BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Wednesday, 21 October, 4:30 p.m. ET · Source: Folha de S.Paulo, Revista Fórum
Key Facts
- The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest country, elects its president in a runoff on Sunday 25 October.
- What happened More than 100 legal scholars and civil society leaders told the electoral court on Wednesday 21 October that blocking big WhatsApp channels would change the race.
- The draft rule A draft by Justice André Mendonça would block political channels with over 200,000 users from 48 hours before the vote.
- The channels Pro-Lula “Exército do Lula” has over 7 million subscribers and pro-Flávio “Tropa do Flávio” about 2 million.
- Still open Court president Kassio Nunes Marques has reportedly ruled out the block.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 79% chance of winning the 25 October runoff (21 October, 4:16 p.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 79% and Kalshi at 79% (Lula: 22% and 22%), as of 21 October, 4:20 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
More than 100 legal scholars and civil society leaders told the electoral court (TSE) on Wednesday 21 October that blocking big political WhatsApp channels would restrict citizens’ political freedom. Folha de S.Paulo reported the technical note at 1:55 p.m. ET (2:55 p.m. in Brasília), four days before the vote.
Brazil Election Data Room
Runoff poll average: Flávio Bolsonaro 51.1%, Lula 48.9%
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The note arrives in the last week of the Brazil election 2026 runoff between Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s president, and Flávio Bolsonaro, senator for Rio de Janeiro. WhatsApp is Brazil’s main messaging app, so rules for its channels shape how both campaigns reach voters.
What the Legal Experts Told the Court
The note says the draft wrongly treats WhatsApp channels like paid or boosted advertising. Election rules ban boosted propaganda from 48 hours before the vote until 24 hours after.
Boosting, the note explains, is a paid service that widens the reach of content to people who would not normally see it. A channel “has none of these elements: it is free, has no boosted reach and only reaches those who decided to follow it,” the experts wrote, Folha reported.
Blocking channels so close to the vote “restricts the political freedom of citizens and significantly alters the conditions of the electoral contest days before the vote,” the note says. Treating channels like paid boosting, it adds, could stop political communication through ordinary app features.
What the Draft Rule Would Do
Folha revealed that Justice André Mendonça wrote a draft resolution that circulated among the court’s justices. It would block every political WhatsApp channel with more than 200,000 users in the 48 hours before the election.
The draft would hit “Exército do Lula” (Lula’s Army), a channel created by federal deputy André Janones with more than 7 million subscribers. “Tropa do Flávio” (Flávio’s Troop), with about 2 million, would also be covered.
Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign has filed several requests asking the court to take down Janones’ channel, Folha reported. Court president Nunes Marques suspended it once, and it later returned; our earlier report on the draft WhatsApp ban has the details.
Revista Fórum reported that Nunes Marques later ruled out the block. The experts’ note still puts their objections on record before Sunday, as the court also faces a dispute over Meta and equal treatment of the campaigns.
What It Means for US Readers
Brazil is Latin America’s largest economy, and a fight over campaign rules in the final week can feed doubts about how the result is received. Investors in Brazilian stocks and the real will watch whether the court drops the idea for good.
For Americans following the runoff, the case shows how messaging apps have become campaign infrastructure, much as social media is in US races. The question is how much of that a court may restrict days before voting.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, traders give Flávio Bolsonaro a 79.0% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 21.5% (21 October, 4:16 p.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has drawn about US$190.9 million in total bets, and our Brazil election odds page tracks it live.
These are bets, not polls, and they can move fast on news.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 79% · Lula 21.5% (US$191 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 79% · Lula 22%
As of 21 October, 4:20 pm ET (21:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
It is not known whether the court will take any formal step on the draft before Sunday. The full list of signatories was not published in the reports we reviewed.
It is also unclear how many justices back the proposal. The experts addressed their note to the TSE, Folha reported.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did legal experts tell Brazil’s electoral court about WhatsApp?
More than 100 legal scholars and civil society leaders said on Wednesday 21 October that blocking political WhatsApp channels would restrict political freedom. They said it would change the race days before the vote.
What is the draft rule on WhatsApp channels?
A draft by Justice André Mendonça would block political channels with more than 200,000 users from 48 hours before the election. Folha de S.Paulo revealed it.
Which WhatsApp channels would be affected?
Reports name pro-Lula “Exército do Lula,” with over 7 million subscribers, and pro-Flávio “Tropa do Flávio,” with about 2 million.
Why do the experts say channels are not paid boosting?
They say a channel is free, has no boosted reach and only reaches people who chose to follow it. Boosting, by contrast, is a paid service that widens reach.
When is Brazil’s runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. The winner becomes president for a four-year term.
Sources: Folha de S.Paulo, 21 October 2026; Revista Fórum, 21 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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