25,000 Drivers Lost: US-Mexico Border Crisis Explained

Cross-border freight capacity is facing unprecedented challenges. With 25,000 Mexican driver visas revoked, and significant tender rejections at both the US-Mexico and US-Canada borders, rates are skyrocketing. Learn why these constraints are expected to continue well into 2027 and how it impacts your supply chain.

U.S. authorities have revoked visas for roughly 25,000 Mexican truck drivers, slashing the pool of qualified operators able to haul cross-border loads and sending rejection rates and spot rates sharply higher on key southbound lanes — a supply-side squeeze that FreightWaves data show is likely to persist well into 2027.

The capacity crunch is most acute at El Paso, where tender rejections peaked at roughly 24-25% in early July and still sit near 20%, according to FreightWaves SONAR. San Diego/Otay Mesa follows at about 10% rejections, up from 3.9% a year ago, while Laredo stands near 7% after briefly touching a low of 6.07% on Oct. 3 before rebounding to 7.78% by Oct. 10. The national tender rejection rate moved from 5.7% to 13.8% over the same period, underscoring that the border markets are tracking a broader tightening but have experienced outsized supply pressure.

“What is driving this is Mexico — there is not so much increased demand, but there’s certainly, whether short-term or whether it will be longer-term, we’re seeing a lot of reports of driver shortages,” said Julie Van de Kamp, who presented the SONAR analysis on the Oct. 13 broadcast.

“For that Mexican border, a lot of this revolves around lack of driver availability and visa revocations.” — Julie Van de Kamp

Spot rates on high-volume Mexico-origin corridors reflect the tighter conditions. San Diego-to-Phoenix rates are up 57% year over year, Laredo-to-Dallas is up 43%, Laredo-to-Chicago is up 35%, and El Paso-to-Dallas is up 28%. The Mexico Contract Volume Index shows volume is relatively stable — it recovered from a sharp drop in January but has not surged — meaning the rate pressure stems from fewer available drivers rather than a demand spike. Van de Kamp cautioned that Mexican cross-border volume data carry a reporting lag.

At the Canadian border, the dynamic is different: a freight imbalance rather than a driver shortage. Canadian exports remain firm, but weak northbound return freight makes it difficult for carriers to find backhauls, prompting some to avoid certain U.S. markets or demand premium pay. Rates on select Canada corridors are up 20% to 35% over the past six weeks. Canadian truckload volumes are running above year-ago levels on SONAR’s STVI index, while the Canadian rejection rate has climbed from roughly 4% to about 5.5% year over year and is expected to rise further through year-end. Van de Kamp noted the imbalance is also pushing some contract freight to spot to secure coverage, particularly in refrigerated.

Across both borders, the message for shippers and brokers is consistent: demand is relatively soft, but capacity is constrained and rates are rising. FreightWaves expects the tightness to continue well into 2027, with rejections running 2 to 3 times higher than a year ago on key border lanes.

• US authorities have revoked B-1 visas for approximately 25,000 Mexican truck drivers, creating a driver shortage that is the primary driver of border capacity tightness.
• Spot rates on key U.S.-Mexico lanes are up 28% to 57% year over year, with El Paso tender rejections peaking near 25% and still hovering around 20%.
• Canada’s border crunch stems from a freight imbalance — strong exports but weak northbound return loads — pushing rejection rates to 5.5% and select corridor rates up 20-35% over six weeks.

This Summary is generated thanks to a transcription of the interview, for the full interview please enjoy the video above.