Brazil's Lula, Flavio Bolsonaro tied ahead of runoff vote

There are only a few days left until Brazil's runoff election on October 25, with neither left-wing incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva nor right-wing populist Flavio Bolsonaro a clear favorite.

While three polls from last week showed a razor-thin lead for Bolsonaro, the PoderData polling institute has now projected 50% voter backing for each candidate.

This election could end up as close as the one held in 2022, when Lula narrowly beat Flavio Bolsonaro's father, Jair Messias Bolsonaro, with just 50.9% of the vote. Jair Bolsonaro, incidentally, was later jailed for attempting a coup to hold onto power.

His son, Flavio, surprisingly won the first round of voting on October 4 by securing 47% of the vote. Bolsonaro's right-wing bloc also won many additional seats in Congress, primarily at the expense of Brazil's centrist parties. And in the week following the first round of voting, polls showed Bolsonaro commanding a lead of up to six percentage points.

Yet last week, Lula managed to gain momentum through nationwide mass rallies and his dynamic social media presence. Bolsonaro, in contrast, had scaled back street campaigning in light of his strong poll numbers.

That turned out to be a mistake. Now he, too, is once more mobilizing supporters to stage major rallies across Brazil as the country readies for the runoff.

A polarized nation

The rivalry between Lula's left-wing camp and Bolsonaro's far-right bloc has shaped Brazilian politics for the past decade.

Jair Bolsonaro gained nationwide recognition during the 2016 impeachment proceedings against Lula's political protegee, then-President Dilma Rousseff. He went on to win the 2018 presidential election while Lula was serving a prison sentence on corruption charges.

But when Lula's conviction was overturned, the former trade union leader staged a political comeback in 2022.

This polarization is responsible for the disappearance of centrist parties and a political alternative, or "third way," said political scientist Marco Aurelio Nogueira.

"The divide between Lula and Bolsonarism has paralyzed Brazilian politics, and anything that didn't belong to one pole or the other has disappeared," Nogueira told DW. This polarization is fueled by social media, the expert added, saying that "platforms' algorithms thrive on conflict and reward excitement."

Flavio Bolsonaro a toned-down version of his father

Nogueira said Flavio Bolsonaro's calm demeanor could explain why he has a realistic chance of defeating Lula, unlike his father in 2022.

"Jair Messias Bolsonaro was a crude, rhetorically aggressive figure," said Nogueira. "Flavio Bolsonaro, on the other hand, casts himself as more moderate and gives Bolsonarism a more youthful image. He communicates skillfully, posts well-produced videos, and addresses workers' issues, such as the introduction of the five-day workweek."

Lula's recent promise to shorten workweek hours has lent momentum to his campaign. Alarmed by Lula's rising poll numbers, Bolsonaro gave up his opposition to the move and voted in favor of the five-day workweek.

Bolsonaro is now taking a less radical stance on fiscal policy, too. Although he had announced drastic budget cuts before the first round of voting, modeled on the policies of his libertarian Argentine ally Javier Milei, he now intends to continue Lula's social programs. That said, Bolsonaro has not presented a plan for how he intends to reduce Brazil's high public debt.

Banco Master corruption scandal shapes race

The election campaign has been overshadowed by a massive corruption scandal surrounding the insolvent financial institution Banco Master. Daniel Vorcaro, the bank's former owner, is under investigation for fraud, money laundering and corruption.

Vorcaro is accused of having bribed decision-makers in the world of politics, finance and the judiciary. Several Supreme Court justices are said to be involved in the scandal, which involved dubious sex parties and millions in reported payouts. Judges from both the Lula camp and some appointed by Jair Bolsonaro are said to be tied up in the scandal.

Flavio Bolsonaro is alleged to have accepted goods and services from Vorcaro, including a €10 million donation for a film about his father's life. Yet Lula has not been able to capitalize on his rival's alleged failings. After all, his very own son is implicated in another corruption scandal. Moreover, Bolsonaro has repeatedly drawn attention to Lula's 2017 conviction for corruption, even though it was later overturned by the Supreme Court.

Friday's debate key to reaching voters

Political scientist Nogueira believes the mudslinging between both candidates over who is more corrupt has left voters jaded.

"There are constant reports about scandals and mutual accusations from all sides," said Nogueira. "As a result, the effect is essentially canceled out in the election campaign. The average voter tunes out and no longer attaches much importance to these accusations when making a voting decision."

Both candidates held their first live television debate on Sunday. On Friday, two days before the runoff election, they will face off once more on Brazil's largest broadcaster, Globo. The debate will likely have a significant influence on the October 25 vote.

Experts believe the key for both candidates will be to not be rattled by provocations from the other side. Concrete policies, in turn, will only play a minor role in the debate.

This article was originally written in German.