Each week, millions of Pakistanis who ride motorcycles or drive rickshaws send a text message and, once the system has checked their identity card, SIM registration and vehicle, receive a token redeemable at a participating petrol station.
That small transaction now sits at the centre of a larger test.
Islamabad has told the International Monetary Fund that the scheme will go, and within weeks it will become clear whether the government of Shehbaz Sharif can keep that promise while oil prices remain painful and the opposition remains noisy.
The relief was always political. IntelliNews reported earlier in October that pump prices had risen by more than half since the Iran conflict erupted, and that the programme followed a threat by Jamaat-e-Islami to march on the capital unless fuel taxes came down.
As a result, Sharif launched it on September 13, when a litre of petrol cost PKR375.82 ($1.35), offering eligible users PKR100 off each litre. The scheme did not stay narrow for long. Within days, the prime minister ordered that two- and three-wheelers registered from January 1, 2006 be admitted, pushing the cut-off five years further back from 2011, as ARY News reported.
His office released a statement carrying a pledge that summed up the mood: “We will not leave the people alone in this difficult time.” By early October, more than 9mn people were drawing on it as Gulf News reported in Pakistan widens PKR100 fuel relief to 20-year-old bikes and rickshaws.
The IMF saw things differently.
Its mission, led by Iva Petrova, spent two weeks in Karachi and Islamabad between September 23 and October 7, and emerged with a staff-level agreement.
According to Dawn, board approval would release roughly $1bn under the Extended Fund Facility and about $210mn under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility, lifting total drawings under both to some $5.7bn. Petrova said the token scheme “should be phased out promptly, given its high cost and broad targeting”.
The local Express Tribune went further, reporting that Islamabad had signed up to ending it, even as officials maintained it would run for its full three months. The IMF wants any future help to be brief, aimed squarely at the poor and paid through existing welfare channels inside the 2026-27 budget, which is meant to deliver an underlying primary surplus of 2% of GDP.
In rupee terms, the sums are not alarming. The programme was given PKR75bn for its three-month life, according to Dialogue Pakistan, and by the time the deal was struck, upwards of 10mn beneficiaries had claimed about PKR10bn.
Back in April, regional media cited a finance ministry official who said the Fund had already capped fuel-related support at below PKR150bn. The worry in Washington is less about this quarter’s bill than about precedent: once an entitlement reaches millions of voters, withdrawing it becomes a political event in its own right.
The revenue side thus adds an awkward twist. The Federal Board of Revenue beat its first-quarter target, as Business Recorder showed, collecting PKR3.0835 trillion ($11.13bn) provisionally against PKR3.053 trillion, even though the Finance Act 2026 scrapped the super tax and trimmed levies on salaries and property deals.
Sales tax did the heavy lifting, while income tax came in PKR47bn below plan and stronger-than-forecast petroleum development levy receipts helped cover the gap. In effect, the state is collecting generously at the pump and handing part of it back through text messages. That circularity is hard to defend for long, particularly with a full-year collection goal of PKR15.264 trillion still ahead.
Fuel is not the only pressure point. Circular debt in the gas sector has passed PKR3.6 trillion ($12.9bn), and a restructuring plan agreed with the IMF still awaits the prime minister’s decision.
On supply too, QatarEnergy has told Pakistani and Bangladeshi buyers that cancelled LNG cargoes will continue through November, which leaves costlier spot purchases as the fallback.
As such, Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb has a reasonable case to make. At a recent meeting in Bangkok he briefed IMF deputy managing director Nigel Clarke on plans for targeted relief, pointing to three consecutive primary surpluses and public debt that has fallen to 68% of GDP.
The timetable now matters most. Before the tranche can be approved, Pakistan must amend the laws governing the National Telecommunication Corporation, the National Bank of Pakistan and Pakistan Railways, and the board has yet to schedule its vote.
Counting from the September launch, the three-month allocation runs out in mid-December, around the time approval would plausibly land.
If oil prices ease in the meantime, the tokens can expire quietly and both sides can claim success. If prices stay high, Sharif faces a choice between a renewal that would test the IMF’s patience and a withdrawal that would hand Jamaat-e-Islami a grievance.
How he decides will show whether Pakistan’s recent fiscal improvement is a change of habit or a lull between crises.