- IDC's latest figures show that PC shipments are down 20% year-on-year
- TrendForce predicts that next year is going to see further drops in PC sales and possible price hikes, which aligns with IDC's thinking
- If you're looking for a laptop, it might be a good idea to pull the trigger sooner rather than later – maybe during Black Friday
PC shipments have plunged dramatically, with analyst firms predicting that the sales of computers and laptops are set to slump next year as well.
PC Gamer noticed that IDC Research has a new report for Q3 of 2026 showing that global PC shipments are down 20.1% compared to the same quarter last year, dropping from 78.5 million units to 62.7 million.
The reason why is obvious: it's due to the RAM crisis and rising prices across a range of PC components (not just memory).
Another analyst firm, TrendForce, also produced a report (flagged by Wccftech) observing that the rising cost of those components threatens to weaken the demand for notebooks in 2027.
TrendForce claims that: "Global notebook shipments are currently projected to decline by a low-single-digit percentage in 2027."
However, the firm cautions that if RAM and CPU prices stay high (which seems almost inevitable), notebook makers "may be forced to pass more of these costs on to consumers", with high retail prices meaning fewer consumers buy new laptops – potentially pushing the drop in notebook sales to high single digits.
So, we could be looking at a near 10% drop in laptop sales next year, on top of an already gloomy picture and flagging sales for PCs as seen currently.
Analysis: act now or dig in for a lengthy wait
Both IDC and TrendForce observe that part of the problem for 2026 is that those looking at buying a new laptop purchased earlier in the year – due to the (very real) fear of price hikes coming in – meaning there are fewer sales now than there would normally have been. This is why there was a much sharper fall in Q3 compared to IDC's report for Q2 (although PC shipments were still down 3.8% year-on-year in that previous quarter).
Laptop makers are also running thin on components they purchased at lower prices (in anticipation of hikes, just like consumers), and so they are going to face worsening pressures on their profits margins due to rising RAM, storage and CPU costs. (TrendForce doesn't mention GPUs, but these will be a factor for some notebooks, notably gaming laptops, too). If they don't raise prices, laptop manufacturers will be forced to cut corners with specs.
TrendForce pulls out an interesting stat on the current state of play with the cost of building a laptop these days, namely that in a typical mid-to-upper-range ($900) notebook, 68% of the bill of materials (cost of the raw components) is taken up by the CPU, RAM and SSD. In other words, those core components now comprise two-thirds of the cost of the laptop.
IDC also predicts gloom for next year, or certainly the first half of 2027 anyway, noting that: "[PC] prices will remain elevated. With macro conditions worsening, the risk is that the outlook for the next few quarters gets worse before it gets better."
The only brighter spot here is that IDC says that with retailers worrying about "carrying too much inventory into a market where high prices are suppressing demand", we may see "promotions and some short-term relief for consumers" – meaning some possibly tempting Black Friday deals. Although the analyst firm makes it clear that pricing won't be "anywhere near what it was a year ago."
There will likely be some bargains to be had – we've seen some recently with Prime Day, and elsewhere for that matter – and if you are in the market for a laptop, it's looking like the smart move is to act on a decent deal if you see one for the type of notebook you're after.
Almost every prediction about the RAM crisis these days is negative, with a steadily growing weight of pessimistic sentiment, so unless a lot of analysts and industry pundits or insiders have got things very wrong, it's not a good idea to be waiting until next year to buy new hardware. Grab it now or hold out for the longer-term seems to be the right approach, certainly for laptops or PCs, and I'd say graphics cards, too.