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Ukraine’s crippling strikes on Russian oil refineries do not appear to have impacted diesel prices in the United States, an analysis by the Institute of the Study of War found.
Diesel fuel in the US remained steadily under $4 a gallon from August 2025 until just after the Trump administration and Israel launched a joint Feb. 28 attack on Iran, prompting the Islamic Republic to shutter the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global shipping route, according to a new chart from the ISW, a policy research organization focused on U.S. national security.
At its peak, when Ukraine struck six oil refineries in a matter of days in November 2025, US diesel prices actually initially dropped slightly, the chart shows.
Prices in the US started rising steeply this February, coinciding with the start of the Iran war, and reached a whopping high of $6.53 per gallon on Sept. 21, according to the data.
The analysis comes amid mounting tensions between President Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky over a US purchase agreement of more than 2.25 million barrels of diesel from Russia to combat skyrocketing gas prices.
Trump then urged Kyiv to stop targeting Moscow’s oil refineries — and blamed the rising costs of fuel on Ukraine’s targeted attacks.
Zelensky warned Thursday that Ukraine would ignore Trump’s demands and resume strikes on Russian refineries, which the Ukrainian leader has long defended as a means to cut into Moscow’s war chest.
He also accused the White House of restricting Kyiv’s access to the key Starshield military satellite network.
“The block is out. We’re done,” Zelensky defiantly told the Financial Times during a London visit.
Three days after agreeing to Trump’s temporary cease-fire on Russian refineries, Ukrainian forces were thrown into a panic Tuesday when its access to Starshield, a secure US military offshoot of SpaceX’s Starlink satellite system, was suddenly shut off.
The outage, which Zelensky blamed on the White House, prevented Ukraine from effectively deploying interceptor drones to fend off incoming Russian attacks, Ukrainian officials told The Post.
Trump lashed out at the Ukrainian leader when he learned that Zelensky planned to resume strikes on energy targets in Russia.
“If you tell me that Zelensky is again shooting at refineries, all he’s doing is making the world oil price higher,” the president told Newsmax.
“I think that’s a disgrace. There’s plenty of other targets.”