NIGERIA · ENERGY MARKETS
Key Facts
—Valuation Renaissance Capital Africa now values the Dangote refinery at ₦700.41 a share (about US$0.52), up 13.1% from ₦619.47 and 33.4% above the ₦525 IPO price (about US$0.39).
—Results For the first nine months of 2026 the refinery reported revenue of about US$22.5 billion and net profit of about US$4.73 billion, against a loss of US$117.2 million a year earlier.
—IPO The offer of 4.1 billion shares at ₦525, about ₦2.15 trillion (US$1.6 billion), closes on 27 October 2026 after the regulator approved an extension.
—Rate used Dollar figures use about ₦1,335 per US$, the rate implied by Renaissance Capital’s own conversion.
—Interest The offer has drawn subscriptions from more than 90 countries, including 51 of Africa’s 54 nations.
Renaissance Capital Africa, an investment research firm, raised its valuation of the Dangote refinery to ₦700.41 a share (about US$0.52). That is 33.4% above the ₦525 offer price of the refinery’s initial public offering (IPO), which closes on 27 October.
For US investors, the valuation tests whether the Dangote refinery can win capital from abroad as Nigeria’s naira swings against the dollar. The refinery in Lekki, near Lagos, is owned mainly by Nigerian billionaire Aliko Dangote.
Valuation Upgrade Follows Strong Results
Renaissance Capital Africa put the new figure 13.1% above its earlier ₦619.47 (about US$0.46) after reading the refinery’s preliminary nine-month results, according to Nairametrics. The update came in a research note dated 16 October and was reported on 17 October.
The firm said revenue, EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) and net profit all beat its forecasts. It credited stronger refining margins and better operating performance.
Nine-Month Numbers
For the nine months to 30 September, the refinery reported revenue of about US$22.5 billion, up from US$9.2 billion a year earlier. Net profit was about US$4.73 billion, against a loss of US$117.2 million.
EBITDA reached about US$5.5 billion, up from US$627.6 million, and operating cash flow was about US$3.68 billion. The company swung from net debt of US$1.73 billion to net cash of US$650.8 million, according to the preliminary figures.
IPO Terms and Scenarios
The offer sells 4.1 billion new shares at ₦525 each, a base size of about ₦2.15 trillion (US$1.6 billion). Subscriptions opened on 14 September, and the 27 October closing date follows an extension approved by the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Renaissance Capital Africa’s model assumes a second processing line. If it starts in 2029 the value rises to ₦731.80 a share, and if it slips to 2031 it falls to ₦671.83.
The bank also estimates that each 1% move in the naira changes the per-share value by about ₦7. These are model scenarios, not commitments by the company or the government.
Rival Analysts See Less
GTI Research put the fair value at ₦493 a share in September, below the offer price, citing crude supply, currency mismatch and expansion risks. Renaissance Capital Africa itself says its ₦700.41 is a discounted cash flow estimate, not a guaranteed market price.
The two views differ on forecasts, and neither bank has published enough model detail to show why. We covered the offer’s reach in Dangote Refinery IPO Draws 90 Countries and the earnings in Dangote Refinery Posts US$4.7B Profit.
What It Means for US Readers
At ₦700.41 a share, Renaissance Capital Africa puts the equity value at about US$63 billion before new shares. Counting the IPO proceeds, its adjusted figure is ₦694.28 a share, 32.2% above the offer price.
Aliko Dangote holds 87.27% of the existing shares, so his stake would be worth about US$55.1 billion at that price and about US$41.3 billion at the offer price. US investors should note that the refinery is a Nigerian listing priced in naira, so currency swings affect any return.
What Is Not Known
Neither the refinery nor the bank has published production volumes, realised prices or costs below EBITDA. Renaissance Capital Africa says it will revisit its estimates when full accounts appear.
The listing date and the final subscription total are not yet announced. The Nigerian government, the petroleum ministry and the securities regulator have not commented on the valuation.
Sources
Nairametrics: Renaissance Capital valuation · Nairametrics: nine-month results · Nairametrics: IPO extension · Premium Times · Zawya · Billionaires Africa
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the new valuation of the Dangote refinery?
Renaissance Capital Africa values it at ₦700.41 a share (about US$0.52), up from ₦619.47. That is 33.4% above the ₦525 IPO price.
Why did Renaissance Capital Africa raise its value?
The refinery’s nine-month revenue, EBITDA and net profit beat the bank’s forecasts. The bank credited stronger refining margins.
When does the Dangote refinery IPO close?
The offer closes on 27 October 2026 after an extension approved by the regulator. It covers 4.1 billion new shares at ₦525 each.
Is ₦700.41 a market price?
No, it is a model-based estimate from one research firm. Another firm, GTI Research, put fair value at ₦493 in September.