

'The Greenland ice sheet is at risk of irreversible collapse even now.

'Do the governments and fossil fuel producers of the world really want seven metres of sea level rise and the demise of many entire island countries as their legacy?'